monday update

SHORT TERM: market drifts higher, DOW +8

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened two points below Friday’s SPX 1797 close. During the first few minutes the market dipped to SPX 1793, bounced to 1798, and then began to pullback further. At 11am the SPX hit 1792, for a small pullback, and then started working its way higher. At 2:30 the SPX hit 1800, pulled back a bit, then closed at 1800 for the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.55%. Bonds lost 1 tick, Crude added 5 cents, Gold rose $7, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1779 and 1699 pivots, with resistance at the 1828 and 1840 pivots. Tomorrow: Wholesale inventories at 10am, and Janet Yellen makes her first public appearance as FED chair, testifying before Congress with the semi-annual monetary policy report.

The market opened slightly lower to start the week. Then after bouncing to Friday’s SPX 1798 high the market pulled back to 1792. After that it made a new rally high at short term resistance of SPX 1800, and closed there. This was somewhat of a consolidation day ending with a slightly higher high. Parameters remain: over SPX 1814 uptrend probably underway, below 1779 pivot range downtrend resumes.

Short term support is at the 1779 pivot and SPX 1768, with resistance at SPX 1800 and SPX 1814. Short term momentum backed off some, after the Friday’s extreme overbought condition, and now appears to be setting up a negative divergence. The short term OEW charts remains positive with the reversal level now SPX 1782. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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149 Responses to monday update

  1. Lee says:

    You have the patience and attitude of a Saint , thanks for setting a great example for these kids and us old fogeys.;)

  2. blubrd67 says:

    “This does not necessarily mean new highs, but at least a B wave of one higher degree.
    If new highs, then the DOW counts wins.”

    You mentioned a few times “a B wave of one higher degree.”
    I don’t know if I’m the only one confused here, but can you clarify higher degree you have in mind?
    If by exceeding 1814 we are no longer considering Primary IV, and not considering Int ii with DOW count, what higher degree count are we in?

  3. Another run for the highs, NDX leading the way!
    I believe we have just seen major 4 and are in Major 5 now. I would now monitor the market for breath deterioration and divergences for the start of Primary 4.
    Anything is possible now,as always is in the fifth wave, although I expect NDX to reach the highs for sure, but DJI might very well truncate. Just speculating.

  4. uncle10 says:

    I thought markets went down faster than up but not this market! Strong like bull…. made a few dollars on GS today. Was wondering if it was ever going to move again….. hehehe want to short here, but I am chicken.

    • uncle, it seems at present, you are correct in your analysis that this upward push has been strong and taken place over a short period of time. However, I try to remember that the last downtrend that just took place in about 10 days or so, erased over 70 days worth of gains. It seems this market can turn on a dime, which makes me want to give as much credence to the count of iii of Maj 5 of P3, as well as iii of Maj 3 of P3, also v of both Maj 3 and Maj 5 of P3. Given the strength of the upward move, your being ‘chicken’ is not without wisdom. This is the first time I can remember having 4 possible wave counts for Spx on the board at one time. LLAP.

      On a different subject, to all who are Baby Boomers, the death of Shirley Temple makes even a Baby Boomer Vulcan feel old. Perhaps, unlike the other greats that have gone before her in the past few years (big Heston fan here), Temple was, and still seems the perpetual child (star), therefore, adding to the despair. But what a tremendous 2nd half of her life she had. Ambassador to both Ghana and Czechoslovakia! What a truly interesting life she led.

      “As rose shall bloom, it then will fade.
      So dies a youth, so dies the fairest maid.”
      WS, from Romeo and Juliet

  5. 30 week MA works again….

    Also last Friday I sent you all this updated wave count, also now working well… 1875 looks like the target, 5 of 5 of Major 3

  6. jparkins10 says:

    It’s starting to look like a second corrective structure failure in a row (the truncated Major 4 @ 1627 being the prior one)
    The big boyz are sure making it hard for us all.

    • jparkins10, I think I will add this Major 4 count to my board also. Don’t know if it’s a true truncation, but who knows anymore. That makes 5 possible counts under consideration. LLAP.

  7. H D says:

    Time for a gut check on ur discipline. 60 min RSI and 1828 pivot.

  8. Spx within 1828 pivot area now.

    BTW, I think JY testified well before Committee. Doesn’t mean I agree with everything she said, but I think she did well & will be popular. I don’t think there will be increase in rates anytime soon.

    PSS: Just spoke to a friend in Minnesota. Bundle up all creatures eastbound. Everyone is tired of winter. Likely a shortage of agri commodities come April. Groceries will probably rise significantly.

    TTY Wednesday. LLAP.

  9. You see how they are crying to slow down the rally, correction, correction…. is soon…

    They just need to buy back what they sold, and say, the rally is real…

  10. Good afternoon everyone. Tony, it has been a long time since I have posted and wanted to get your thoughts on where we are today. Thanks for all you do here. David

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