friday update

SHORT TERM: pullback continues, DOW +42

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 Housing starts were reported lower: 999k v 1091k , as were Building permits: 986k v 1007k. At 9:15 Industrial production was reported higher: +0.3% v +1.1%. The market opened four points below yesterday’s SPX 1846 close, bounced to 1845 in the opening minutes, then hit 1840 at 10am. At 10am Consumer sentiment was reported lower: 80.4 v 82.5. The market then started to work its way higher, but could only reach yesterday’s SPX 1846 high. Then it started to pullback again. In the last hour of trading the SPX dropped to 1835, then bounced to close at 1839.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.50%. Bonds gained 7 ticks, Crude added 20 cents, Gold rose $11, and the USD was higher. Last night the FED reported a dip in the M1-multiplier: 0.722 v 0.723. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 53.7% v 52.5%. Medium term support drops to the 1828 and 1779 pivots, with resistance at the 1841 and 1869 pivots.

The market opened lower on somewhat disappointing earnings. It then traded within yesterday’s SPX 1840-1846 range until late in the afternoon. Then the market dropped to SPX 1835 before bouncing into the close. The pullback from Wednesday’s all time high at SPX 1851 is now 16 points. A little on the high side of the typical 10-13 point pullbacks.
Will keep this in mind as we review the charts this weekend.

Short term support is at the 1828 pivot and SPX 1816, with resistance at the 1841 pivot and SPX 1851. Short term momentum hit neared quite oversold at the low. The short term OEW charts turned negative with the reversal level now SPX 1841. Best to your three-day weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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8 Responses to friday update

  1. Could the interesting development be that minor 2 is extending with the decline to 1816 being minute wave A, the upside action from that low being part of a minuette A-B-C comprising minute B, the vicinity of the Jan 17 low being near the minuette wave B low with the minuette C high yet to come (probably around 1848-51), followed by minute wave C of minor 2?

  2. M1 says:

    For those who like the Dow/Gold Ratio
    Still waiting Tony’s count =)

  3. M1 says:

    Thanks, Tony. Thanks for those two new charts. I just checked them.
    The waves certainly look that way to me. (Dow)
    If they are correct, 15703 should be taken in the next weeks, then 14200-14300 looks like a good support to stop any selloff in the short/medium term. (That’s abt 15% drop !…and the 38% Fib Retrac from 10404).
    How long do you think it could last ? two months ?
    Have a nice weekend.

  4. CB says:

    Good stuff, Tony. Thanks.

  5. mcmasoniam says:

    Thanks Tony! OEW Coffee (& Tea) Club should be interesting tomorrow morning. Appreciate your great charting. Have to break out the Calamine lotion for the kids again (ant bites). See you all tomorrow morning.

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