thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening sold again, DOW -18

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.8%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.7%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 330k v 339k. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1842, ticked up to 1843, and then started to pullback. The SPX had closed at 1837 yesterday. Around 10:30 the SPX had closed the upside gap, and by 11am hit 1830. A rally to SPX 1838 followed by 1pm, then the market pulled back to 1832 by 2pm. Another rally into the close pushed the SPX to 1839 before dipping to 1838 to end the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.30%. Bonds gained 7 ticks, Crude added 5 cents, Gold rose $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1828 and 1779 pivots, with resistance at the 1841 and 1869 pivots. Tomorrow: the monthly Payrolls report at 8:30 (est. 185k to 197k), and Wholesale inventories at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open today for the third day this week, with the net gain so far for the week seven points. Since it takes an opening of at least five points higher than the previous close for a gap up, the week has obviously been quite choppy. The market opened over the 1841 pivot, then quickly retreated and remained under it for the rest of the day. From December’s SPX 1849 high we have had three waves down: 1828-1838-1824, and now three waves up: 1840-1831-1843. Today’s drop to SPX 1830 and rally to 1839, could be the start of the next set of three waves down to end Minor wave 2. Or, part of a more complex Minute wave b. Above SPX 1843 adds to complexity, and below SPX 1830 suggests Minute c underway.

Short term support is at the 1828 pivot and SPX 1814, with resistance at the 1841 pivot and 1849. Short term momentum dropped to around neutral where it remained most of the day. The short term OEW charts are still positive with the reversal level SPX 1836. Best to your Payrolls day trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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169 Responses to thursday update

  1. rc1269 says:

    1840-41 – 5th time’s the charm.

  2. Monday pre market we will gap down into a C, targeting 1820-1800. Too many ready to jump ship during normal hours, rug has to be pulled in futures or pre market.

  3. ewtoriginal says:

    Glad I shut down and didnt enter any foolish orders when I was getting frothy bearish. I cant see anything wrong with this picture:
    Large cap NDX like AAPL, AMZN and spec like NFLX,TSLA getting hit. Russell rolling merrily along. Nothing wrong at all…hahaha. Sure.
    Dont worry, all those new entrants will definitely make good returns and all will be the last one out intact. No problem.

  4. bobhopium says:

    Fwiw, if anyone is interested I’m adding to shorts here (Dow)…I would do a chart, but I can’t be a$$ed as it’s friday…Gl to us all.

    • bob you have been so right on this market. why short this market when there is no fear in this market. no matter what it just goes up.

      • Bob knows in either bull or bear doesn’t matter most likely we going down to 1820 before more upside or before monster correction,

      • bobhopium says:

        thetruthtrader…Thnx, but I just try to trade what I see and I am seeing some downside risk at mo, and as Tommy says below its about hedging also. GL.

    • bobhopium says:

      Snp fut 5min.

      • mmmiiikkkeee says:

        Bob, What chart is this?
        You say Snp fut but your chart trades in .01 increments, Snp fut trade in .05 increments plus prices on your chart are higher.

      • bobhopium says:

        @ mimmiiikkkeee…Yes its actually a synthetic that follows Snp fut. The UK company that I place my trades with is set up as a bookmaker (IG Index) and the above chart is generated by them.
        I use them because my trades are classed as bets and under UK law there is no taxation on winnings from gambling and when I hold overnight my stops are absolutely guaranteed with no morning gap worries. They are also great for money management as i can bet 23, 39 or 57 whatever, dollars /point. GL.

    • tommyboys says:

      Always prudent to hedge nothing guaranteed in the markets. Looks less like a gap down Monday however.

      • jparkins10 says:

        2 big gap up opens in 2013, but generally a bias towards a small down open.
        OPEX Monday has had 7 straight up closes, FWIW

      • To me, it looks like they are keeping her down from making a big run… Monday could be a different story, but sure looks like a rally next week….. the only problem I see with the rally theory is the fact that Jan options have been trading all year, last year… so some might want to keep it down next week as well.

    • gary61b says:

      yes, maybe a reload of the dow to the short side at 16455. probably be next week. TY Tony, till the weekend update.

  5. lunker1 says:

    PNRA good short at $182-$186?
    1. missing or barely making numbers the past year
    2. analyst Q and FY earnings being revised down
    3. just filled gap w a possible LD C wave and sold off sharply.
    4. watching to see what the LD E wave does….

  6. oneandonlyuniverse says:

    Super piece you put together on Gold last Friday. Real nice piece.
    Thank you

  7. lunker1 says:

    for Umark and Mikeeeeeeee
    SBUX PE=29 not 7839

    SPX is market cap weighted. The Top 10 holdings are 18% of the index. Here are the PE’s.

    AAPL 12
    XOM 13
    GOOG 26
    MSFT 13
    GE 17
    JNJ 17
    CVX 11
    PG 19
    JPM 13
    WFC 12

    that guy’s math and opinion about SPX being ridiculously overvalued are both flawed.

    this chart says PE is 19.48
    it seems there’s room to run to the 22-26 range before a significant top is made.

    • rc1269 says:

      not disagreeing with you that we can still go higher, but didn’t the SPX p/e top around 18’ish during the last peak? or am I misremembering

    • mmmiiikkkeee says:

      All I wrote was that has SBUX PE at (now) 7755 so it’s not just “that guy”.
      They have AAPL PE at 13 and GE PE at 19 so not all their PE’s are extreme. Thus, I conclude there must be some basis for the 4 digit PE for SBUX.
      I am not much interested in fundamental info but now I am a little curious where the earnings for SBUX of 1 cent comes from. (bigcharts PE is exactly 100 times price)
      In any case, TY for the reply

      • rc1269 says:

        probably the difference in GAAP EPS vs. the Adjusted EPS that the whole world uses nowadays. there’s no such thing as using actual earnings anymore, since nobody makes an economic profit it wouldn’t look too good. but, if you do as AA does for instance, you can back out any writedowns (of assets you paid real cash for in the past) then you never really have to worry about economic losses. oh, and your p/e is always lower.
        because, ya know, when you buy a stock you really want to buy adjustment management, adjusted assets, adjusted earnings and adjusted reality. real reality ain’t that great

    • ewtoriginal says:

      Lunker, those are all forward ,not trailing, earnings mutiples using a simple Yahoo scan. The numbers also assume about a 10% eps rise. Good luck with that with no revenue growth and no fat left to cut. Hussmans/ Schillers figures use the 10 year average for a reason, and on that basis stocks are once again at blow out historical over valuation. But of course if you use the Fed methodology and debase the dollar by 10% all is cheap and good. Thats why we “need” inflation and must use nominal figures instead of real.Gotta keep the illusion alive.

  8. torehund says:

    Soon time too look at the basket of softs X 2, DAG etf. Its a double dog right now but not for very long, maybe it bottoms out together with China.

    • mcmasoniam says:

      tore, I don’t know if you saw my note to you about this earlier this week, but please let me know if and when you think trigger should be pulled. I was watching it too; considering wheat and other crop damage. Not so much corn, but others. Have a good one!

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