thursday update

SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW -65

Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened higher but closed -0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 326k v 330k, and the CPI was reported higher: +0.3% v 0.0%. The market opened three points below yesterday’s SPX 1848 close, dipped to 1842 in the opening minutes, then bounced to 1846 by 10am. At 10 am the Philly FED was reported higher: 9.4 v 7.0, but the NAHB was reported lower: 56 v 58. The market then pulled back to SPX 1840 by 11am. The first noticeable pullback since the rally began at SPX 1816. After that the market started to move higher. At 1:30 the SPX hit 1846, pulled back to 1843 just before the close, then closed at 1846.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ +0.05%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude slipped 5 cents, Gold added $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1884 pivots. Tomorrow: Housing starts and Building permits at 8:30, Industrial production at 9:15, Consumer sentiment at 10am, and it is Options expiration Friday.

The market opened lower today extending the pullback that started yesterday, after the new high: SPX 1851 @ 11am. The pullback reached SPX 1840, 11 points, which is normal for a Minute wave during this uptrend. As long as the OEW 1841 pivot range holds during this pullback the market remains on course. After Minute ii concludes, which might have been at today’s low, Minute iii should be underway.

Short term support remains at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance now at SPX 1851 and the 1869 pivots. Short term momentum dropped below neutral during today’s pullback, after hitting extremely overbought yesterday. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1841. Best your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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99 Responses to thursday update

  1. mcmasoniam says:

    Last week, I posted a note about air and water pollution in China, making the entire urban population very unhealthy, and visitors to the country quite ill. Looks like China won’t be keeping it to themselves if this continues…
    Bye. Have a great weekend, All!

  2. pooch77 says:

    1835 bottom,couldnt break 1831

  3. torehund says:

    Goldminers just adding to current strength, commodity producers poping, looks good all across..

    Happy weekend to all !

  4. H D says:

    nice call rc! They were too heavy calls this week.
    10 handles off HOD. Be well all

  5. mcmasoniam says:

    This looks like Friday before a 3-day Holiday and OPEX expiration profit-taking. Nothing more than that. IMO.

  6. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Going to test the WPP @183.48 (again)
    Good Weekend all.

  7. lunker1 says:

    FROM 1851
    A = 1840 = 11
    B = 1846
    C = .62A = 1839
    C = A = 1835
    C = 1.62A = 1828

    38% = 1837
    50% = 1833
    62% = 1829

  8. uncle10 says:

    The Vix is low, it’s time to go……

    Great weekend all.

  9. llerias7 says:

    Going nowhere!…

    a song to help in the last hour…

  10. bobhopium says:

    For my own trading purposes this structure still looks like pullback is not complete(1833/34)…GL to us all.
    SnP fut hourly

  11. tommyboys says:

    ECRI WLI Ticks Up – chart broke out if you go to the site and view…

    Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity showed a burst of momentum last week after weakening throughout December.
    According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 3.7% in the week ended Jan. 10, up from 2.5% in the prior week and the strongest rate since late September.
    The index itself increased to 134.5 from 133.4 in the previous week. ECRI says “occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average.”

    The December ECRI index growth rate slowed to 2.0% from 2.9% in November.

  12. hucky2 says:

    Who forgot to tip in the 3 billion POMO today – come on own up, what have you done with it?

  13. scottycj1 says:

    My Subscribers are going to make big money in the coming month. Big trade coming.
    New model has been right on and picking the turns accurately for the the last few months.

    • oneandonlyuniverse says:

      Can you tell me how much I will make so I will know if it is worth the price of admission?
      Exactly , what is the definition of “big money”. Is Soros,Dalio,and Druckenmiller aware of the “new model”. Please tell us what is going to happen in the next month so we can put orders in now. Consider it a President’s day gift for all the potential subs.

  14. the bears have a slew of negatives and work with and yet still cant get anything done.

  15. pooch77 says:

    As you can see the daily stoch on rut is pointed up so I would imagine more up into early-mid next week.Late next week we enter into eom buying so a 2-5% pullback would probably wait until 1st week of Feb.UPS and Intel earnings could not pull market down

  16. 777daimon says:

    wave ‘c’ of minute 2 should end somewhere at 1836.
    but it doesn’t go down so much!
    usually ‘c’ is truncated before a “3” up.
    so 1840’s works ok.
    Monday is closed. On Tuesday there will be a gap. 😉 .a gap and go! 😉

  17. tommyboys says:

    Bull not over – Jeremy Siegel
    Just thought I’d post a successful seasoned opinion that I happen to agree with…don’t shoot me! Of course possible correction along the way (is due).–says-jeremy-siegel-213626443.html

    • mcmasoniam says:

      tboys, I don’t care for Siegel too much, but looks like bearish sentiment is increasing, which in my estimation is a good thing for the current Bulls. Gotta go. Have a great day, All!

    • ewtoriginal says:

      Yes.He is a brilliant man. Except his conclusions have no basis in fact and rely on Fed liquidity(POMO),like all other factual arguments. Its fine to believe and stay long to the gills if you recognize the how and why..and when it ends.

    • mcmasoniam says:

      Sorry tboys… Thanks for posting the link. For the record, I am bullish. I get interrupted by the phone or kids and I don’t complete notes as I’d like. Have a great day!

    • ewtoriginal says:

      Tommyboys, Siegel also expected 2008 to be a good year, unconcerned about the sell-off in late 2007.In fact, he expected financials (!!) to be the best performers.As I previously stated, that is my alma mater and dont let the professor thing fool you:
      “Prospects for stocks. Shares should have a good year, returning 8% to 10%. Stocks will rise as economic growth picks up in the year’s second half and head winds from the credit crisis ease. Earnings will take a hit in the first quarter of 2008, but profits will begin to recover by the second quarter. Stocks are reasonably valued, even when priced against poor earnings. Once earnings increase, stock returns will be considerably better.
      Financial stocks, by far the worst-performing sector in 2007, could well be the best in 2008. ”
      Sound familiar? It should because he says the same thing every year irrespective of price or causation.
      My reasoning for a top has everything to do with the market starting to discount the end of QE. Apparently it wants to start the “discounting” from a higher level.

  18. mjtplayer says:

    AXP holding-up thw DOW, up $4.50 – throw in V with another $1.50 and the 2 are accounting for +40 DOW points.

  19. rc1269 says:

    1841 defense team just woke up

  20. pooch77 says:

    Red flag trannies? UPS

  21. bobhopium says:

    Don’t like the look of any of it today imho…staying with small short on Dow for now…GL to us all.

  22. lunker1 says:

    Blackjack, it’s the nature of forks that if within a fork a line provides support that then on the upside a similar distanced line might provide resistance. There is a balance to the distance of the movements.

    • lunker1 says:

      Ultimately the goal of price is to go from the bottom of a fork to the top. But I am not going to bank on that so since price moved up above the the white line then the green line might be next. Besides the purple forks all the other lines are parallel mirrors of each other from the lower half of the fork to the upper half of the fork. The arrows show how often price is respecting those lines so they seem to be valid.

  23. oneandonlyuniverse says:

    Hey Tony,

    Citi pos on miners….first pos call in a long time in this group


  24. berniebaruch says:

    Push em up when 97 percent of traders are sleeping…..Best way to get a OPEX rally.

  25. blackjak100 says:

    I still like 1865ish, but you can count 5 waves on an int and minor scale from 1074 meaning a cycle wave B top. It appears so far a minute 3rd wave is not starting today.

    • mharrison60 says:

      Blackjack if this is cycle wave B do you see count to top the same as Tony does for PIII?

      As you know Tony has suggested a circa 10% drop for PIV. If instead we see the first leg down of cycle C what kind of drop are you expecting?

      Much appreciated!

  26. elmer510 says:

    European stockmarkets are going very well, new ATH at the important German DAX index which is approaching 10 000. Also ATH in Norway.

    Futures in US also tell us “Happy days are here again”, up 0,3% so far.
    Minute 3 of minor 3 of IM3 is underway to new highs. All good things are 3 they used to say.

  27. market update for thursday and strategy for friday ( within remarks sect.) see new penny stock section

  28. lunker1 says:


    • mcmasoniam says:

      Yo lunker, I can live with that! Love that forking chart!

    • blackjak100 says:

      Lunk just curious, the uptrend is yet to tag the green line. Why now? Blow off top or do you see us in some type of int 3rd wave as 3rd waves usually break above a given channel?

    • uncle10 says:

      Nice fork chart Lunker. Your white line has been a great sell. The last time it went over just a touch and came back. Now it is right on it again, which if it continues to work as it has in the past—this is a time to sell/ short not to be long. Maybe it over throws a little like last time? Thanks.

  29. mcmasoniam says:

    Thank you, Tony. I’m prepped to take some downside, as I also see about 1900 on upside, at the least, during w5. If nothing else, sentiment wise, many are turning bearish and that’s a good sign for continuation after consolidation. Great work / charts!

  30. bobhopium says:

    Thanks Tony…Here’s a bit of fun….but surprisingly accurate…
    You know it’s a market top when Hollywood makes another movie about Wall Street

  31. bouraq says:

    RUT pushing the limits:

    • torehund says:

      pos div on rsi, give me some sugar….smells like a bottom, go DAG etf.

    • pooch77 says:

      nice charts

    • mcmasoniam says:

      Thanks bouraq. True about RUT; was phenomenal today! Likely to have a bit of a pullback soon, and I’ll have to decide whether to jump or not. Not a daytrader, so can handle some downside if I think more upside coming (which there is). Lovely charts, thanks!

      tore, go get ’em!


      • torehund says:

        Thanks M-bought some TAU today and hopefully the earnings of 27 cents repeats, and times 4 thats a dollar per year, and at pps of 3 usd, thats a heck of a PE. They have used last year to extinguish debt and the SA article about swindle, well it gave a good buying opportunity.
        Concerning bulk: Free is between the 50 and 100 mda, upside is 6 usd downside is retest of bottom at 1,2 or so…However when I can catch the box -ship then its currently a safer bet, and might be of bagger material still.

  32. M1 says:

    The last 90 minutes of today suggest the market wants to go much higher yet. However, the NAZ should reverse before it hits 4289 (Wave B highs in 2000).

  33. blackjak100 says:

    Ty tony! Boring day!

    Long spy for 1-2 day trade for minute 3 and short gold for 1-2 day trade. Still long AAPL for target of $585ish.

    OPEX could be interesting as it’s possible minute 2 is not complete and we have one more red candle tomorrow.

  34. Well, looks like American Express had earnings of 1.21 Vs 1.25 expectations. Miss Intc .51 vs .52 Miss Capitol one 1.45 Vs 1.54. Miss Forget all the retail companies such as best buy etc. companies cant even meet reasonable projections. forward guidance is growth of 7 to 10 percent. In order to have a 17 forward PE ratio. Never going to happen. Truly a house of cards. I have no idea what count we are in, But this bull can die at any time as far as im concerned.

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