friday update

SHORT TERM: new highs then consolidation, DOW -1

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.1%. US index futures were higher overnight and the market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 1842 close. That was the high for the day. The market then pulled back to SPX 1840 by 11am, bounced to 1843 by 11:30, then hit 1840 again around 1:30. After another rally attempt failed at SPX 1842 the market closed right at the 1841 OEW pivot.

For the day the SPX/DOW were flat, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.25%. Bonds lost 1 tick, Crude gained 60 cents, Gold rose $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1884 pivots. Last night the FED reported a decline in the Monetary base: $3.670tn v $3.716tn. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 51.9% v 52.1%.

The market opened higher for the fifth trading day in a row, as the SPX made new highs right at the open. The rest of the day was spent in consolidation within a five point trading range. In fact, everyday this week has had a 4 or 5 point trading range after the open. The pullback, as minimal as it was, did take short term momentum to about neutral from an extremely overbought condition. However, the three wave rally from SPX 1768 now displays a third wave slightly longer than the first: 1811-1801-1845. This market can now experience a larger pullback, more in the 10 point range, at any time.

Short term support remains at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1884 pivots. Short term momentum has backed off to neutral. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1830. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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8 Responses to friday update

  1. hooloo1957 says:

    in a lot of trading situations, I like the general rule Smart is stupid, stupid is smart!!


  2. Thanks Tony. Do you think the so called smart money will let that 20 points drop to happen. They just jump on it as soon as they see little over 10 points drop. Until this euphoria stops no need to short this market. If I am really itchy to short then china (FXI) is my choice. But even FXI is now consolidating at 50 DMA and 200 DMA. GL all.


  3. M1 says:

    It may be possible counting 5 waves from 1019 on the NDX chart.
    We may be around an inflection point. So NDX must keep running to clear the way up and confirm cycle wave 3 will extend to 2.61 times cycle wave 1.


  4. mcmasoniam says:

    Have a great weekend, Tony.
    PauPau and Aloha.


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