SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW -24
Over the holiday into last night the Asian markets gained 2.2%. Europe opened higher this AM and gained 0.6% overall. US index futures were higher over the holiday and into today’s opening. At 8:30 the NY FED was reported lower: 4.5 v 14.5. The market opened two points above Friday’s SPX 1839 close, then pulled back to 1835 by 10am. At 10am the NAHB was reported lower: 46 v 56. After that the market rallied to a slightly higher high at SPX 1843, before pulling back again. After a pullback to SPX 1839 by 2pm the market went into a trading range closing at 1841.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.60%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude rallied $2.10, Gold rose $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1828 and 1779 pivots, with resistance at the 1841 and 1869 pivots. Tomorrow: Housing starts, Building permits and the PPI all at 8:30, then the FOMC minutes at 2pm.
The market opened higher today, made a new rally high at SPX 1843, then went into consolidation mode for the rest of the day. The market did have a 6 point reversal early, the largest reversal since SPX 1809, but then rallied to the new high at 1843. With a short term negative divergence in place it looks like it will take more than a 6 point pullback to create a notable reversal. Reports on Housing and/or the FOMC minutes could do the trick. Thus far the SPX has remained within the OEW 1841 pivot range.
Short term support remains at the 1828 pivot and SPX 1814, with resistance at the 1841 pivot and SPX 1851. Short term momentum dipped after Friday’s negative divergence. The short term charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1826. Best to your trading, and hopefully the comment section re-engages itself after this post.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probable
LONG TERM: bull market