friday update

SHORT TERM: choppy day to end week, DOW +29

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.5%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 1832 close. After the rally continued to SPX 1838 by 10am, the market pulled back to 1829 by noon. Another rally attempt followed. At 1:15 FED governor Stein’s speech was released: Then at 2:30:  chairman Bernanke’s speech was released. By 3:30 the market had hit SPX 1337. Then a pullback into the close ended the week at SPX 1831.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.50%. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude dropped $1.20, Gold rose $13 and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1828 and 1779 pivots, with resistance at the 1841 and 1869 pivots. Last night the FED reported an increase in the M1-multiplier: 0.722 v 0.710. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 51.8% v 51.9%.

The market opened higher today, rallied to SPX 1838, then pulled back to 1829 and the 1828 pivot again. After that it turned higher into the afternoon, before pulling back again to end the day. The decline from Tuesday’s SPX 1849 high is certainly beginning to look like a Minor wave pullback. Market activity has become choppy: 1828-1838-1829- then up and down, with a downward bias. These types of 10 or so point swings have been quite common during pullbacks of this degree. Expecting this to continue for a while.

Short term support remains at the 1828 pivot and SPX 1814, with resistance at the 1841 pivot and SPX 1849. Short term momentum bounced around today between neutral and oversold, ending just below neutral. The short term OEW charts also vacillated today, ending negative with the reversal level now SPX 1835. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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17 Responses to friday update

  1. mcmasoniam says:

    “torehund says:
    January 4, 2014 at 3:04 pm
    Many stocks working on a wave 2 that coincides with the index picture, however the ones I look at are coming from yearly deeply oversold, so the wave 2 doesn’t have to go very deep to be legitimate.
    I am currently expecting this bull to continue half-ways into 2015, so go for the laggards, ship won’t go down until they are erected into a standing position (making them into multi baggers).
    Thanks for your weekend efforts Tony.”

    Hi tore. I consider you somewhat of The Sage of this part of the markets, and I’ve got names here and names there, but would like a couple of “multi-bagger” names that YOU really like? Much thanks!

  2. magnus1234 says:

    Tony. Happy new year!
    Bernankes speech you posted is really good. Recomended reading in my opinion.
    Ben Bernanke is very underestimated in your country. I wish we had him as head of our CB.

  3. blackjak100 says:

    No changes in the metals…multi week/month bear market rally underway. Still think we see gold approach $1000 in 2014 but I don’t want to get too far ahead of myself.

    WTI has clearly moved down in one wave so far. Would like to see multi day bounce starting mon and then down to $90-$93 to complete 3 wave structure before rally towards $104ish.

    I’m now watching APPL as it approaches $530. I think there’s a final long side trade approaching with target $580-$600. Cheers and stay warm!

  4. Thanks Tony. Do you think minor a & b completed and minor c completing on Monday or early next week. If you are covering this in weekend’s update please ignore this.

    To rest all… as mentioned here yesterday…my XLF longs worked great today. EEM short is flat. Citi showed great action but major resistance at 54. If it breaks out with good volume then it is going to be a great play in coming weeks. GL all.

    • Congrats on your trade, Peter. Thanks, Tony. As usual, a good many of us await your weekend update. May you enjoy your weekend.

      • Thanks Jedi. Congrats on your NEM and GLD trades. You definitely caught the bottom on those trades. Kudos to you. I am also following GLD, GDX and SLV but from EW point of view I am waiting for wave 2 to unfold on a daily chart of this bear market rally to enter the trade. Tony’s Gold update definitely adds a strong case to your GLD trade. Good Luck on those trades.

    • I think you must mean minute waves a, b, & c because the higher degree wave (2) is currently being evaluated as a minor wave (2).

  5. mcmasoniam says:

    Thank you, Tony. Your efforts are much appreciated! I’ve heard that more, VERY cold weather of the most dangerous sort is headed your direction next week. Please, take good care of You and Yours!

    From what I can put together, I truly think that Q4 earnings will be the most important earnings season in years; quite possibly since The Crisis began. The culmination of a number of things; QE taper, interest rates rising, auto and other big ticket item sales, including many say Home Sales. I’m not sure I agree w/Home Sales (as if that matters, lol). I’m a native of the city I live in, and thousands that work for my company are transferring to this area over the next year, thus, my Co. has asked me to help locate some decent property (dry, not flood prone) for as many of them as possible. However, not a one of them (Transferees) has asked to see any properties, nor have I gotten any new requests during T’giving/Christmas. I’m not sure these people who’re crunching the numbers are getting enough oxygen otherwise. Not only do we have The Holidays, but extremely cold weather extending into Q1, I think the upswing in HS will at least be delayed this year. Reaction early next week is unsure, perhaps flat to down at first, but I’m in for wave 3, that’s bound to show up eventually. My concern, as usual, is JOBS.

    blackjack, if you’re reading this, any further thoughts on metals or WTI?

    GL and Good Weekend to All!

  6. thanks Tony; looks certainly choppy down to me -hence corrective. Many stocks up, many stocks down, not much direction. Looking forward to the weekend update!

  7. M1 says:

    This looks like a tiny pullback when we look at the long term charts. However, I am starting to feel NDX cycle wave 4 may be alreay unfolding. Should this feeling be correct, NDX could well be headed to 3150 to find its first support short term
    This is only a guesstimate
    Tony will have the final word as usual.

    • M1 says:

      As you know, I am counting:
      NDX 2007 Highs = Cycle wave 1;
      NDX 2008 Lows = Cycle wave 2
      NDX 2013 Highs = Cycle wave 3 ?

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