weekend update


Interesting split-week to start 2014. The market started the week ending 2013 and closing within one point of all time new highs. Then it began 2014 with a gap down opening and finished the week negative. The last time the market had a down opening and a down week to start the year was 2008. All years, 2009 through 2013, had up openings and up weeks. This could be the signal for a bull market top this year. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.3%, the NDX/NAZ were -0.8%, and the DJ World index was -0.50%. On the economic front it was a quiet week, which came in split. On the uptick: Case-Shiller, pending home sales, construction spending and the M1-multiplier. On the downtick: ISM manufacturing, auto sales, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims ticked up. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by ISM services, the FOMC minutes and the Payrolls report.

LONG TERM: bull market

We continue to count this bull market as Cycle wave [1] of a new multi-decade Super cycle 3 bull market. The previous Cycle [1] of SC 1 lasted five years: 1932-1937. The current one just entered its fifth year: 2009-2014. At the beginning of this bull market we thought getting back to the SPX 1576 all time high, from SPX 667, would be an accomplishment in itself. The FED, however, has surprised everyone with its massive liquidity programs. Which has raised its balance sheet from just over $800bn to recently $3.7tn.

FED's balance sheet

Despite all this liquidity the waves continue to unfold in a recognizable OEW pattern. We have been expecting a five Primary wave bull market. Primary waves I and II completed in 2011, and Primary wave III has been underway since then. Primary I divided into five Major waves, with a subdividing Major wave 1. Primary III, however, has also divided into five Major waves, but both Major waves 1 and 3 subdivided. Plus we are now in an extended Major wave 5.


Currently Primary III is already about 10% longer than Primary I: 774 pts. v 704 pts. So theoretically Primary III can now end at any time. However, usually there is some sort of Fibonacci relationship between waves and the internal waves, plus a proper completed wave structure. Ten percent is not a Fibonacci relationship, nor have we a completed wave structure. As a result, the worse case scenario for a Primary III high would be around SPX 1869 and best case around SPX 1970. With the Major wave 5 trend still rising the market should make higher highs soon.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

We have been counting this Major wave 5 uptrend from the August low in the SPX, and October low in the DOW. At the late November high in both indices we observed a five Minor wave pattern from their respective lows, and have labeled it Intermediate wave one of Major wave 5. The pullback that followed into mid-December was about 23.6% of that advance, and then the market spiked higher.


This Thursday we marked the recent all time high at SPX 1849 as Minor wave 1 of Intermediate three. Minor wave 2 should be underway now. As long as the market stays above SPX 1768 this count remains valid. Typically waves of this degree get, or approach, oversold on the daily RSI. And, the daily MACD crosses below its moving average. Which it has yet to do. After Minor wave 2 concludes we would expect a Minor wave 3 rally to at least equal Minor 1 (81 pts.). Medium term support is a the 1828 and 1779 pivots, with resistance at the 1841 and 1869 pivots.


Short term support is at the 1828 pivot and SPX 1814, with resistance at the 1841 pivot and SPX 1849. Short term momentum ended the week around neutral. The short term OEW charts are negative with the reversal level now SPX 1835.

With the recent Minor wave 1 topping at SPX 1849 it travelled 81 points. This makes looking for pullback levels relatively simple. A 23.6% retracement occurs at SPX 1830, a 38.2% at SPX 1818, a 50% at SPX 1808, and a 61.8% at SPX 1799. The 1828 pivot just about covers the first two, SPX 1814 the next one, and SPX 1800 the last one. These are the three levels we will be observing during this pullback.


Also of note, previous pullbacks of this degree, during this uptrend, have hit extremely oversold readings on the hourly RSI (10). And they have taken anywhere from one to three weeks to unfold. Since this rally took two weeks to unfold, we would not expect this pullback to last more than two weeks. So we are probably looking at support for Minor 2 between SPX 1800 and 1814 in the next week or two. The market could continue to bounce around, as it has in the first two days, until then. Best to your trading!


Asian markets were mixed on the week for a net loss of 0.6%.

European markets were also mixed and ended overall unchanged.

The Commodity equity group were all lower losing 0.4%.

The DJ World index remains in an uptrend, but lost 0.5%.


Bonds continue their downtrend but gained 0.1%.

Crude sold off 5.9% this week as it looks like it is back in a downtrend.

Gold is trying to confirm an uptrend gaining 1.9% on the week.

The USD is uptrending gaining 0.7% on the week.


Monday: Factory orders and ISM services at 10am. Tuesday: the Trade deficit. Wednesday: the ADP index, FOMC minutes and Consumer credit. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims. Friday: the Payrolls report, Unemployment rate and Wholesale inventories. The FED has nothing else scheduled at this time. Wishing you all, and yours, a healthy and prosperous New Year!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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158 Responses to weekend update

  1. $SPX $SPY $UVXY $NUGT $TSLA $FB $TNA, market update and plan for tuesday (within remark’s sect.)

  2. bobhopium says:

    Hi all…Fwiw…I am seeing a bearish setup here…looking for ES-1800/02…tight leash.
    GL to all.

  3. uncle10 says:

    Happy New Year! It’s going to be exciting! :>)/
    My hope is We try to help each other do better.

    • tommyboys says:

      Hard to accomplish when you get torn to shreds posting anything contra majority belief. But that’s OK being in the minority has severed a few of us well – and as always will continue doing so… love to see a few 2013 results.

      • tommy you have been one of he best on this blog. You have nailed it perfect and have not let anything or anyone get in your way. Kudos. staying bullish has worked for you and not buying any of wave iv correction talk hinder your mind. great work

      • uncle10 says:

        TB, I don’t read everything but I don’t recall a time you wore torn to shreds? Maybe people disagree and state why, but

      • uncle10 says:

        TB and all others that are in for the long haul, ei riding out all corrections etc. bullish no matter what, you can’t time the market, after tax it just pays to just stay long. etc…
        Why come to a web site such as this one? Thx.

      • bobhopium says:

        Tommy +5…Yes I have no problem being in the minority either, but I have tried to share most of my successful trade setups with all here. However i really don’t think anyone reads them as they have gone against the majority view. There is a strange psychology that makes people more comfortable being wrong with the crowd than right with the few.
        GL to us all.

      • mcmasoniam says:

        bob, I keep trying to get others to realize this, but I don’t seem to be able to do so. When the Bulls are in control of markets, the Bears don’t really blog, except for a couple of hard-cores and Erka. Conversely, when the Bears are in control of markets, the Bulls don’t really blog, except for a couple of hard-cores, and Erka. I find this to be true on most blogs, therefore, don’t use blog sites as sentiment, unless it’s a huge swing in sentiment within a couple hours, and lots of bloggers are real verbal, and Erka. JMO.

      • torehund says:

        Tommy, Bob and and the contrarians; your efforts are highly appreciated. Its alway the tough job to front something nobody else believes will happen, and you are seldom given credit if you are right, rather the contrary. Thats life, thats sociology at works.
        Just like the new ice age hypothesis that I think is pretty obvious(on the abc up and flatlining count from 1900 onwards), but anyone advocating it will end up in stocks, the real stocks…
        When we sail the smooth sea towards 1970, (or there around) its no time to make problems out of thin air. Enjoy the ride, scoop in on your favorite stocks and post music, there will be tougher times later on, and its sensible to save the power of thought until the day its really needed.

  4. RDC great call on the VIX. market was down 50 points when you pointed that out

    • rc1269 says:

      hmm okay so let me get this straight… 44% of investors, according to his data, expect another solid up year. the biggest single contingent.
      yet somehow if the mkt does exactly what the biggest segment of investors expect, then that will… really confound the most people? that seems mathematically impossible.
      looking at his own chart it seems to me the outcome that will confound the most is if the market is flat

      • tony caldaro says:

        According to the data we just received.
        The public has recently made its highest commitment to stocks since 2007.
        Why shouldn’t they be bullish 😉

      • tommyboys says:

        Keep shorting…

      • rc1269 says:

        dang, you got me man. i’m sooo short. and i’m a communist too, because i have a copy of Mao’s little red book. and… and… i love the ocean, because i read this site about waves and stuff.
        it’s amazing how you can know almost everything about somebody without actually knowing… well, anything.

    • tommyboys says:

      My bet is a sizeable correction late winter/early spring then on to new highs. Net net another 20-25% up in 2014…ya heard it here first – time will tell.

      • mcmasoniam says:

        TB, I wouldn’t presume to bet on another 20%+ year; it could do it, but highly unusual. Who’s to say what’s usual anymore. Personally, the more and longer the Bull is in this market, the better! Those w/Employer Match 401k’s and some other Savings Acct. instruments can’t short the market, and gains are desperately needed. Just talked to an Iraq Veteran who got caught in 2008, of course, panicked and sold. Divorced w/3 kids all under age 18. I feel so bad for him, but at least he wants to learn. Not so much what people here are doing, but how to tell if “it’s the real deal and get out (or in) quick”! Stocks will eventually go down again and if you’ve squirreled away some cash buy then, you’ll likely see up to a 10 fold return about 10 years afterward!

        Hang in there, TB. You’ve done very well this past year. Hope you do as well or better this coming year, and All others too!


      • rc1269 says:

        “…ya heard it here first ”

        actually, i’ve heard that from twelve of the twelve suspender-snapping market strategists i’ve had calls with the last two months. so ‘first’ might be a stretch. but i’ll definitely give you credit for it, you can be certain of that

    • ewtoriginal says:

      Thank you for posting that Santoli piece. Now I understand how he and many naturally misinterpret sentiment figures. For example, most people in the survey expecting a decline have no fear of that decline becoming a protracted fall,but merely one which may, at worst, fall 20% upon which they then expect a rebound.No, that question and the implication is not found in the survey.Its reading between the lines that tells me what the true expectations are..and the actual lack of fear even if those surveyed expect a “large” drop of 20%. For me, the ultimate question will be answered as the liquidity created finds a final home with permanently higher NOMINAL equity prices, or the balance sheet of central banks proves to be an insurmountable problem and truly dangerous sociological actions ensue globally. History dictates that this is the most logical expectation.Not the one we want, but the one we permitted.

  5. careful – if one is short- IMHO + div is developing on the hourly (and as soon as I noticed it Tony has it already marked on his chart ! 🙂 )

  6. lunker1 says:

    another C=.618A?
    A = 1827.74 = 21.7
    B = 1837.20
    C = .618A = 1823.79
    LOW TODAY 1823.73

  7. liborval says:

    HI Tony, is something wrong with this count? he has 5 waves for major 5. http://stockcharts.com/public/1696337

  8. RDC says:

    I think markets are ready for bounce?

  9. H D says:

    Nice,,, 10 AM bounce, they sold em and we r off 10 handles…. BOTS! :mrgreen: It’s almost familiar

    • H D says:

      yup, they sold 33-23 rally since, Watch 27 ES IMHO

      Kapernack can run like a Gazelle & I had to show ID to buy glue yesterday. What on earth is the world coming to?
      Pontificate. (stay fancy M- I got a post signature now too!)

      • H D says:

        yup all $3.89 worth of it was locked up behind bars and I had to sign for it.

        Tony, SPX not starting the year out at all like last year? Your thoughts?

        • tony caldaro says:

          You weren’t carrying a handkerchief in your short pocket were you?
          It began 2014 with a gap down opening and finished the week negative. The last time the market had a down opening and a down week to start the year was 2008. All years, 2009 through 2013, had up openings and up weeks. This could be the signal for a bull market top this year.

      • H D says:

        hankercief, no, Just a brown paper bag? Is that a sign? :mrgreen:

        Thx Tony. In my hurry today skipped the review portion…

      • mcmasoniam says:

        HAHAHAHA! That’s great! Gotta love it! Legalize the dubbish and ID for glue.

  10. rc1269 says:

    monring TC and happy monday!

    so just to clarify – below 1768 is where you’d change the count to P III being over, is that right?

    gracias amigo. -rc

  11. I would be very concerned with hoping for any sort of decline. Options and VIX telling you nobody concerned and every dip will be bought. Barring an unforseen event which probably would not even last long the bears seem to have no case

    • we are up 450 points on s&p in 2013 and you say ” I would be very concerned with hoping for any sort of decline.” WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      • imanewbietrader for my own selfish reason I would love to see this market take a 20% hit. But there is no fear. VIX flat VIX futures down today and if you look at the options nobody seems to be worried. A day like today the futures would be up huge but they cannot even turn green. To me it means BTFD. Again if the S&P dropped 450 points in a week I would be thrilled but I gave up on trying to make sense of this market and going against the fed. thats why I will be taking wave counts a lot less serious this year. You have to give Caldaro kudos for even keeping a count anymore in the US markets I dont even know how he does it.

      • mcmasoniam says:

        VIX futures normally don’t turn down in a sizeable way until AFTER stocks start moving significantly and/or quickly lower.

        There will be a pullback someday soon, just probably not today. GL!


      • thank you mcmasoniam. point noted.

    • 16golfer says:

      Mr Top Step says $VIX will move up before Stocks start significant decline. Mason already echoed that.

      • tommyboys says:

        NO FEAR is something to fear in the markets – not the other way around…although more fear crept into sentiment last week rather quickly so its there.

  12. blackjak100 says:

    Thinking AAPL just completed wave 4 of primary C as a regular flat at $533ish. I did go long at $535 for final fifth wave.

  13. alexhartley1 says:

    Hi Tony – what level do you believe the USD Index has to break upwards through to make you think the recent correction is over and that were not in a c wave down but actually at the start of a new major/intermediate wave up?

    Currently how possible do you think that is?

    Thanks and Best Alex

  14. H D says:

    HNY! Tony and all. easing back into things… looking for our bots/ pattern

  15. $TNA $UVXY $SPXL $TWTR $SPX $SPY, the “LET IT ROLL” roadmap for the coming week: http://standardpoor.wordpress.com

    love ya, beautiful new year to all!

  16. 777daimon says:

    Hi Tony,

    Is there any scenario under which we might consider that Primary IV on SPX 500 has started or it 100% impossible ?


  17. Namaste Tony sir,

    Target for SRX(1965 by Q3-Q4 2014) shown in weekly chart is for Prim III or Prim V target ?

  18. ewmarkets says:

    I have a question about futures prices. This question has been bothering me for a long time so I hope someone can and would answer it. On the crude futures price tonight for example, on the daily chart, the closing price on the previous trading day (Jan. 3, 2014) was 94.31 according to TDAmeritrade. At this moment, it is 94.18. So, looks to me it is down by 13 cents. However, TDAmeritrade daily chart lists it as UP by 0.22. Why is that? 94.18 is less than 94.31, so it traded down from Friday’s close. Why is it shown as UP? This happens to gold and silver futures prices as well. Would someone tell me why the price change listed does not equal current price minus previous day close on the daily chart?

    Thank you very much!

  19. Recent quotes from the Sentiment Trader:\

    Jan 2, 2014: “Traders that are the most consistently useful as contrary indicators have pushed their optimism to an extreme rarely seen in 27 years.”
    Dec. 30, 2013: “Mutual fund traders in the Rydex family of funds have gone parabolic in their expectations of continually rising index prices.”

    Does anyone here have familiarity with the methods and success rate of the above service?

  20. Hi,Tony,please,the count in square is certanly not valid for Dow?thanks


    • tony caldaro says:

      Wave 2 can drop below the beginning of wave 1.

      • gary61b says:

        Elliott wave rules and guidelines

        A correct Elliott wave “count” must observe three rules:
        Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1.
        Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the three impulse waves, namely waves 1, 3 and 5.
        Wave 4 does not overlap with the price territory of wave 1, except in the rare case of a diagonal triangle.
        A common guideline observes that in a five-wave pattern, waves 2 and 4 will often take alternate forms; a sharp move in wave 2, for example, will suggest a mild move in wave 4. Corrective wave patterns unfold in forms known as zigzags, flats, or triangles. In turn these corrective patterns can come together to form more complex corrections.[3]Similarly, a triangular corrective pattern is formed usually in wave 4 (very rarely in wave 2) and is the indication of end of correction.

  21. hucky2 says:

    If we were to focus on the Nasdaq for now, it’s all about gaps – one above & one below. A forceful move above the 4160/4165 gap or below the 4130/4110 will determine trend in the short term. My guess is we are stuck in the froth in between for now, possibly until the $4.00 – $5.00 billion Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases on Jan 15th. GLA

    • blackjak100 says:

      Great chart Jedi! I may be wrong but sure likes we need a fifth wave of primary C to complete retrace which could begin as early as tomorrow from the $530’s. Looking for $580-$600 barring a truncation. Could earnings in jan kick off the C wave or wave 3????

    • Good chart Jedi. From EW counts point of view, case can be made that it has completed correction to upside and just started down trend. In fact we may be in 3 of 3 (minor). But from traditional technical analysis ((Edwards and Magee) point of view it is still showing bullish tone. (Like above 200 DMA, nice basing pattern, continuing its uptrend after orderly pullbacks etc.)
      Yes in next 2 weeks we will know more. I see that almost all EW analysts are looking for larger wave C down, Personally there is no rush to short this yet. Last time downtrend lasted for almost 7 months. So I will have plenty of opportunities to short this if larger Wave C materializes. There is a possibility PRI IV in SPX may coincide with Apple’s larger C down. But if 560-570 range takes out then I will be in bullish camp, which is a possibility if January earnings call shows very strong sales. GL all.

    • Thanks, Blackjack and Peter. I agree with you both — earnings is certainly a catalyst for change.

  22. hrmny358 says:

    First post, just an observation regarding FOMC meetings since 2012. S&P rallies avg of 13 days after the meeting and rallies an avg of 30 points. Selloffs avg 70 points – 92 worst case, most were 80-82 and the mean is 70. 13 days since the Dec 18 FOMC was 12/31/13. 30 points was 1841. I am traveling so I don’t have the data in front of me. These are averages from the 9 meetings since the Dec 2012 FOMC, the advent of QE3. It kept me cautious at year end.

  23. blackjak100 says:

    Evening McM-

    I would say within the next 2 weeks. I will get very bullish with trade above 1892. The problem with the B wave scenario is it requires a lower low below 667. It’s hard to imagine what causes this to happen even as bad as the fundamentals are. Debt or hyperinflation maybe?

    • mcmasoniam says:

      “The problem with the B wave scenario is it requires a lower low below 667.”

      Mornin’ BJ. Well, guess this is out. Could still happen, but understandably, not holding my breath.


      • blackjak100 says:

        That’s just by definition of an expanded flat. The C wave that follows has to end beyond A wave. I wouldn’t hold my breath either. However, I still think the move from 2009 looks best as an ABC or WXY. A move to S&P 550 would only imply a return to the crisis with an 8 P/E instead of 11 on 2009. Not as far fetched when looking at it that way. Secular bear markets have ended with an 8 P/E before. Still not holding my breath

      • mcmasoniam says:

        Hi bj, hope you’re staying warm. If indeed an ABC, then, is quite long term and as old as I am, sure wouldn’t try to prep for it now. Personally, I do expect another, or a continuation of the current Crisis, and an extension of the Sec. Bear until as late as 2020. Might not go that late, but wouldn’t surprise me if it did.

        Right now, I’m trying to decide on a good agri ETF that will reflect the delay of crops coming to market this Spring, due to the cold weather we’re experiencing now. California and Florida have been spared thus far, so will have to be something very Midwest centered, and we have plenty of corn; no shortage of ethanol… Thinking about it.


  24. whitedisk says:

    I continue to be amazed how Tony constantly re-writes his history of using OEW to characterize and predict the market. It is “quanitifed” and always describes the market pattern, yet we constantly “monitor and adjust.” The pattern changes at all degress over time, many times. This quantification claim is quite illogical.

    Again this week Tony writes that:
    “Despite all this liquidity the waves continue to unfold in a recognizable OEW pattern. We had, all along, been expecting a five Primary wave bull market.”

    Really?? – You had been expecting a five wave bull market all along??

    Then what did the post of September 24, 2011 calling the pattern an ABC bear market mean? That’s 2.5 years – half – of this bull market incorrectly characterized as a bear market! And there were many doubts
    after that point and before the market call was finally changed to a bull market when the quantitative, precise wave pattern OEW method sat paralyzed on the fence – “inflection points.”

    I’ve read this blog nearly daily for more than 4 years and am finally giving it up as it is illogical and nothing but conjecture. Anyone who uses this as a basis for trading the market over the long term would be going different directions at the least. And no one can claim that it is reliable on shorter terms as it clearly changes all the time – and readers don’t often agree on these detailed counts. I fortunately don’t use anything from this as a basis for trading and have no expectations for bull or bear patterns.

    The next time you read how accurate OEW is, just look back at the archives and see how ridiculous that claim is.

    • davidshort96712013 says:

      I did check the archives and that’s not quite correct. The archives show a medium term “uptrend” within weeks of the 666 low. The long term inflection point was in 2/2010 and was a confirmed bull market in 3/2010. Don’t take my word for it – go look ?

      • whitedisk says:

        Not correct ?- did you read a different Sept 24 2011 post? That’s just one I picked – there are many more if you have read them consistently over the years. I never said anything about the medium term count. The long term count was bearish for as long as 2.5 years, more than half way through this bull market. That’s a fact. Also, there have been several inflection points over the past few years, not just one. What I wrote was what Tony now claims – that he was expecting a 5-wave Primary bull market “all along” – that is flat out false.

      • tony caldaro says:

        thank you David,
        Since the term “all along” was misinterpreted I deleted it.
        All one had to do, was read the previous weekend report for clarification:
        Unfortunately, those of STS are always looking for flaws in STOs.
        Real or imagined.

      • Therefore, as we noted this week, it’s time to get cautious on this market. It is not a new bull market, only a bear market rally.

        the above was from the May 23 2009 posting…….spx was trading low 900’s……..i think that juncture qualifies for your mentioned ” “uptrend” within weeks of the 666 low.”

      • M1 says:

        david, it looks like you missed this special report.
        I’ve posted this link at least a couple of times during the past two or three years. Pls check:

      • That’s the problem with this elliot wave guy who keeps proclaiming that he is bullish but then try to time the short term moves and fails miserably. If one had traded based on his day to day write ups one would be down big.

      • mcmasoniam says:

        whitedisk = Erka

        Still trying to find out what Tony’s signal is for confirmations of downtrends / uptrends. 4 years and still can’t get the info. for free. tisk, tisk, disk.

        disk is a SIMPLE guy; no need to SIMPLIFY!

    • Not sure what was written back then. But if you are correct what can you do? Everybody gets it wrong sometimes. I think Caldaro has done his best to play it right. Not so easy in a manipulated market for a managed economy. I have been wrong for the last 3 years myself. Market moves on the fed not fundamentals or wave counts. But where do we go from here is the question? Very little protection being bought. Low volatility, cannot amount any sell off.

    • RDC says:

      Whitedisk: so you have been reading this blog for more than 4 years? hmmmm …it looks quite “illogical” to me 🙂

    • ISINCODE says:


      I would have to say that I use Tony’s information and analysis as a “roadmap” and not a crystal ball as most who try to criticize him. If anyone claims to have a crystal ball please share this most valuable information. Most will use several sources of information including Tony’s respected knowledge to digest, monitor and adjust their trading plans. Why bother spending time being critical of others work if you don’t have the guts to do what Tony has done for many who need more information not less. Please, If you don’t get value using Tony’s blog as a source of information then at least try to humble yourself by not saying anything or …… just leave.

      PS.. I have included a link on 3 ways to be humble.

    • chrisk44342 says:

      Hey brother,

      I acknowledge I do not follow OEW, but no EW fairly well, and if you are expecting accurate predictions, you have a significant misunderstanding of any kind of pattern method of trading/speculating/investing. EW is there to provide a roadmap- it’s up to you to act on triggers, whatever they may be, before taking action. If something conflicts with your trigger and/or wave pattern, you modify and adjust your risk, because that’s all you have control over. Your outburst is nearly identical to every single person out there looking for a guru, only constantly to be disappointed. As Van the man once said, No Guru, No Teacher….

  25. thanks for the update Tony. You always provide something new for us to learn! 🙂 I agree that minor 1 is in and now in minor 2. Using some fibs, assuming minute a and b are in, then minute c of minor 2 targets somewhere in the 1825-1817 area, IMHO, with an ideal target of 1822. That’s where c=0.764x a and where the 1.618x extension of Major 1 is, measured from Major 2. This is also close enough to the “38.2% retrace at SPX 1818” so to say.

    Detailed chart can be found here: http://soulsurferusa.wordpress.com/2014/01/05/spx-update-happy-new-year/

    FYI: 1.236x extension of Primary I, measured from Primary II targets 1944. 2.000x extension of Major 1, measured from Major 2 targets 1953. Intermediate v of Major 5 equals int. med. i and iii, measured from iv targets 1954. (I have SPX currently in int. med. v). I like this 1944-1954 cluster. I like it a lot 😉


  26. torehund says:

    Many stocks working on a wave 2 that coincides with the index picture, however the ones I look at are coming from yearly deeply oversold, so the wave 2 doesn’t have to go very deep to be legitimate.
    I am currently expecting this bull to continue half-ways into 2015, so go for the laggards, ship won’t go down until they are erected into a standing position (making them into multi baggers).
    Thanks for your weekend efforts Tony.

    • mcmasoniam says:

      tore, see my msg. to you at top of Friday Update. Trying not to crowd this Update, as it has to last through Monday. Apologies Tony…


    • perversionofthemean says:

      What symbols interest you, and are therefore thinking these laggards will become relative leaders?

      I’m convinced that a 3 is often longest etc., but a blowoff 5th is welcome too.

  27. M1 says:

    I’ve been watching your “zzzzzzb INDU Major 3” chart for several weeks. (It is at the last page)
    My question: Is it possible the Dow just finished its major wave 3 ? (15703 being minor wave 4 of interm wave v of major 3).
    A 38.2% fib retrac will take the Dow back to 14800. (By the way, that will fit with my projection on NDX at 3150) =)
    Should we wait for a brake below 16250 next week ?
    What do you think ?

  28. Major 1 -> 1729.86-1627.47=102.39
    Major 2 -> 1729.47-1646.47=83
    Major 3 -> 1813.55-1646.47=167.08
    Major 4 -> 1813.55-1767.99=45.56

    Major 5 -> 1849.44-1767.99=81.45 (maybe done, maybe ongoing)

    • Sorry Tony, posted too early and tried to attach a chart but didn’t work. Is this possible for Primary III (and those majors are Minors)


      • Minor 1 -> 1729.86-1627.47=102.39
        Minor 2 -> 1729.47-1646.47=83
        Minor 3 -> 1813.55-1646.47=167.08
        Minor 4 -> 1813.55-1767.99=45.56

        Minor 5 -> 1849.44-1767.99=81.45 (maybe done, maybe ongoing)

        to finish Major 3 of Primary III

      • Thanks Tony,

        It makes sense, if this was major4 then the whole year would’ve been a down year (since major 4 should take longer than a month), and would make January a down month…

        Have a great weekend, and Thank You!

  29. blackjak100 says:

    I’m still onboard with the cycle B wave nearing completion. This would be a minor 4 wave correction targeting 1820-1825 before final fifth wave up towards the OEW 1869 pivot.

    I’m expecting a slowly improving economy in 2014 with a declining stock market. It would catch most off guard which is what wall st always strives for!

    Call me crazy but I’m sticking with my call for the last 3-4 months!

    • kvilia says:

      In agreement.

    • mcmasoniam says:

      Evening blackjack. Have your wave B as alternate and watching carefully. Recognizing that time is secondary to price, would still like you opinion as to when you thing spx might see the 1869 pivot. Any timeline idea? Thanks an keep warm!

    • chrisk44342 says:

      It’s a possibility. I think I said before it may not really matter too much if you’re investing and not trading. Tony could call a P3 top, and you could call a B wave top, the market could fall, and a major b of yours could coincide with a failed primary 5th. We will only know in hindsight, after the cyclical corrective wave is over, if Tony was right or you were right. All that matters is that we get the market right, no?

    • mcmasoniam says:

      1828 holding up well. Hope it continues and this sideways action burns off a lot of the overbought conditions. Got our 10-ptr for the day, so, tally-ho!


  30. Hi Tony

    On the long term count – when do you expect this markets to see a bull market top?

    Before you stated late winter, early 2014 – what do you think now?

    Thank you

  31. mcmasoniam says:

    Thanks for the great Update, Tony.

    Think sentiment might play a big part if UI isn’t renewed, at least, short-term, or, if there’s a big political tussle over it.



  32. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony ~ Enjoy the New Year

  33. Hi Tony!

    Always very nice to read your weekend update. Thank´s a lot.
    I have one comment, that concerns the timespan of the present minor 2 wave.
    2 weeks are to long for a minorwave to unfold IMO.
    The reason for this is that the intermediate 2 wave was complete in 2 weeks, and the present wave is of a lesser degree (minor).
    The same reasoning concerns the labelling of Major 4 in the SPX charts. If we put the major 4 label in the SPX chart on oct 9 (as in Dow), the timespan for major 4 will be 10 weeks (instead of 3,5 weeks) and the “minor 2 wave” of intermediate 1 will be labelled intermediate C of major 4 (Running flat).

    Very best wishes Sverker

  34. fbender7 says:

    Thanks for a concise and most helpful update Tony. You have a way of parting the fog!

  35. Thanks Tony. Minor 2 possible targets are very helpful. When minor 3 starts we have minimum 81 points to play to upside.

    • 777daimon says:

      yes dear.
      as time, based on the cycle theory developed by me, minor 3 will roll until 19-21 March 2014 (anyway, 3rd week of March).

      • 777daimon says:

        but until then we still have to manage this minor 2 – I hope it ends soon.
        I don’t like corrective waves in a bull market – gives me some chills :).
        There are some chances that we won’t see SPX minor 2 below 1800… but who knows? this market has tricked bigger names than us …. persons that manage hundreds of millions of $.

    • 777daimon, What is your cycle theory telling about possible minor 2 completion timelines?? A week, 2 weeks or 3 weeks??

  36. bouraq says:

    Weekend charts – Thank you:
    #DJIA #RUT #FTSE #GOLD #OIL #COFFEE #AUDUSD http://www.tradingchannels.co.uk/2014/01/weekend-charts-thank-you.html

  37. RDC says:

    Tony, Thank you for an outstanding weekend update.

  38. llerias7 says:

    Tony, why spx1849 it is not the iii of the extended 5?

    That would make this correction a iv b4 a final stretch to 1870-1890 (v – 5 – PIII)

  39. Pingback: Risk-Reward Market Report – 2014.01 | The Risk-Reward Report

  40. rolandu11 says:

    An ugly date for a correction. For the sentiment that could be of importance. But I still have no medium-term selling signals. For that the bears still have to make an effort.


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