monday update

SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW +26

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. European markets opened flat and lost 0.3%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight as well, and the market opened one point above Friday’s SPX 1841 close. After that the market continued its pullback. At 10am Pending home sales were reported higher: +0.2% v -0.6%. By 10:30 the market hit SPX 1839, then bounced to 1841 by 11:30. After a retest of SPX 1839 by 1pm, the market bounced back to the opening 1842. Then a pullback into a SPX 1841 close ended the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.10%. Bonds gained 9 ticks, Crude lost $1.10, Gold slid $17, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1884 pivots. Nothing on the agenda for the last day of trading of the year tomorrow.

The market opened one point higher than Friday’s close. Then went into the narrowest trading range in 17 years, (three points), for the rest of the day. Not much to add to the weekend update. The market has only pulled back six points, thus far, from its SPX 1845 all time high posted on Friday. While it did look like there was some profiting taking today. It wasn’t enough to move the averages much.

Short term support remains at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1884 pivots. Short term momentum dropped below neutral, but ended the day there. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1833. Happy New Year!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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69 Responses to monday update

  1. mcmasoniam says:

    Hey bj, I was at Whole-Paycheck earlier today, saw traders gathered around muted TV (Tony’s their advisor). 10-yr. at 3.03, and think it was Ira Harris had prediction in ’14 for 3.04?! Could hear the laughter across the store. So are you watching 10-yr? This, for me, is going to be the tough call, at least for 2nd half… Wait, did Kelly just say, “Baby-boomers want to use more drugs?” LOL! Movin’ to Co-lo-ra-do soon, gonna be a dental floss tycoon.

  2. torehund says:

    Happy new years to Tony and the gang, bulls and bears.
    Hoping for another prolific year to come !

    Nothing much to add, as the market is on a solid track for now.

  3. mcmasoniam says:

    Abby Doo finally came out and said she’s paranoid!
    Howard Dean has come out and said markets have more to go… Now I’M paranoid!

  4. So, if we are on a iv of a minor I then this is v of 1, and gap up should lead to a sell off Like someone already said… but if we gap and go, then we are on str8 to the moon 5th wave of PRI-III, if we crawl up nonstop then 3rd of III… Me guesses…


  5. Cashin say 600 HUNDRED Million for sale on the close and the Dow jumps 35 points. Only in 2013 can we sell 600 million on the close and go up no matter what.

  6. thoth8 says:

    Happy and healthy New 2014, Tony and to all!

  7. alexhartley1 says:

    I think we’re in minute iv now and that we might see an overnight low going into 2-3rd Jan (Bradley Turn Indicator). 1828 – 1835 target range. Then minute v into mid-Jan. I am currently looking for a PIII top in March.

  8. kisshu2 says:

    Tony would closing the gap today qualify for wave 4 of minor 1?

  9. Happy new year everybody!! Looks like minute v of minor 1 has started!

  10. Looks like they want to peg 1850. one way market in 2013

  11. pooch77 says:

    Dont see gap on 20th

  12. gary61b says:

    The rut and ndx have gaps on 12/20, 60 min, if this turns out to be a correction abc then they could fill. Happy New Year to everyone and may we all prosper. TY Tony.

  13. Date #Days Price Size of rally/decline
    02/01/2013 1426
    19/02/2013 48 1531 105
    26/02/2013 7 1485 -46
    11/04/2013 44 1597 112
    18/04/2013 7 1536 -61
    22/05/2013 34 1687 151
    24/06/2013 33 1560 -127
    02/08/2013 39 1710 150
    28/08/2013 26 1627 -83
    18/09/2013 21 1729 102
    09/10/2013 21 1646 -83
    29/11/2013 51 1814 168
    18/12/2013 19 1768 -46
    27/12/2013 9 1845 77 ongoing

    SPX, the main highs/lows of 2013.
    Take just the rallies, the average rally is 131 points. We’ve done 77 so far. That simple analysis implies a target of 1899 for this rally.

  14. M1 says:

    If we are going to get that long waited correction on the spx, we should look for a 38.2% Fib retrac.
    This means 38.2% of 771 (1074 to 1845) = 295 points. (that’s only a 16% drop). At this point, the expected selloff should find support at 1550.
    Happy New Year to all.

  15. mcmasoniam says:

    Sorry, but feel the need for one more post. If you haven’t heard, HP plans to cut even more jobs than originally thought (or at least, announced). I think many companies are going to do this, and given, as posters already know, Housing is directly correlated to Jobs, I think Job cuts are the biggest danger to all assets in US markets, not like 2008, but just due to lack of purchasing power, even if others (foreigners) come in and pay cash, they’re buying at least at a 20% premium (maybe more) than they could in a years time. GL All. I want a Townhome/Condo when I retire, but will wait until prices are bottoming (2018ish?), due to overbuilding (is the habit here in Texas), and exhaustion of cash buyers.

    Bye for now!

    • fbender7 says:

      In the spirit of simplification, have you given any thought to buying a piece of land and building your own straw bale house? Just a thought, Happy New Year!

  16. M1 says:


  17. 777daimon says:

    To Tony and all here:


  18. blackjak100 says:

    McM, it looks like crude completed a 3 up to $100.75 (a=.618*c) and is now headed down. However, I’m not convinced the 2nd wave is over since wave 1 took 13 weeks and we are only in week 5/6 of retracement. Possible 3-3-5 to $103-$105 in another 4-6 weeks. Short term could be heading back to $92 in a 2nd 3 wave structure. My best guess as of now anyway.

    • mcmasoniam says:

      Mornin’ bj. I think the $102-ish is all it’s going to give, regardless of the week 5/6 retracement. I expressed an opinion to/DRiley when everyone was trying to boost the price weeks ago; that to place the retrace price at possibly as high as $110 was not something in which I wanted to involve myself. I’m relatively new to CL, but am definitely interested if I can get at least a $10 swing out of it, using unadulterated math. I’ll share what I hear and see, please as you always do, continue to share with us. Much thanks and Best of Luck (BOL) to You.

      • blackjak100 says:

        It does not have the right look IMO if it’s over at $101, but being short right now is the correct trade regardless.

  19. blackjak100 says:

    Gold should plunge today currently at $1201. Looks like Minuette 3 of minute 5 underway with initial target of $1166. Final Bottom should be near $1160. Cheers!

    • mcmasoniam says:

      bj, considering best guesses of price of GLD at it’s low when gold nears 1160? 1160 is a bit lower than I had originally thought… but, it’s gold. I think GLD puts is the only way to work this (for me), so looking for low and retrace high, and timing & price of GLD of that retrace. GL Everyone!
      Simplify (trying…).

  20. Thought of sharing this article with you all. Interesting one….
    “13 Technical Signs That Preceded Major Tops ”

  21. Thanks Tony.
    My guess is tomorrow we will see some more downside or sideways action then gap up on first trading day of New year to complete minute wave 1 then starts minute wave 2 of Int. wave three correction. If Tony’s weekend projection plays out then we should see at least 30 to 40 points correction in SPX. GL all.

  22. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony !

    In broader sense P3 must conclude in early(jan-feb) 2014 and then a P4 of 10 % from top & a correction of two-three months following a P5 ending the bull market in Fall 2014-winter 2015.

    But what was this low of 4 year presidential cycle to coincide ?
    “When Primary III does conclude we should see the biggest correction we have seen in over a year for Primary IV. Which may coincide with the four-year presidential cycle low””””

    are you expecting a correction of more than 10 % for P4. if so , why ?

  23. blackjak100 says:

    It’s possible wave 2 completed at $101ish. I’m going to study charts tonight and see if this makes sense based on structure.

    I hope I didn’t miss the trade as I’ve been talking about it for a couple of weeks. Still short gold for another day or two before going long. I think the long gold trade could be initiated on thurs.

    • blackjak100 says:

      This was suppose to be response to mcM….sorry!

    • mcmasoniam says:

      bj, gotcha. I’ve been watching WTI also, and it’s quite possibly over. I can’t quite be sure at this point. Interested in knowing your opinion when you have one. Have a great evening.

  24. bouraq says:

    Gold’s misery persists

  25. mcmasoniam says:

    Much thanks, Tony!

    Is Ralph Acampora a bit confused, or what? “Should he stay or should he go?” The gift of gab.

  26. Thanks Tony!

    Every little bit that was being sold, was picked up without much discount… Bulls seem to be getting ready for another charge in a few days… will be very interesting several days starting Jan 2nd.

    Happy New year!

  27. llerias7 says:

    I think we may call this day a “non-event”…will be diferent tomorrow?

  28. fbender7 says:

    Makes me wonder if the 6-point drop from 1845 is all we get for minute iv of minor 1. Since minute ii was a sharp 10-point pullback, minute iv should be a sideways-moving pullback; perhaps not as steep in price as minute ii.

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