tuesday update

SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW -24

Over the holiday into last night the Asian markets gained 2.2%. Europe opened higher this AM and gained 0.6% overall. US index futures were higher over the holiday and into today’s opening. At 8:30 the NY FED was reported lower: 4.5 v 14.5. The market opened two points above Friday’s SPX 1839 close, then pulled back to 1835 by 10am. At 10am the NAHB was reported lower: 46 v 56. After that the market rallied to a slightly higher high at SPX 1843, before pulling back again. After a pullback to SPX 1839 by 2pm the market went into a trading range closing at 1841.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.60%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude rallied $2.10, Gold rose $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1828 and 1779 pivots, with resistance at the 1841 and 1869 pivots. Tomorrow: Housing starts, Building permits and the PPI all at 8:30, then the FOMC minutes at 2pm.

The market opened higher today, made a new rally high at SPX 1843, then went into consolidation mode for the rest of the day. The market did have a 6 point reversal early, the largest reversal since SPX 1809, but then rallied to the new high at 1843. With a short term negative divergence in place it looks like it will take more than a 6 point pullback to create a notable reversal. Reports on Housing and/or the FOMC minutes could do the trick. Thus far the SPX has remained within the OEW 1841 pivot range.

Short term support remains at the 1828 pivot and SPX 1814, with resistance at the 1841 pivot and SPX 1851. Short term momentum dipped after Friday’s negative divergence. The short term charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1826. Best to your trading, and hopefully the comment section re-engages itself after this post.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probable

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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136 Responses to tuesday update

  1. blackjak100 says:

    Tsla either going to $170 or $220 after earnings – JK going to get squeezed!

  2. If U a bear, don’t get too comfy

  3. pooch77 says:

    Trannies need to pop out of rounding left shoulder soon or this rally is done

  4. Lee says:

    Thanks for the B day wishes ,a little early but I’ll take em !
    Going to try and read thru the posts now.
    I’m sure u guys saw that they pulled off the scabs in NG and CL but NG did it with bad intentions just like the young Mike Tyson.
    Money is flying out and in everywhere today
    Make some money , that’s all I got to say.

  5. uncle10 says:

    Time to short some long term bonds?

    • rc1269 says:

      if you’re going to short i’d recommend the 10yr over 30yr. i think the 30yr will OP if we get a taper-driven rate selloff, as it did from april-sept of last year. more fast money in 10yr as well, free to bail on it. whereas there is a stronger natural bid for the long bond by pensions and life insurers. the 10s-30s curve is still fairly steep by historical standards. just my two cents. GL

    • mharrison60 says:

      If I read correctly you see Primary 3 has just completed at the 5 (5). Is the 200 point correction you expect for Major A or all of Primary 4?

      Also do you happen to know if the book you recommended come in ye olde paper format? Thanks

      • jobjas says:

        Yes my analysis is P3 is complete
        The book I mentioned is only in kindle version but you don’t need a kindle reader (can download to any PC)

  6. JK1987 says:

    Put my money where my mouth is.
    Short TSLA 195 here, even though 200 would be a better short.
    You hear it first, TSLA PRI V in place.
    I will place PRI V at $206.

    • torehund says:

      A little about Tesla and Norway: If you have an electric car in Norway you go for free on ferries, tunnels, and all roads, you even park it for free. Still better there is no tax on electric cars which makes it just 1/3 of the price of a comparable gasoline car. Tesla S is becoming the most sold car in Norway. Thats how strange the rules may become in a socialistic country !!!

  7. $ZLC buy out:confirmed. Zale and Signet Jewelers (SIG), now show a 441% open profit,see small cap folio http://standardpoor.wordpress.com/

  8. lunker1 says:

    These show the backtest and the congestion.
    Red fork resistance…
    Purple fork support…
    until it isn’t…
    White or Green next?

    • JK1987 says:

      Nice charts.🙂
      I like to see SPX to get to the low rd fork support at 1755.

    • lunker1 says:

      Watching SPX for a large IHS that needs an RS at 1812/14. Head at 1738 and neckline at today’s high. This RS would give another touch of the green fork median line, but would also set up a smaller H&S with 1812 as the neck and that would then need 1830 as an RS. So perhaps see 1812 then 1830 (or higher) and then 1812 and then the big decision….3 up or C down.

    • robnaardin says:

      I see you use TL’s and forks too.
      Is the yellow line the potential H&S neckline?

  9. gary61b says:

    maybe a retrace with an abc to 1827 on 60min for the spx then continue up.

  10. blackjak100 says:

    I love how everyone is talking about buying gold now just as I closed out longs and reversed short last week. This is usually a great indication prices will come down just as the waves suggest. Same goes for TSLA where everyone is saying how overvalued it is. It would not shock me to see it at $220ish after earnings today where it may top from there.

  11. pcskier says:

    @ Darell blog
    Here comes the Crash (too too too too)
    Here comes the Crash, and I say
    It’s all right

  12. lunker1 says:

    I like 1847.50 for a top here. Got the backtest of the trendline from 1738. Also still have Neg D on the 60 minute RSI and MACD….and the daily MACD is near the zero line and a reversal here could lead to a big move. Also risk on solidly down all day. QQQ, PCLN, TSLA. Not sure if this is short medium or long term but its toppy.

  13. H D says:

    would need to trade <1809 to confirm terminal, X wave , has not done well above 1840 pivot….

    • H D says:

      nice 3 wave hit, symmetry here 1830 w last 17 point hit. nuttin else to say about it. U guys have a good 1. WGC in town. hasta. C ya next week.

  14. JK1987 says:

    Should the count of Major B of PRI IV be retired?
    1). SPY new record high today.
    2). 5 waves up from 1738 can not be wave B, wave B should be 3 waves, not 5 waves.

    For me, only 1851 will stop my short positions at 1839.

    • tony caldaro says:

      The SPY is not the SPX

      • JK1987 says:

        Should the single reason of “5 waves up from 1738 can not be wave B, wave B should be 3 waves, not 5 waves” good enough to retire Major B of PRI IV?

        I am also thinking of MIL indicator, can’t fail rc’s cycle indicator.🙂

        • tony caldaro says:

          It looks impulsive but,
          1. we have not confirmed an uptrend yet
          2. we have not made a new high yet
          3. the DOW is still lagging quite a bit
          4. it can still turn into a B wave with seven waves up

      • JK1987 says:

        Tony Thanks
        Keys are DOW and SPX seven waves up.

        I will say see you below 1740. Strongly hold on to 1839 short positions.

    • 16golfer says:

      $SPX made high of 1851 in Jan while SPY only hit 1850.

      • JK1987 says:


        SPY, Daily
        Day Date Open High Low Close Volume
        === ========== ========== ========== ========== ========== ===========
        Wed 02-19-2014 183.76 184.95 183.64 184.30 38870840
        Tue 02-18-2014 184.19 184.49 183.65 184.24 80053512
        Fri 02-14-2014 182.84 184.36 182.67 184.02 96478376
        Thu 02-13-2014 180.84 183.20 180.83 183.01 100204104
        Wed 02-12-2014 182.22 182.83 181.71 182.07 94437752
        Tue 02-11-2014 180.16 182.44 180.04 181.98 121638248
        Mon 02-10-2014 179.70 180.07 179.21 180.01 91946424
        Fri 02-07-2014 178.31 179.87 177.73 179.68 170701360
        Thu 02-06-2014 175.58 177.48 175.22 177.48 132381192
        Wed 02-05-2014 174.79 175.56 173.71 175.17 163706400
        Tue 02-04-2014 174.95 175.84 174.11 175.38 164770624
        Mon 02-03-2014 177.95 178.37 173.83 174.17 254375280
        Fri 01-31-2014 177.02 179.29 176.92 178.18 194573744
        Thu 01-30-2014 178.86 179.81 178.26 179.23 116212464
        Wed 01-29-2014 177.56 178.55 176.88 177.35 215242496
        Tue 01-28-2014 178.14 179.30 178.12 179.07 108907232
        Mon 01-27-2014 179.06 179.52 177.12 178.01 179958576
        Fri 01-24-2014 181.60 181.66 178.83 178.89 208598528
        Thu 01-23-2014 183.36 183.40 181.82 182.79 132299560
        Wed 01-22-2014 184.49 184.57 183.91 184.30 60761376
        Tue 01-21-2014 184.70 184.77 183.05 184.18 88548856
        Fri 01-17-2014 184.10 184.45 183.32 183.63 103968168
        Thu 01-16-2014 184.28 184.66 183.83 184.42 72091992
        Wed 01-15-2014 184.10 184.94 183.71 184.66 98370072
        Tue 01-14-2014 182.28 183.77 181.95 183.67 104624568
        Mon 01-13-2014 183.71 184.18 181.34 181.68 149540480
        Fri 01-10-2014 183.95 184.22 183.01 184.14 102002448
        Thu 01-09-2014 184.10 184.13 182.79 183.64 90544640
        Wed 01-08-2014 183.45 183.83 182.89 183.52 96504272
        Tue 01-07-2014 183.09 183.79 182.95 183.48 86040200
        Mon 01-06-2014 183.47 183.56 182.08 182.36 106889848
        Fri 01-03-2014 183.21 183.60 182.63 182.88 81352048
        Thu 01-02-2014 183.98 184.07 182.48 182.92 119416752
        Tue 12-31-2013 184.07 184.69 183.93 184.69 86171800

      • 16golfer says:

        I rounded the SPY of 1/15 to 185.0 when it was 1849.40. Close enough in horseshoes. lol

  15. bobhopium says:

    Greetings all…Just throwing out my thoughts into the mix :-
    I am watching for a reversal in the Dow @16325/16350 (multiple resistance) and am looking for deep test of early feb low…..Gl to all.

  16. buddyglove says:

    ….Just like 1929 price action… 🙂

  17. rc1269 says:

    curious, would the market be stronger or weaker if the economy was actually doing well…?

    it’s been five years of the equity markets “looking past” weakness and bad data, much like they are now about the ‘bad weather’ excuse du jour. always grasping on that hope for the growth that has yet to come. it’s about 3 years too late to still be using the ‘wall of worry’ excuse. we’ve bid up the market 175% in anticipation of results – will we care if we don’t ever get them?

    i wonder if central banks have ever considered the possibility that – despite knowing everything they can about deflation and the great depression – they are, in fact, unable to single-handedly conquer the greater deflationary pressures. it’s monetary policy vs. global consciousness. i wonder which one wins in the end.

    the greater fool is alive and well

    • tony caldaro says:

      global consciousness

    • uncle10 says:

      RC , IMO—— “The market” doesn’t care about any “data” or “fundamentals” etc..
      Can you tell me when it has in the past??

      • rc1269 says:

        sure – how far back do we have economic and market data…?

        i agree ‘the market’ is in essence merely a reflection of degrees of fear and greed. but those emotions are ultimately driven by one’s perception of the state of things. and the state of things, is driven by ‘fundamentals.’

        a technological boom drove amazing growth to an entire industry, and created even new ones, in the 1990s and 2000s. is that not fundamental? or is the invention of the internet and the fact you can stream your movies over netflix now just part of my perception?

        the urbanization and modernization of the Chinese population has brought new consumers to help rekindle some flagging domestic industries. am i just dreaming that there are thousands of Fords cruising around Beijing now, when there were about 23 when i lived there in 1997? that is fundamental.

        the market collaped in 2008-2009 due to excessive fear. but Lehman Brothers also was a big bank, and they went bankrupt, and that’s a real event. people lost jobs and lost homes; i would wager those are pretty fundamental events to those individuals.

        one shouldn’t be too enamored with the ‘market is always right’ and it’s just ‘fear and greed’ concepts to the point of complete resignation of the real economy. the concepts of ‘market’, ‘fear’, greed’ and ‘fundamentals’ can and do diverge from one another for quite some time, but they also do re-connect and come back in synch now and then.

      • uncle10 says:

        RC, my question was too vague. yes there are things ( internet, China, Lehman etc. ) that affect the market. IMO, the current news, data, fundamentals etc. don’t tell you anything about where the market is going.

    • H D says:

      I must live in a bubble? Despite what the news says, what I see with my own eyes, my local economy is doing great.

      • rc1269 says:

        it sounds like you are, yes. i think on a national level the economy is ‘fine’ or ‘OK.’ great? no, not hardly. not unless we’re ready to fully move the yardstick on our country’s growth and employment potential from where it has been in recent decades.
        is it possible that your bar for greatness has been lowered? or is it possible that you mostly witness the healthy state of the wealthy consumer? i know this is certainly the case with me. sure, whole foods is booming when i go there and spend $200 on three bags of groceries, with the rest of the upper middle class who own stocks and houses. but middle class youth and the poor are in the worst state i can remember in my lifetime. but i guess as long as we ignore about half the country then things look pretty great. everyone i meet on the ski slopes and golf course seem to be doing just fine. 😉

      • H D says:

        golf and ski, ha great point! Agree, but some of the fresh outta college on daddy’s dime crowd have some issues thinking the only work they will take is a 6 figure job. They will learn sometime. There r jobs.

        As far as SPX, it hasn’t done so well above 1840 pivot

      • How low have we fallen, sent out our good jobs to other countries, and now should be fine with low wage jobs… Before you know it, the next generation will be happy not to have empty stomachs… then all we have to lose is the world reserve currency title. stick a fork in it.

        While other countries advanced, we fought over who is the socialist and who is the patriot.

      • H D says:

        SW, bringing this back to the stock market. Look around the world, Ukraine, Turkey, Egypt, Libya, Russia, Greece, Brazil, even England. So much civil unrest. USA easily world reserve and our market shows this. I don’t think the argument is socialist or patriot but we can clealry rule out trickle down economics when Dimon gets a 20M$ raise and fires 17000 people in 2013:mrgreen:

      • lunker1 says:

        HD I think the Sunbelt Arizona and Florida took things the hardest but now that the foreclosures are all bought up strong demand is back esp w low mortgage rates. Plus the rough winter has pushed a lot of people south.

  18. Moment of truthiness… an inch or so to go

  19. jobjas says:

    target reached.

  20. GM Tony, all. These X waves think they can ignore the pivots? 12th green stick on ESH. Will get massive retrace. JMHO

  21. purplember says:

    4 pts down on S&P = buying opportunity now LOL

  22. waddaguess says:

    4 of 1 or 2 of 3 from the 1743 low. GL all.

  23. ko68 says:

    Tony, does this really look like a B-wave?

  24. pooch77 says:


  25. rc1269 says:

    got all the bad news out of the way for the day; must be time to put our rally hats on

  26. 777daimon says:

    new highs coming….. not a ‘B’ wave… not in my house🙂

  27. 1/2 of february 2faced long folio closed today with 9.52% profit: http://standardpoor.wordpress.com

  28. lunker1 says:

    SPX intraday IHS good for 1846?
    SPX backtests broken support TL then dump?
    TLT IHS needs an RS to 106.5 and then B of 2 up to 108.7 or is this W3?

    • lunker1 says:

      just forked SPX and 1809 was a backtest of the median line (bullish)
      now in a congestion zone. above 1846/48 is clear sailing.

  29. bouraq says:

    Steep channels breaking down:

  30. M1 says:

    Tony, at some point back in july of 2011 the count was suggesting a small primary wave iv correction. Do you remember ?
    What abt now ? any chance this correction was actually primary wave IV ?

  31. torehund says:

    Finally added the bulkier I have takes about today. Many stocks starting to reach a point where breakout is possible. Lots of skepticism out there and good valuations in shipping and commodity producers.
    I think the gold miners are opting for a lower high and most will nearly reach the previous top from 5 months, making that lower top I would expect a higher low to emerge. However I don’t want to sell my G-miners before potential is taken out and gold reaches about 1400.

    • RDC says:

      Don’t worry, nobody is asking you to sell G-miners.

      • torehund says:

        RDC: Exciting with gold and the miners, if it can make a higher high..Chart has a lot of damage so skepticism is warranted. However if the greenback heads south everything is possible. But it would take softer numbers out of the US and stronger out of the rest of the world. OR fear and tumults, Europe is attempting to eat its way towards “the Russian bear”, don’t think Vladimir likes that…

      • RDC says:

        Nice video🙂

      • torehund says:

        Silence its so silent in here, and I am not liking to break the 3 post rule..but I do it for you, and after all you are the Americans that deserve to take part of what you contributed to build for more than a decade ago..Its CBMX and ROSG, remember its no buying advice.

  32. Jennifer says:

    Thanks Tony!

    U.S. stocks closed mixed on Coca-Cola quarterly earnings

  33. Hi Tony

    You making point that it could be Major B or could be start of new highs and rally higher…

    What levels are you looking for if its a Major B? Any levels to upside or downside on SPX ?

    Thank you

  34. jobjas says:

    Expect a massive fall after completion of this 5 waves [around 1845]

  35. mjtplayer says:

    A boring day after morning POMO, largest POMO day of Feb this morning at $3.5b – $4.25b helping to goose markets from 10am to 11am, after that is was dead quiet and very light volume. All eyes on the Fed minutes tomorrow, no surprises though, more taper coming at both March and April meetings – IMO

  36. tommyboys says:

    Problem with site today? No way to post… Looks fixed here.

  37. thanks Tony, flat day = hard to say, either topping temporarily or the usual consolidation before another high. Lots of tickers green today though. I will be watching TSLA tomorrow. I have a major 3 target in the $209-$218 range… If it gets there intraday tomorrow I’d be cautious, but if AH is blast off anyways then what I thought were minor 3 and 4 were only minute i and ii…

  38. budfox9450 says:

    Thank you, Tony….

  39. pcskier says:

    $indu is forming a head and shoulder formation. Friday after thanksgiving LT shoulder, dec 31 head, last fri RT shoulder. Fed minutes tomorrow should create sell off, more taper on the way.

    • darell blog says:

      The rationale you cited is exactly the reason why the hs wont come to be – too may eyes are on it. The simple fact is that the trend is up and thats that, it aint over till its over.

      • pcskier says:

        Maybe, but if it starts to sell off and the algos turn south, if smart people believe we will make new lows, it’s going to be quick. How are we going to reflate to new highs with less QE?? That is the multi trillion dollar question.

    • 777daimon says:

      @ pcskier:

      please assess the so-called “H&S” in Nasdaq daily chart…. write here your conclusions, pls, so all here can understand the situation !
      hint: watch the so-called “right shoulder” height and the former “Head” ….
      Thank you!

      • pcskier says:

        Dow 30 daily not Nasdaq. My call is when the fed minutes are released the market sells. To me the topping process is maturing, smart money had plenty of opportunity to sell at high levels. I am not tech savey as you Damon I don’t understand your full question sorry if my response does not address your question.

      • pcskier says:

        Sorry should of write topping process is matured. Thank you!

      • pcskier says:

        Wrote not write, not sure if that was a typo or just poor grammar🙂

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