friday update

SHORT TERM: down opening then rally extends, DOW +127

Overnight the Asian markets finished mixed. Europe opened lower but gained 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight, then dipped after early economic reports. At 8:30 Export (+0.2% v +0.3%)/Import(+3% v -0.1%) prices were reported higher. At 9:15 Industrial production was reported lower: -0.3% v +0.3%. The market opened three points below yesterday’s SPX 1830 close. It then bounced to SPX 1831, and pulled back to 1826 all in the first 15 minutes. After that it started to resume the rally. At 10am Consumer sentiment was reported unchanged: 81.2 v 81.2. At 3pm the SPX hit 1842. It then pulled back to SPX 1838 before ending the week at 1839.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.65%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.10%. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude slipped 5 cents, Gold rallied $16, and the USD was lower. Last night the FED reported an increase in the M1-multiplier: 0.723 v 0.699. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 53.3% v 54.2%. Medium term support remains at the 1828 and 1779 pivots, with resistance at the 1841 and 1869 pivots. Monday is a holiday in the US.

The market opened lower today, dipped 5 points early, then rallied to SPX 1842. For those counting, the SPX has rallied 90 points since last Wednesday’s 1752 close (the day of the 1738 low). And, it has only had two decent pullbacks along the way. Clearly five waves up: 1788-1777-1827-1809-1842. With waves 1 and 3 equal (50 pts.), wave 5 is likely to be shorter. A short term negative divergence is still building, as the market again hit extremely overbought today. If the count is correct, the next pullback could take the SPX back to near the 1809 level.

Short term support is at the OEW 1828 pivot and SPX 1814, with resistance at the 1841 and 1869 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought again. The short term charts remain positive, since SPX 1765, with the reversal level now 1819. Best to your three-day weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probable

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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39 Responses to friday update

  1. 777daimon says:

    Lol, aside from SPX 500 and other US markets, one piece of news from eastern Europe regarding Romania – part of EU.
    This country managed to show 2 big and cheeky middle fingers to stagnation/recession in EU :
    q4/2013: gdp: +5.2%
    all 2013: gdp: +3.5%
    WAAAAAY above France, Germany, UK, Netherland and others.

    With this kind of numbers it’s no.1 in EU both on q4, and also for all 2013.
    Greetings to the new tiger of EU and to the main “new Europe” leader!

  2. gary61b says:

    Updated chart of TFwith the possible ED of the 5th.

    • lunker1 says:

      SPXU made the low because leveraged ETFs decay faster than the underlying index/ETF…SPX/SPY. if you’re counting SPXU then you’d need to start from mid-2009 and it doesn’t look like much to me.

      Do you have a Primary count chart for SPXU or SPX?

  3. Wow. What a market. Next week should be another action packed week. After so many days up in a row, 100 points in the sp. I’m looking for a drop early next week down to 1815.-1790. Then the fun begins. Jobs reports have been coming in at 75k and 113k vs expectations of 180k the whole east coast snowed in for months. Earnings estimates coming down. One would expect a nice C wave down to new lows. (as long as a new high isnt made in the sp). But the buy the dips folks won’t allow that to happen. This is the best pyrimid scame i have seen in a long time. You cant loose. Traders beleive if things continue to suck, the fed will comtinue tapering. So after we reach 1800 ish say hellow to 1890 ish buy the end of this month. People dont realize The fed is done. So unless we get a 1929 crash down to 1600 next week, it’s up up up and away until march fed meeting

    Looking forward to Tony’s Saturday uptade.

  4. torehund says:

    And one final post, as I feel that I have to be giving back something to justify my presence: Look at ROSG how much RSI its giving away every day and still advancing; not sayin more folks….

  5. M1 says:

    int i and int ii in light green at the spx chart ? are you turning bullish ?

    • lunker1 says:

      Since Tuesday night he has said medium-term probably up trending again.

      • M1 says:

        This huge rally was expected. I suppose everyone knew that and went long, not short.
        I just read marketup’s post. It looks like he went short and got squeezed. It’s a pity. He must read the posts.
        At this point a 50% pullback is very possible so 1790 could be support. And I would not be surprise if we see that selloff in one single day.
        Do not hurry shorting the market. I think we have plenty of time.
        Have a great weekend.

  6. robnaardin says:

    Thanks Tony

    Negative divs on the hourly macd too.
    If higher highs are set neg divs on weekly macd too.

    Something about 1850, 1737 and this wave plus possible neg divs on weekly macd reminds me of the last wave to 1219 before the big drop to 1010 in 2010.

  7. Greg Polites says:

    Hi Tony; This week both gold and the SP500 developed overbought conditions for all three of the indicators I use for buy/sell signals. This suggests a minor retracement or sidewards move followed by a move to new highs for this rally. The Dow is close behind. Looking forward to your weekend update – cheers, Greg

  8. torehund says:

    Concerning gold: 1400 looks more or less given as it will be an abc up from bottom. That aim reached it could just build on the excitement. Sure miners are geared to whats happening, many small ones going from break even or worse into profit in no time. How rigged the market is you can clearly see on AVM, stock was up 10 percent until close today, and then without any discernible trade they just closed it 10 percent lower. Machines gotta make their waves regardless…c

    • torehund says:

      Concerning bulkers, well that bullish harami cross hasn’t worked YET on some like GNK, but that does just say its slumbering….. No trading advice on these extremely volatile bulk plays though…
      Good weekend to Tony and all of the gang in here.

  9. I gotta laugh, a weekly and a half ago u said downtrend, now 100 points later ur saying uptrend probably under way. Geez u must have deep pockets getting short squeezed. Or ur paid by hedge funds to come up with this babble to get others caught in their trap. People do ur own analysis this OEW is a waste of time.

    • budfox9450 says:

      I think, that commen.t is uncalled for. Way
      out-of-bounds. And, I do believe. That most
      here, make their own analysis, as well. Yours,
      well it falls into the “JNK” investment grade.

    • pooch77 says:

      That Scotty ???

    • torehund says:

      M and U and D: One extra post for me in defense of OEW, we are working on probabilities all the time, and Tonys blog is a perfect substrate so that an uptrend isn’t called until it has matured out with a certain degree of certainty. Sure if you only play indexes you have lost some percents, but why don’t go for stocks that haven’t yet participated from this uptrend. Or you could have considered Tonys interim bottom in gold and made close to 80 percent in NUGT. I think you can blame yourself if not making any…

    • lunker1 says:

      Tuesday night Tony said medium-term probably up trending since SPX cleared 1814. Also Tony has said over and over this is not a daytrading blog. It’s a medium-term to long-term trend blog. Throughout the entire correction his long-term view remained bull market. So you don’tunderstand English?

    • robnaardin says:

      Not a waste of time at all. It is an awesome trend following tool. Think of it as OET instead of OEW.

    • 777daimon says:

      ”Or ur paid by hedge funds to come up with this babble to get others caught in their trap.”
      this is not a fair and correct comment.

      I’m following for some time Mr’Caldaro’s site and his positions are fairly presented and according to the same technical framework.
      I learned a lot from Tony’s work – and still learning.
      I know that his technical work has some flaws (on short and very short term trading – days/hours/minutes) but it’s great pure-gold on medium and long term trading (weeks/months).
      I rely on Tony’s site as a great INVESTMENT, NOT short-term TRADING info source.
      The man knows what he’s doing.
      What are we, ha? Are we killing hedge fund traders?
      We are some guys and gals, mainly retailers with a few money in our hands. We are not dealing with milions and billions $. What does that means? => We naturally CAN’T be traders, ONLY investors – we can only work on weeks/months timeframe – and that assumes selling a topping process (so a topping area observed in days/weeks, ok, not hours? not a vivid rising trend , God dammit!) and buying V shaped bottoms from special areas (50 DMA, 100 DMA, 200 DMA and others on weekly timeframes….) …also .. buying a rising trend after the market rode the daily lower BB and it recovers above 10MA 60 min chart and mid BB 60 min chart …. those are basics!

      The fact that from time to time I present here totally different opinions is not because I don’t understand Tony’s professional value, but because I use a different set of instruments mainly based on pure TA (and also on EW and OEW and others – cycles, astro stuff and others) a tutti-frutti stuff :).
      As exemple:
      1. Last week’s weekly candle on SPX 500 was a 101 exemple of bullish hammer…. how the f**k could you short that? Only if you would hate your money you would short that! Also after second week provided bullish follow-through to the upside!

      2. DOW after a short trip under 200 DMA, recovered and …bang! above 200DMA …that was the second warning to bears!

      3. when SPX 500 recovered it’s 20 and 50 DMA along with weekly mid BB line , HOW ON EARTH COULD SOMEONE STILL SHORT IT !?!? …only because someone is telling that “we are in a b wave and a mighty “c” is going to kill us all ?!?!?!?!?!?!?!” Lol!

      It’s TA basics!

      Don’t treat Tony’s technics as Perfect! They are not! But they are the best available, flaws included!

      • budfox9450 says:

        Ya know. Maybe there is some room for OEW blog
        improvement? Meaning, more clear statements on
        trend, long term, intermediate, and short term. As for
        me, I agree with all the comments made, this far.
        Do not accept trashing OEW, at all…..Bud

  10. mharrison60 says:

    Thanks Tony. A caution for the Bull case is that DJ World Index, Nikkei, FTSE and Dax are showing as down trending.

    Of course you have posted examples in the past of US markets uptrending, whilst a high % of international markets downtrend. Taking a big picture global view, something adverse has occurred in international markets in recent months, and which could well act as a limitation on how high we go if we still are in PIII.


  11. lunker1 says:

    NAZ double top / double headed H&S
    QQQs megaphone from late Dec completed today or v soon
    IWM backtesting LT TL from Nov 2012
    UPRO right at the .887 to the dime

    Last Chance Saloon….

    • CygnetNoir says:

      So I take you’re thinking we are near a tradable top, Lunker?

    • CygnetNoir says:

      I would agree that if the bears are going to make a stand, this is a good spot. DJ-30 rallied right up to the Nov high/Jan breakdown and paused. Doesn’t mean a reversal is at hand, but if it gets back above there then the Dow becomes more likely yo at least double top, if not make new all time highs.

  12. blackjak100 says:

    Thanks tony! wave analysis is clearly subjective because I see it as clearly 3 waves up 1827-1809-1842. A clear 5-3-5 so far. One clear pullback of 17 pts which lasted a total of about 7-8 hrs. Certainly a mixed picture!

  13. pooch77 says:

    Tony target 1869 pivot then down to 1809???

  14. llerias7 says:

    Thanks, Tony. The coming “small correction” to 1809 level would be a minor (2) of 5 of PIII?

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