tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening then choppy day, DOW -44

Over the extended weekend the Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened higher today but finished flat. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up to SPX 1847 at the open. The SPX had closed at 1839 on Friday. In the first few minutes the SPX hit 1849, and then began to pullback. Just after 11am it closed the opening gap, and then declined to SPX 1832 by 12pm. Setting up a positive short term divergence at the low, the market then started to rally. At 2:30 the SPX hit 1844, pulled back to 1841 by 3:30, then ended the day at 1844.

For the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.70%. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude gained 65 cents, Gold dropped $12, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains rises to the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1884 pivots. Tomorrow: no economic reports scheduled.

Choppy day! The market gapped up at the open, hit SPX 1849, then gave it all back and then some to 1832. Then it rallied again. The pullback from SPX 1851 has now extended into three waves: 1835-1849-1832. The SPX found support again within the 1828 pivot range, and then rallied over the 1841 pivot for the second time. With the short term positive divergence at today’s low, probabilities suggest Minute wave iii is now underway.

Short term support is at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1851 and the 1869 pivot. Short term momentum finished the day above neutral. The short term OEW charts flip-flopped again today, ending positive, with the reversal level now SPX 1841. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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97 Responses to tuesday update

  1. waddaguess says:

    Anyone else tired of 1846?

  2. bobhopium says:

    Dow chart looks ugly…goona try a small short here….GL to us all

    • pooch77 says:

      Would not short,1 hour just turned to upside.Just my opinion of course.In fact mad i missed the buy on the hourly as i had to leave for work

  3. uncle10 says:

    No 10 for the bots?? uh oh, watch out for the angry bots!!

  4. kisshu2 says:

    anybody think we see an inside day today and chopy markets until fomc rate decision next week

  5. Brent Calis says:

    Hi Tony,

    I’ve been searching, but what kind of drop would you project for a Primary IV? 5-10%?

  6. The daily Bollinger Band-width is now at 1.6, lowest in over a year +. OEW count suggests a move up, but boy does it make me nervous… very nervous…

    From another blog “over the last 10 years, only twice has the S&P had a tighter BB width (as a % of price) than it does now – early September 2012 and April 10, 2006. In both instances, markets saw one final lunge higher in price, topped within 30 days, then dropped 5+% in a manner of weeks.”

    I haven’t fact checked this statement, but a violent move is about to commence. One way or another the market will let us know it’s real intentions soon.

  7. pooch77 says:

    2hour chart on INDU’s starting to put bottom in

  8. rc1269 says:

    hey TC – what do you think of AAPL here? possible the B wave retrace topped at 575? pretty close to 61.8% back. cheers.

  9. I hope at least this time, break out is upside. 10 days before, I hoped for breakout to 1860 but exactly reverse happened and SPX went to 1814 in single day..Upside breakout to 1858ish is crucial for fall to 1576. Ideally, breakout should happen on 27th…However, good news is if SPX does not break 1852 till 29th, then there are equal chances of fall to 1576..Hopefully GOOG shud help as all traders are targeting GOOG for SPX rise

  10. rc1269 says:

    looks like an 1850 close

  11. H D says:

    All the PB’s have been HWB. The gap up is gonna be huge! Exhaustion? That we don’t know yet. JMHO Good trades all.

  12. kisshu2 says:

    looks to me like we have a double zigzag within a downward sloping broadening pattern

    • Rumor has it USA and many other nations have already agreed behind closed doors with IMF guidance … that all currencies will be reevaluated based on debt, and the US Dollar will instantly lose 30% of its value and will lose its world reserve currency status. It is viewed by many that this adjustment needs to happen and it is the only way out of the mess the politicians and the Federal Reserve have created. So, if that’s the case gold & silver will be the best investments you could have ever dreamed of.

    • H D says:

      Gold was trading ~$1600 before Germany said show me my stuff, the FED might let it rally after they produce enough gold to pacify. IDK, just speculating.

  13. H D says:

    GM all, same ole, gap over 41 pivot found sellers. Looks nice zig zag. bumping HWB.

  14. respect to caldaro last post. Apple looks to surge into 5th wave .

  15. although I feel keeping a count in this market is a mute point. Dow seems in 4th wave triangle with further highs most likely coming. above 16100 just consoldiation. EURGBP in a solid march down.

  16. JK1987 says:

    “suggest Minute wave iii is now underway.”
    Trying to understand oew structure.

    Intermediate wave i from 1646 – 1814?
    Minor wave 1 from 1768 – 1749?
    Minute wave i from 1816 – 1851?
    And we are on iii of 3 of 3 up?
    What’s the oew target of iii of 3 of 3 up?

  17. rc1269 says:

    ES 1841 – 6th times the charm…?

  18. So far ignoring the counts which don’t matter and ignoring the news which does not matter even though the markets are flat stocks are flying. A stock and sector pickers market. Uranium looks like a play. Market is one directional like train going direct from ny to la maybe a few short stops but not worth getting a hotel. So worry less about counts and waves short term they mean little. 3 bill POMO today.

  19. 777daimon says:

    Browsing the net I observed some funny guys chatting about ‘1929 fractal’ with the present equivalent high before the cascade being on Jan 14 2014. :)))))))
    All I can say is : Ahaahahhaaaaa,ha,ah,aha,ahaaaaaa :))))))))))))
    A lot of people will buy a few thousands carts of shorts only to be killed after that.
    Do you know where the present part of this bull adventure will end (for a few months only) ? In the 1948-1970 area.
    After that a little trip to former higs of 2000 and 2007 and after that strongly above 2000 points – SPX 500.
    But who am I to dismiss such high possibility options like “1929 fractal” ? Ahahhaahahaaaaaa :)))))))))))))))))))

  20. lunker1 says:

    perhaps from 1851 is an ED with
    A 1840
    B 1849
    C 1832
    D 1844
    E 1829 (the .618 of W1)

  21. simpleiam says:

    Thanks for the Update, Tony. Hope you enjoyed the extra day off! LOL!

  22. Jennifer says:

    Thanks Tony,

    U.S. stocks closed mixed on corporate earnings:

  23. scorp100 says:

    Namaste Tony. You mentioned that bio pharma might be one of the good sectors to be in. Any particular names you like? Socks or ETFs?

  24. Quote from Today’s Comments: “With the short term positive divergence at today’s low, probabilities suggest Minute wave iii is now underway.”

    Did you mean Minor wave iii?

    Could 1849-1832 be the minute wave C of minor 2 as suggested by my Friday post?
    Could 1849-1832 alternatively be Minuette wave A of Minute wave C? If that were the case we would end up with a Minor 2 that was a double zig-zag.

    “Could 1832 Could the interesting development be that minor 2 is extending with the decline to 1816 being minute wave A, the upside action from that low being part of a minuette A-B-C comprising minute B, the vicinity of the Jan 17 low being near the minuette wave B low with the minuette C high yet to come (probably around 1848-51), followed by minute wave C of minor 2?”

    tony caldaro says:
    January 18, 2014 at 7:29 am
    A possibility considering the DOW has not made a new high

  25. bhupal777 says:

    Ready to pull the trigger at any time this week on emerging markets long trade. As per these charts….


  26. Hi Tony

    When I look at the ES/ since last Wednesday’s high, I see a (1835) – b (1843) – c (1830), with a=c.

    Then up to 1844.

    Then an impulsive dip to 1826 and a sharp pull back to 1838 (~71.8%).

    Could we be looking at an A-B-C structure, with A-B-1ofC completed, and perhaps 2ofC to 1838 ?

    I agree 100% that if we close above the recent all time high, then we go north.

    But what if we head to 1790 in the SPX ?

  27. bhupal777 says:

    Thanks Tony. I would have to agree that we are close to Minute wave 3 after seeing regional banks mega performance today. KBW index is up more than 2%. Look at some nice charts with great bases.


  28. Hi Tony

    You think gold miners made a final bottom just recently ?

    I know you say that shippers and miners looks interesting this year , are there any other sectors which you like if the markets has further upside potential?

    Again thank you for everything

  29. hucky2 says:

    As we all know if a market is going to pullback typically that happens quickly, so holding near record highs for almost a month suggests we are building a foundation for further gains. I have a high probability signal of a breakout higher tomorrow. GLTA

  30. thanks for the update tony. I couldn’t leave a reply either (neither from laptop nor from handheld), anyway, it works now so that’s good! It looks like wave-a down finished at 1836 on friday, wave b up this morning to 1847 (clear 3 waves) and then wave c down to 1833, where c=a. Perfect!! Likely micro waves of minute 2, now in minute 3. (Sorry I guess I am not adding anything new here…) Many individual stocks did nice intra-day reversal, which is bullish IMHO.

    Goldminers did well, not surprisingly. GSS up 27+% today. I took profits, 30%, now waiting for pullback for next entry. Hopefully gold can keep on going up. That be nice !

    • M1 says:

      Tore, expecting a small pullback in gold shortly ?

      • torehund says:

        M1: I am exposed to a miner Avocet, it hasn’t yet moved on the gold hike. But think GLD will go to at least 128 before a new inflection point occurs (the safe upside range). If China now turns thats very healthy. To change the bearish weekly cross and flatten the steeply declining 50 mda, takes a lot of force, skeptical but hopeful. If markets decide it could still be a bull market in gold then the recent bottom on the weekly macd was the end of an ABC from top, we have a D too on the macd and if we start getting an E, all hope is over for GLD. But if gold is in a bull still, we will have to see some fireworks soon, and gold still being in a bull would surprise many, (including myself,lol).
        Miners are so oversold for a prolonged time and relative to gold itself that this rally may have some legs, even a lower high from last bounce maybe double the share price on many junior miners..but they are risky bets.

  31. Ryan Parker says:

    Problems with the website. I was having problems with WordPress today as well.

  32. pooch77 says:

    What happened to leave reply tag today?Never moved off of 105 comments fron this morning.Tony just me or problems with website?

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