SHORT TERM: pullback continues, DOW -9
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.9%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight, and at 8:30 the CPI (0.0% v -0.1%) and Current accounts deficit (-$94.8bn v -$98.9bn) showed slight improvement. The market opened one point below yesterday’s SPX 1787 close, and headed lower. At 10:00 the NAHB matched its highest level in years: 58 v 54. The market continued to pullback until 11:30 when the SPX hit 1777. After touching oversold it started to rally. The rally continued until 2:30 when the SPX reached 1785. Then a pullback into the close ended the day at 1781.
For the day the SPX/DOW +0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.15%. Bonds gained 11 ticks, Crude slipped 40 cents, Gold slid $10, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1779 and 1699 pivots, with resistance at the 1828 and 1841 pivots. Tomorrow: Housing starts and Building permits at 8:30, then the FED’s FOMC statement and press conference in the afternoon.
The market opened lower today and soon thereafter took out yesterday’s SPX 1784 low, suggesting Minor b was still underway. By late morning the SPX hit 1777, was oversold short term, and started to rise. We posted a green tentative Minor b label at that low. Should this be correct the market should now rally into the mid-1790’s, or so, to complete Minor c and Intermediate wave B. With the FOMC day tomorrow this is quite possible.
Short term support remains at the 1779 pivot and SPX 1746, with resistance at SPX 1814 and the 1828 pivot. Short term momentum hit oversold today then bounced to neutral. The short term OEW charts turned negative shortly after the open with the reversal level now SPX 1785. Best to your trading on the often volatile FOMC day!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend trying to re-establish
LONG TERM: bull market