tuesday update

SHORT TERM: higher open = new highs, DOW +63

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Durable goods orders were reported higher: +3.5% v -1.6%, and at 9am FHFA housing prices were reported higher: +0.5% v +0.3%. The market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 1828 close, dipped to 1829, then gradually moved higher. At 10am New home sales were reported higher: 464k v 444k. By 11:30 the SPX hit 1833 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.15%. Bonds lost 12 ticks, Crude added 30 cents, Gold rose $6, and the USD was higher. Medium term support moves up to the 1828 and 1779 pivots, with resistance now at the 1841 and 1869 pivots. Tomorrow is a holiday, and the markets open on Thursday with weekly Jobless claims at 8:30.

The market opened higher today in holiday trading, made a new high and closed there. Not much to add to yesterday’s report. Still three waves up from the FED SPX 1768 low: 1811-1801-1833. The third wave is now approaching the length of the first which is quite normal: 32 pts. v 43 pts. Short term momentum is still creating a negative divergence, but no downside pressure as of yet. The OEW 1841 pivot appears to be next.

Short term support is at the 1828 pivot and SPX 1814, with resistance at the 1841 and 1869 pivots. Short term momentum is creating a negative divergence. The short term OEW charts are still positive with the reversal level now SPX 1815. Happy holiday to you and yours!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend continues

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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72 Responses to tuesday update

  1. radrian6 says:

    Hello all,
    Here is a semi-log daily chart of the RUT. Imposed on the price graph are 20-day Bollinger Bands and a 50-day MA (blue). In the upper sub-graph is the RUT volatility index (RVX) and in the lower sub-graph is the Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO). I’ve added vertical lines (purple) to mark the momentum high for each cycle so you can see the relative positions of the RVX and DPO. RUT is once again at wedge resistance and if it holds, RUT should either consolidate sideways then correct to the 50-day MA or just start correcting immediately. There is also the possibility that RUT could break above wedge resistance toward channel resistance.


    • mcmasoniam says:

      Taking a bit of profit isn’t a crime. Looks really ripe. I tend to like RUT too, but have learned to sell a bit to seal the deal (get $ back). GL!

  2. mcmasoniam says:

    Last blog: At that 1841 pivot right now. (Like hot knife through butter.) Makes the rest of today and Friday more interesting.

    Was just watching the Real Estate segment on Dallas area. Give me a break! Think I’ll take my old surfing buddy up on her offer when I retire. Rent out the upstairs of her TO DIE FOR beautiful home in the mountains on Kauaii. The Mainland can kiss my #*%!.

    GL All. Take the easy money while you can. M

  3. rc1269 says:

    i get scared when making money is this easy; it shouldn’t be

  4. 777daimon says:

    I’m somewhat pleased that finally my medium to long term target will be reached – that is 1870-1880 before a pullback.
    during all those weeks the only problem was that I lost a few times the faith in my target.
    but I’m pleased to see it now so close.
    no place for pullbacks now, pump it up to the hot spot, please! 🙂

  5. budfox9450 says:

    NM shares, appear to be going vertical.

  6. elmer510 says:

    The macroeconomic outlook for US is now better than for many years. Remember the US has been driving on low gear most of the time since the financial crisis, and now finally both Oecd and Imf give some stronger positive signals for next year. Perhaps we could see som heating in the markets which could give a positve spill over effects in the stock market.
    Perhaps Tony must postphone the next downturn into 2015..

  7. pooch77 says:

    After further review small caps should run up into 1st of year, was a bit pre mature on 24th

  8. tommyboys says:

    Merry belated all…
    After looking at today’s AAII sentiment I wouldn’t be surprised to see a more significant pullback over the coming couple weeks – 55% bulls! Ouch…

    Although if in the beginnings of a mania phase as Mr. Hope suggests then possibly not. Have to
    Wait and see…

    • uncle10 says:

      I had to read that 3 times to make sure I was seeing right?!?! Tboy wouldn’t be surprised to have a significant pullback?!?! Never thought I would see that kind of post from you. going to be interesting as always….

      • tommyboys says:

        Not doing much about it regardless. Will hold right through as I believe I have strong names growing rapidly and markets will go higher longer term. Gotta keep flexible and vigilant in the markets at all times however FWIW…

      • uncle10 says:

        I hear you Tboys.
        Agree with you about flexible and vigilant…

  9. michael sim says:

    Hi Guys!

    Would it be possible that we are in a final int Wave v of Major Wave 5?

    Assuming the ff:
    1729 is int Wave i instead of minor wave 1
    1646 is int Wave ii instead of minor wave 2
    1813 is int wave iii instead of int wave i
    1767 is int wave iv instead of int wave ii

    Thanks for the comments! have a gut feeling that we keep on extending and extending and it has been too long 🙂 Cheers!

  10. $SPX $SPY $TNA $UVXY $NUGT $TSLA %SPXL $TWTR, trades forr thursday,(within the remark’s section): http://standardpoor.wordpress.com

  11. 7dayyss says:

    Happy Holidays everyone. Thanks for the nice gathering place Tony and all that you continually do!

  12. bobhopium says:

    Seasons Greetings to all here, especially our “padrone della casa” Signore Caldaro. I have now had my Xmas Turkey,Xmas pud,pulled a cracker and put a silly hat on, not to mention I have had enough booze to kill a small animal…Thank goodness It will soon be over for another year ……Cheers 🙂

  13. bouraq says:

    Wish you all a merry christmas.
    Christmas update:

  14. torehund says:

    Twosided/Newbie, Bender, and all; a very good debate about our fears, the loneliness of being a stock trader, but also its immense baked in freedom. But its freedom that hinges on very thin threads of performance. I have a saying, what you think may happen, and if you believe it to happen strongly, the opposite occurs. Our fears protects us and when we feel no fear, we also fear feeling no fear and that fear also protects….but when the last fear is over, markets fall. Happy christmas everyone !

    • torehund says:

      ..and don’t forget; these bulk ships aren’t going empty-handed around the world, not saying commodities are in a bull but some coal companies are increasing their sales, don’t want to mention companies here but Peabody is a solid play and for the the less risk taking individuals, and Oxford Rescources is a name to be remembered for the big gamblers, I think its up for a renaissance if just China don’t stop using any of it.
      As Tony have mentioned the commodities is in a multiyear bear market, but at a certain time there will be rallies, as the price have dipped too far down, if this is the time is anybody’s guess, but it could be IT.
      Cold winters are coming back and even if some nat gas experts thinks otherwise. early spring could be cold too !

    • mcmasoniam says:

      tore, watching/listening to Mixed Choir of St. Olaf, live from Norway. Incredibly beautiful…

      Merry Christmas to All, and to All, a Good Night.

      Awaiting another Expat assignment. Will TTY All again someday soon. GL!

  15. Merry Christmas Tony and all.

  16. cyassin says:

    Hi Tony I wish you a mery christmas!!

  17. M1 says:

    Long Term View:
    NDX bottomed in 2002 at 795. It retraced 83.5% from its all times highs (GSC) at 4816 in 2000
    From there I can find three clear cycle waves.
    First: 795 to 2239 = 1444 points.
    Second: 2239 to 1019 = 1220 points
    Thrird and still unfolding: 1019 to 3574 = 2555 points (1.77 times cycle wave 1).

    • M1 says:

      Very Bullish: It looks this third wave could extend to 2.62 times cycle wave 1. This means a target at 4802.
      If it finished before that, I will expect a 38.2% Retracement of Cycle wave 3. (At this point: 976 points = a drop of 27.3%)

    • perversionofthemean says:

      Why aren’t you using percentages rather than points? The magnitude warrents it.

      • perversionofthemean says:

        …for the upward calculations (esp. if using them for corrective ones).

      • M1 says:

        2239/795 = 2.81 (abt a fib extension=2.618)
        3574/1019 = 3.50 so far. (Should we look for 3.618, 4.00, 4.272, 4.618 ?)
        (4802/1019 = 4.71)
        1019 x 2 (a fib ext) = 2038 (2059 was the turning point in 2010)
        I am just curious what could trigger the start of cycle wave 4. (In my opinion, only a major negative event could hit the market at this point).

      • M1 says:

        Hope we don’t see something worse than that, Tony.

  18. M1 says:

    Merry Christmas, Tony !!

  19. Merry ChristmasTony and all participants

  20. Merry Christmas, Tony and blog … and a very Happy New Year to all! Keep up the great work, Tony. Your hard work is always appreciated and looked forward to.

  21. pcskier says:

    $vix levels; 3-14-13@11.05, 8-6-13@11.84, 11-15-13@ 11.99. Today $vix is still above support, barely but it paid to buy vix at support last 3x. Algo have had an easy push up with low volume so far this week, but $vix and $tnx may catch their attention on thurs. Japan will be interesting, double top or get up and go. I don’t think their are many shorts left to squeeze from pre fomc day, so it will take real money to push higher. But who knows?

    • pcskier says:

      I think the reason $tnx did not effect the market today is $vix has to tag support, just a little lower,thurs morning than tag, and buyers will either step up and buy $ vix like Spx 13 wk MA on fomc day or $vix will break down.

      • pcskier says:

        $tnx also closed at double resistance today. Maybe breakout on thurs and vix bounce, equity sell off. Or tnx roll over, vix crash and equity run higher for you bulls.

  22. How many have you quit your jobs to be a stock trader? If you have made money in the last 5 years you didn’t have to be smart or have any skill whatsoever. All you had to do was hold your stock, unfortunately this complacency that you have been accustomed to will be your biggest weakness. You bulls have several major psychological flaws instilled in your mind that will cause your demise. Many actually believe the economy is doing well, and the fed will be there to back the market. This is the same fed that has let the dollar lose 98% of its value, this is the same fed who couldn’t save the market the last big crashes. The fed doesn’t care if America prospers they make their money from America going into DEBT!!!! They are printing money like wild animal to drive us further into debt, the more debt the better, they are a private organization. The more money they print and borrow the more money their shareholders make. Many BULLS think when the market is ready to take a dump, they will have time to get out and they wont be the ones whos account gets crushed. Many say they have stops in place so they are not concerned, well stops are not going to help you if a black swan comes and market is gapped down enormously. Think about how greedy wallstreet is and how greedy many of you are becoming. Their is so much more money to be made on the downside than the upside, many are holding overnight at all time highs like you are untouchable and assuming since we ended at or near the high of the day follow through will continue or convinced since there is no volatility things are fine. The more money you make the more money you want, its an addiction. At this point in time the Wallstreet is waiting until they have every last bull in and a time when bears are non existent before the bloodshed. (Could very well be NOW) Markets are tools for the rich to screw the masses, to think this free ride is not gonna leave many trapped you must be smoking something. I write this because I seriously think some of you have lost perspective of whats really going on here in America and this market in general, plus I will enjoy reading the feed back. Merry Christmas to all.

    • uncle10 says:

      I am smoking something and it is damn good. I suggest you partake yourself as it gives you a more chill, relaxed feeling…. The market will give the bulls/investors a chance to get out if they are paying attention. The question is whether they will or not.

      • Uncle, If you are a bull holding over night and you wake up to market down 1000+ points due to war, nuclear attack, IMF announcing dollar will no longer be reserve currency etc., will selling at that point be your chance to get out? In order to trap people at the top a black swan needs to occur , and actually a black swan event with huge economical impact would be the only way for the federal reserve to be allowed to continue printing, they love to print and they love wars their main goal is to keep America in debt.

    • I quit my job to be a trader in 2010, and boy what a mistake that was. Lost my sense of purpose and got pretty depressed. Hard to know how much you’ll miss being around people until you suddenly aren’t. A year later I got another job, got out of the house, and felt better again. Being a stay at home trader is a lonely life. One nice thing about making money trading is that you can do the job you want to do because you want to do it, not because you have to, but isolation is not good for the spirit. Hey Merry Christmas to all and try to look on the bright side of things, ok? The world is a better place than it was 5 years ago. Enjoy it while it’s happening. 🙂

      • fbender7 says:

        twosided – Thanks for sharing this. What a great message! There is no substitute for being connected to, and involved with others. It can be a hard lesson to learn for some of us. Merry Christmas!

    • fbender7 says:

      newbie – Never bet on doomsday, ’cause doomsday never comes. Pullbacks – yes, corrections – yes, bear markets – yes, but any sort of permanent doomsday? Never. Why try to influence others with fear? We’ll be in a bull market until we aren’t. We will have some degree of QE until we no longer do. These are the realities we now face.

      Wishing you the best of Christmases, and may the spirit of loving-kindness fill you with great joy and peace.

      • Fbender, not speaking to instill fear, im speaking on possibilities. Plan for the best prepare for the worst, its that simple. There may be no permanent doomsday but it only takes one 1987 crash to humble every bull on this blog. America is not prospering, its smoke and mirrors and many wont know what hit them until there trading account diassapears, their us dollar is worthless, and home value nose dives. Wake up you are being lied to and buying it with a smile. America is in decline, we dont make anything, we bully the rest of the world and print money like madmen. The writing is on the wall.

    • 7dayyss says:

      This is OEW, you keep posting on the wrong site. Here’s the hot link you keep confusing with OEW, http://www.zerohedge.com/.

      Happy Holidays!

      • 7days,
        it is obvious you can’t handle when someone has a different opinion or view than you do. I guess every time somebody’s view is different than yours it makes you feel better deep down inside by making some smart alec comment. My post addressed future possibilities, your post was of no value and did nothing but waste 10 seconds of somebody’s life

      • chrisk44342 says:

        ha ha ha. Good one 7dayyss. I was thinking the same thing

    • mcmasoniam says:

      newbie, I’m guessing Santa dumped something other than a piece of coal in your stocking. What’s the deal with the Black Duck’s? Any thing can happen at any time. What do you want us to do about it, quit? If you’re so concerned, then, start taking profits now and get out before some world leader pops a pimple. Seriously. As far as quitting one’s job to trade, I’m with 2-sided. Could probably handle it part-time, but like being out among the population. M

  23. hucky2 says:

    HH everyone
    Put 20 & 50 day Bollinger bands on a daily SPX chart – upside looks very limited
    Uncle10 could be right.

  24. rc1269 says:

    Happy Holidays Tony, and all the other fine contributors!

  25. radrian6 says:

    Hello all and Merry Christmas,
    RUT has closed above the daily upper Bollinger Band twice and the RVX (RUT volatility index) has reached the confluence of the daily lower BB and natural support at 15.60. It therefore appears that RUT has reached the momentum high for this cycle. At this point, RUT can do one of three things: break above the wedge resistance that has been in place since July; consolidate sideways to a slightly higher high then pull back toward rising support; or, start correcting immediately. The last time RUT was here, it immediately began a 4% correction but in that case the ascent was slow (15 days). This time, RUT took only nine days to reach resistance so a sideways consolidation for a number of days seems more likely. Daily and intraday technical conditions are stretched which also supports the consolidation option.

    The consolidation/pullback option may be the logical choice but don’t be surprised if RUT breaks the cycle and does something completely different. Retail traders have caught on to the RUT cycle so there may be a twist to shake them off.

    In the bigger picture, RUT has put up 400 points without a correction so be aware of the possibility of profit taking after the January window dressing. Also, I don’t see how the RUT could be on the same count as the Dow — there are too many overlaps and divergences in the RUT’s recent price pattern. Therefore, the expectations for the Dow with regard to timing and price levels may not apply to the RUT.

    • pooch77 says:

      R6, cashed in my rut calls today,cant figure out ,2 hour chart looks very stretched,daily looks like it still has room to go up.MACD on 2 hour starting to level off,i bought these calls Dec 12th so big gains,needed to take chips off table…Thanks for your commentary

    • perversionofthemean says:

      Yeah, RUT momentum has been bouncing at the same highs and lows like clockwork for weeks as prices have gone slightly parabolic. This was the case in 2000 but on the weekly charts, and until the momo lows were taken out, prices were on autopilot up until upward price targets were reached. The breakout last New Year’s elected targets much higher than present, and that’s why buy-hold and momo is working again.
      Btw – semi-log charts do not support the idea of a RUT channel line just overhead based on connecting prior highs. That looks more like support now. Interestingly, the Dow *is* below a channel on semi-log highs…

      • tony caldaro says:

        The R2K has been an uptrend since April.
        This is its longest uptrend since Mar03 to Jan04.

      • radrian6 says:

        I use semi-log charts. Connect a line from the high of July 23 through the high of November 29 and you will see what I am talking about. I don’t have time to re-post this chart right now. This line may be better termed as a rising wedge resistance rather than channel resistance. Your comment about “higher targets than present” interests me — what are these targets and how did you derive them? The cup-with-handle pattern in 2011 gives a target near 1135 which has been exceeded.

  26. wavesix says:

    thanks tony for everything you do and merry christmas…i dont post much here, but read most everything…any comments on the bond spike (on monday) or the copper spike (today) ? pretty wild stuff…

  27. Merry Christmas Tony and everybody else!

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