SHORT TERM: gap up opening sold again, DOW -18
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.8%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.7%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 330k v 339k. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1842, ticked up to 1843, and then started to pullback. The SPX had closed at 1837 yesterday. Around 10:30 the SPX had closed the upside gap, and by 11am hit 1830. A rally to SPX 1838 followed by 1pm, then the market pulled back to 1832 by 2pm. Another rally into the close pushed the SPX to 1839 before dipping to 1838 to end the day.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.30%. Bonds gained 7 ticks, Crude added 5 cents, Gold rose $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1828 and 1779 pivots, with resistance at the 1841 and 1869 pivots. Tomorrow: the monthly Payrolls report at 8:30 (est. 185k to 197k), and Wholesale inventories at 10am.
The market gapped up at the open today for the third day this week, with the net gain so far for the week seven points. Since it takes an opening of at least five points higher than the previous close for a gap up, the week has obviously been quite choppy. The market opened over the 1841 pivot, then quickly retreated and remained under it for the rest of the day. From December’s SPX 1849 high we have had three waves down: 1828-1838-1824, and now three waves up: 1840-1831-1843. Today’s drop to SPX 1830 and rally to 1839, could be the start of the next set of three waves down to end Minor wave 2. Or, part of a more complex Minute wave b. Above SPX 1843 adds to complexity, and below SPX 1830 suggests Minute c underway.
Short term support is at the 1828 pivot and SPX 1814, with resistance at the 1841 pivot and 1849. Short term momentum dropped to around neutral where it remained most of the day. The short term OEW charts are still positive with the reversal level SPX 1836. Best to your Payrolls day trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market