thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap up and go rally, DOW +188

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.6%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 331k v 348k, but the Trade deficit was reported larger: -$38.7bn v -$34.3bn. Also before the open FED governor Tarullo’s senate testimony was released: The market gapped up to SPX 1757 at the open. The SPX had closed at 1752 yesterday. In the first few minutes the market cleared SPX 1759, and continued higher. At 11am the SPX hit 1771. Then went sideways for a couple of hours hitting SPX 1766 by 1:30. After that it tried to move higher again. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1774 and closed at 1773.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.20%. Bonds lost 9 ticks, Crude added 40 cents, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1699 and 1680 pivots, with resistance at the 1779 and 1828 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly Payrolls at 8:30 (est. +150k to +170k), and Unemployment rate (est. 6.5% to 6.7%), then Consumer credit at 3pm.

The market gapped up at the opening and just kept on rising with just one five point pullback around midday. Nice rally. The market has just had its best rally since the decline began from SPX 1851. The previous best was the 28 points for Minor b in Int. A. With short term momentum now quite overbought, we would expect a pullback soon. Then another rally into the Int. wave B high. Still targeting the SPX 1790’s, with the target 1794.

Short term support is now at SPX 1768 and SPX 1746, with resistance at the 1779 pivot and SPX 1800. Short term momentum ended the day quite overbought. The short term OEW charts turned positive today, with the reversal level now SPX 1766. Best to your NFP trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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183 Responses to thursday update

  1. torehund says:

    Its all about miners from here, I think :). Its pretty easy to forecast appreciation if one knows how much they produce and the average cost per ounce. A company like Avocet which is a small miner produces 130 000 ounces a year at cost 1200 usd an ounce. At 1300 usd per ounce they make 13 mill in profit annually, take that and a conservative pe 10 and there you have a mcap of 130 mill, or about 4 times the mcap of today. Point is GOLD is now moving into a zone where many producers can make a profit, and how extremely heard these companies are towards swings is easy to see.
    Also I am thinking Dry bulk, Genco has a bullish harami cross, it may not pan out immediately but is one of the more reliable candlesticks.

    …good weekend to all, bears and bulls !

  2. I will buy the call options caldaro says this is not a downtrend and changes the week end view. enjoy all

  3. Sucker rally!!!

    Debt limit upon us all!!!

  4. uncle10 says:

    Wonder y goldman not part of the party?

  5. blackjak100 says:

    Since I’ve seen a ton of comparisons to today’s DJIA to 1929 (including Demark’s), let’s not forget the 1929 DJIA rallied straight up for 4 days before crashing. Today is day 4 from the closing low. I’m not suggesting we are crashing Monday, but simply updating the comparison.

  6. pbnj123 says:

    Pretty strong move for a B wave don’t you think?
    It still fits and as HD pointed out there is a lot of similarities to this and PRIMARY 1’s A-B.
    Would love to know what your thinking.
    Thank you

  7. CygnetNoir says:

    My longs are strong, my shorts are wrong, and I’m wasting my time being flat. Spent another day with Bunyan’s pet Babe. Mark Wedloe told me he’d be dropping Ben off for mw to watch, but I told him I had my hands full. I can do no Ben-sitting this weekend, as it looks like I’ll be holding onto Babe for a few more days. Tony, this does not look very “B” wave, does it?

  8. llerias7 says:

    Very strong move up today, by any standards…has legs to last longer than most think…

  9. lunker1 says:

    “The biggest challenge after success is shutting up about it.”

    Taking my girls soccer team to see the US Women’s National Team vs Russia tomorrow. Cool w the Olympics starting. USA! USA! USA!

  10. RDC says:

    Tony, Outstanding Call SPX 1794.

  11. fionamargaret says:

    …on the one hand you have poverty in Africa etc., and on the other, crumbling infrastructure in the country that created your billions.
    Perhaps GOOG, AAPL, MSFT etc., could chip in to help create the US of tomorrow, and in the process create jobs which would benefit everyone, also helping reduce the divide between rich and poor.
    All good.

    • tony caldaro says:

      thx Fiona,
      The best thing, imo, is for these mega companies to break up into smaller companies.
      This, at first, would create lots of white collar management jobs: which we lack.
      Then secondly, as the smaller companies grew, they would create lots and lots of jobs worldwide.

      • fionamargaret says:

        I was thinking more of the younger unemployed acquiring construction skills, and so on out.
        Think about giving back to America if America has made you rich.

        • tony caldaro says:

          Infrastructure is temporary work.
          Headquarter these smaller companies in rural areas.
          That would create a steady boom in building construction and housing.
          Spread out America =)

  12. manunidhi21 says:

    TONY !
    1794..whats the max to it(1799) ?
    and for seeing 1680 how much time three weeks ?

  13. 777daimon says:

    happy to be long :)…sorry for those short.
    but as fas as I see Primary IV is a closed issue.
    We are still in Primary III.

  14. JK1987 says:

    Excellent call on the update
    “Still targeting the SPX 1790′s, with the target 1794.”

    Wasted 20 handles on my long positions, sold yesterday at 1774 for 33 handles.

    hod at 1793.94
    Now I shorted at 1763.5, tight stop.

  15. liborval says:

    spx 1800 anybody?

  16. RDC says:

    Buy VIX it is cheap. Next week will be whole different ball game.

  17. gtoptions says:

    SPY ~ 50% Retrace hit @ 179.32
    A close over last weeks high @ 179.81 sets up an ultra bullish weekly candle. Not holding my breath but, We’ll see.
    GL & Good weekend to all

  18. blackjak100 says:

    My last post as well, but I see a LS and now starting to see a head…….

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