tuesday update

SHORT TERM: turnaround tuesday, DOW +91

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.6%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Durable goods orders were reported lower: -4.3% v +3.4%, then at 9am Case-Shiller was reported higher: +13.7% v +13.6%. The market opened one point above yesterday’s SPX 1782 close, immediately dipped to 1779, then began to rally. At 10am Consumer confidence was reported higher: 80.7 v 78.1. Around 11am the SPX hit 1794, yesterday’s high, and began to pullback. At 11:30 the market found some support at SPX 1785, and tried to rally again. At 3:30 the SPX it 1794 again, third time, and then dipped to close at 1793.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.60% and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 8 ticks, Crude rose $1.55, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1779 and 1699 pivots, with resistance at the 1828 and 1841 pivots. Tomorrow: the FOMC statement at 2pm.

The market opened higher today, as the FOMC meeting got underway. It dipped right after the open, then gradually worked it way higher for the rest of the day. From the SPX 1851 high, since many have asked, we see three waves down to SPX 1773: 1832-1847-1773. Each of the declines were also three waves. From the SPX 1773 low we see: 1794-1779-1794-1785-1794 so far. This could also be a series of threes within three waves as well. Since the decline held support at the lower end of the 1779 pivot range, and is trying to get overbought short term, we have had at least a short term low. To be followed by something a bit more meaningful probably starting tomorrow. Probabilities still suggest this was just a short term low in a medium term decline.

Short term support is at the 1779 pivot and SPX 1768, with resistance at SPX 1800 and SPX 1814. Short term momentum continues to rise from extremely oversold. The short term OEW charts remain negative with the reversal level now SPX 1805. Best to your trading the often volatile FOMC statement tomorrow!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend weakened

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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150 Responses to tuesday update

  1. ewtoriginal says:

    If, and only if, my thesis and view is correct,and the test is first done at 1730 on a gap down to trap 1770 dip buyers, then the market will ALSO not allow a proper hedging period for those not hedged. And, should the drop be something larger, those in denial will say,as always ” Its too late to sell now”.


  2. CygnetNoir says:

    DJ-30 15700 holds … for now.


  3. Lee says:

    Everybody having fun yet ?
    This is why they play the games Great market no matter ur “opinion”
    Get all u can while u can .


  4. rc1269 says:

    well that was fun. see ya guys at 1812. i’m over limit. peace


  5. elmer510 says:

    Another 10 billion USD of tapering. Stockmarket reacts negative.
    SPX now at 1772.


  6. rc1269 says:

    1768 i’m lookin at you


  7. Hi Tony!
    Just one thought that I cannot get rid of.
    This Primary 2 wave, that we have decided to be an “elongated flat”, might perhaps have been a somewhat odd zig-zag instead. That would give us another map for the P4 developement.
    Then P4 would rather be a flat corrective wave. Meaning that major A should go straight down to 14.800 in Dow and then turn upwards in the B-wave to a new ATH.
    Just a thought to keep in mind if the 15.700 level breaks down.
    We will soon see.

    Best wishes Sverker


    • robnaardin says:

      Thanks sverker.
      I was wondering if p4 was going to be simple or complex..

      The 50 day bollinger band width is very narrow. Near 5. In 2011 it was near 5 in the summer, In spring 2012 it was near 5 too, both resulted in corrections. This summer it was near 5 and resulted in a rally.

      The configuration of the 20 and 50 ma’s says a correction has started.


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