SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW -31
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 1820 close. The market continued higher until 10am, when it hit exactly SPX 1827 and began to pullback. The pullback found support around noon at SPX 1816, and the market tried to rally again. The FED released this around noon: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20140212a.htm. At 1:30 the SPX hit 1822, then pulled back to 1816 again by 3pm. After that the market bounced around between SPX 1817 and 1820, then closed at 1819.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.20%. Bonds lost 11 ticks, Crude added 30 cents, Gold rose $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1779 and 1699 pivots, with resistance at the 1828 and 1841 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30 along with Retail sales, then at 10am Business inventories and FED chair Yellen’s senate testimony.
The market opened slightly higher today, rallied right to the symmetrical SPX 1827, then pulled back for the rest of the day. We can now count four waves from the SPX 1738 low: 1788-1777-1827-1816 so far. Oddly enough, the two rallies were exactly 50 points, and the pullbacks exactly 11 points. The first pullback, 1788-1777, was a quick zigzag. And the current pullback, 1827-1816, looks like a flat. Therefore, this rally continues to look impulsive.
Short term support remains at SPX 1814 and SPX 1800, with resistance at the 1828 and 1841 pivots. Short term momentum backed off to neutral from wildly extreme overbought levels. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1802. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probably underway
LONG TERM: bull market