wednesday update

SHORT TERM: budget battles begin, DOW -130

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.9%. Europe opened lower, rallied, and then lost 0.3%. US index futures were lower overnight, but the market opened unchanged at SPX 1803. Right after the open, however, the market started to decline. By 12:30 the SPX hit 1787, was extremely oversold, and tried to rally. A hour later the SPX hit 1792, and began to pullback again. At 2pm the Budget deficit was reported lower: -$135.2bn v -$172.1bn. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1780, then bounced to end the day at 1782.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.95%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.35%. Bonds dropped 12 ticks, Crude slid $1.30, Gold declined $10, and the USD was lower. Odd to see everything lower. Medium term support remains at the 1779 and 1699 pivots, with resistance at the 1828 and 1841 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, along with Retail sales and Export/Import prices. Then at 10am Business inventories. Plus at some point a House vote on the proposed two year budget.

The market opened flat and then headed south. Today’s decline eliminated the potential 1-2-3-4 from the 1779 pivot, when the market dropped under 1796. Now it certainly looks like we had an ‘abc’ rally to SPX 1812, after the ‘abc’ decline to the 1779 pivot. The count posted on the SPX hourly chart stands. Since this market has bounced off the OEW 1779 pivot four times over the past month and a half. And is now back there for the fifth time. We should know shortly if the SPX 1814 all time high was the uptrend high. Or just another pause in this ongoing uptrend. Also, it is possible to count all of the activity from the SPX 1814 high as a failed flat: 1779-1812-1780. The next couple of days look to be important short and medium term.

Short term support is at the 1779 pivot and SPX 1746, with resistance at SPX 1810 and SPX 1818. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold, and displays a slight positive divergence. The short term OEW charts turned negative right after the open with the reversal level now SPX 1798. Best to your trading on House (US Gov’t Budget) voting day!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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139 Responses to wednesday update

  1. torehund says:

    from oct 21 until now its an abc down on the macs, minute. from here we should get a rally if not something is severely rotten in Denmark, and everywhere else for that matter.

  2. ewtoriginal says:

    Round 8. Potential knockout after a powerful round fed by the largest POMO of the week and a strong positive divergence by IWM against DJIA and SPX and even NDX throughout the day.
    The long version-round 8 only:

    And my personal favorite,from the BBC and despite the written copy on the video where just before the moment, the BBC announcer recognizes the pummeling of the older guy :

  3. waddaguess says:

    One more bounce to 1785 would be a stronger pattern.

  4. gary61b says:

    spx 1780 break of neckline and retest,

    • pcskier says:

      Yes!!!! Gary, break support retest support, fail!!!! Yesterday at 4:57PM here on this blog I said INDU 15791 need to be a taken out and than retested. Done, check, TEXTBOOK, heavy selling should take place tomorrow!!!!

  5. Whos ready for wave 4 to end here and then drop into a 5 taking us to 1760 area?

    • ewmarkets says:

      R2K bounced from 1100. FB up over 5%. Yelp doing well. Various other momentum stocks are doing great as well (TSLA, DDD, NFLX, SFUN, etc.) Does not look or feel like the downward movement is to continue. More upside seems in the cards.

    • cmparis says:

      Pretty weak bounce so far….

  6. kvilia says:

    Mr. Caldaro, Mr. Lee and the rest of the honorable circle,
    Do you feel the coming bounce is to be shorted? If you were to bet on probability that this is Primary 4, would you give at least 50% its in the works?
    Have a great day, all!

    • RDC says:

      I have no doubts markets will rally hard next week right after Fed meeting and continue into new year. How far it will go up I let Tony make the call but I do expect Primary 4 to begin some times in Jan. JMO.

    • 777daimon says:

      on Friday and Monday (next week) US senate and house will vote on budget agreement for 2 years extension ! After that there will come the news related to no taper executed by FED in December (on Wednesday, next week).
      Those news have a great bullish potential, so be very nimble when shorting.
      I won’t give 50% for Primary IV – it’s a huge bet!
      Maximum 5 to 10% chances!

      • kvilia says:

        Thank you, I will be very careful. However, it looks like there is no road blocks in front of a new rally, and what do they say? Sell when everyone buys?
        I really hope the strength of the bounce will show us the way.

  7. Bullish sentiment was as high as that in spring 1987 ..makes for an interesting study with regards to the depth of the fall…

    • torehund says:

      what can happen is that the bullish sentiment may actually decline if we get a good rally…a top in sentiment isn’t necessarily the index top. However if the next top in sentiment is lower, then we will have a neg div and then its scary.
      RUT has just gained 10 percent from the breakout, it isn’t a lot.

  8. torehund says:

    Santa needs to get his sledge called RUT out of the garage,,,won’t be any CR-mas with this lousy action, its an abc down, hope its complete.

  9. H D says:

    what a hit! 10 handles. Rule#1 if Lee is buying don’t be short. Impossible to R&R w this action. Where r the POMO, FED, yada yada posts?

    • H D says:

      I am seeing technical damage everywhere. No need to be a hero. We must assume bear trap, as all other hits, but the compalcency is alarming. The DT set up, *1808, some were pounding the table. I’d watch that neck line/overlap for the retraces. It’ll have to move more than 5 for a rally.

      • tony caldaro says:

        agree, have gone straight down from 1812 with only 5 point bounces
        need more than 5 to get the buyers back from holiday shopping

      • ewtoriginal says:

        It is also very possible that the dip buyers have been buying all the way down in December -It is always safe. If they turn sellers, it would comply with the unknown adage that the buyers are higher and the sellers are lower.
        If the current selling has anything to do with the implementation of the Volcker Rule,that would be interesting and the results unexpected. the rule is not effective for a long while but firms are required to begin steps to comply immediately

    • Lee says:

      Hey H D
      I’m probably the worst ES/SPX trader on this blog , just a squiggle scalping Mama’s boy who takes what they give me, good and bad
      My positions whatever they are at the moment are like pimples on the butt of a pimple on a butt :)).
      Happy Holidays !!! And thanks for what u do here all the time.

      • H D says:

        Ha, butt zits suck! Hey they gave us a great year SPX, the bots ran it 10 handles almost daily. I learned to love it. Find SPX easier, mostly cuz Tony gives us a map every day! There is some statistical data for TH low (today) I know I’m nerdy numbers dude but …

  10. Lee says:

    There’s the SPX print at the lower range of the 1779 pivot @ days low so far that some were “hoping” for..dont tell me there’s no Santa !..If u want to get long cheap long by definition and if ur riding shorts u know the drill. Thats #4 so see ya’s

  11. Let`s face it. This is Primary 4.

  12. hucky2 says:

    Doesn’t look like the $3.00 – $4.00 billion Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases today is having much effect on the trend.

    • tommyboys says:

      Right these purchases happen everyday in the open market and have little to no effect. Watched these for years and any apparent effect was just coincidence usually.

    • hucky2 says:

      Does anyone have proof that they actually make these purchases or could it just be b s or hot air?

  13. Lee says:

    Bots r us..test what has not been tested then test what u think wont be tested.
    Smile u have the best job in the world no need to compete with anyone except urself.

  14. bobhopium says:

    Bulls desperately trying to hold this impotent technical area imo
    S&P fut daily:-

    • tommyboys says:

      They will need to take out stops below whatever the strongest support is. Only then will it reverse – and on relative big volume….1770? 1750?…time will tell. Trying to add a few quality micros in the event they get banged up…

  15. bobhopium says:

    Seeing basing signs in the future that we might have a floor here @1777/79…Goona try my luck.

  16. whopping 2.5 % correction on S&P looks done? Caldaro any thoughts?

  17. pooch77 says:

    RUT2K bottom ?? Looking good

  18. pbnj123 says:

    a = c right here @ 1777.06

  19. blackjak100 says:

    I suspect selling will accelerate with a break below 1775.22

  20. blackjak100 says:

    RDC, I agree with your view in gold as I’m short from 1255 with target of 1190. This should complete a ABC move down from 1420. I don’t know about long term, but I will flip bullish below 1200 for a target near 1400. Obviously will adjust as it progresses.

  21. If this was the bottom, it is very bullish, if lower then forget about a big rally soon… JMHO

  22. pcskier says:

    Call of the day tag $spx 1787 and than roll over!!

  23. pooch77 says:

    TNA down 1 1/2% and iwm up.15 any reason for that

  24. lunker1 says:

    R2K touched its 13 month TL while making a perfect C=A. Is SPX making a pennant triangle for Int 4?

  25. RDC says:

    Look for Gold to retest June low 1180 then Gold will be very bullish after that for longer term. I think this will happen due to year end tax loss selling.

  26. pooch77 says:

    Bradley does not state highs or lows just turndates

  27. jparkins10 says:

    2014 Bradley is out, shows a 1/1 low, 7/16 year high and 11/20 year low

    • ewtoriginal says:

      Is Bradley predicting the Santa Claus crash of 2013?
      What degree of accuracy has been found in Bradley models in the past 4 years for example?

  28. $SPX $SPY $UVXY $DRN $TSLA, market update and trades for thursday (within remark’s section of blog):

  29. 777daimon says:

    the market action is very doubtful …and when in doubt, stay out! So, I’m out!

    • ewtoriginal says:

      Why would you leave a super bullish market you love so dearly ?Its merely a little sell off not a major market top.It’s only the beginning of round 8.

      • 777daimon says:

        Because it’s just lovely to let others risk their capital in a heroic way by shorting in an outstanding bullish market.
        I’m in cash and wait to end this shorting mummery in order to come back to the usual, natural, path : UP!
        It’s great to pick the pieces at the right levels when others do the dirty job 🙂 …..
        Keep shorting, it’s just great for me!

  30. budfox9450 says:

    Good Morning….my SP500 index BoYu
    indicator, is currently on a Sell signal in the
    daily, and a Sell Mode in the SP weekly.
    The Monthly SP remains Bullish….Bud

  31. torehund says:

    US has feeble growth but still growth, and that should funnel funds into the USD, as the rest of the world is hovering around zero GDP. And that will eventually create higher rates as the USD will be more expensive due to demand.
    In such a scenario, and if Europe and China just all of a sudden don’t turn 90 degrees, it will be bad news for Gold. A bearish cross on the weekly isn’t something that should be taken easily, and at least given the above, and the emerging interest in the public to scoop up the undervalued miners, that story sells, and thats why it just might be wrong to look at gold now.
    Looking at DUST today it might just be 3rd of 3 rd starting and if US over performs the rest of the world it could spike from 40 usd to 160 usd and that “in a rush”, not saying it will, but it might do so….
    Interesting times, and commodity producers in the Eurozone will benefit from rising dollar as they gauge their earnings in euros , Pounds/Crowns etc. So their accounting will look much better should the dollar soar, as long as the commodity price stays flat. I invested in a Norwegian silane gas play that started to run today…20 percent profit margin( just all of a sudden) would mean a lot for producers that are now producing at cost price.
    lets see !

  32. blackjak100 says:

    Let’s not forget the DOW was rejected at it’s long term trendline from 1999 near 16150 1-2 weeks ago. Kudos to Bouraq for the chart a few weeks back.

    Let’s not forget this move from 2009 still counts best IMO as one gigantic ZZ. I know this is an OEW site, but EW wise it has the right look. Primary A nearly equals Primary C in price and time is identical (Primary C lasted 3 days longer). It can also be counted well as a Double ZZ.

    I would need to see to break below 1746 to reassure this count is still probable. I realize Tony said an all time high has never been made with a cycle B wave. Regardless of that, this count has not been invalidated in any way.

    • ewtoriginal says:

      I agree blackjak with that count. Many facets of this market have the feel of a B wave and the impetus of massive CB money is a prime factor. And even if Tony is correct that no major top has been hit in a B, there is also a possibility that this is a D is a huge ascending triangle. One of the things I appreciate most about Tonys work is his flexibility to recognize other scenarios. Recent posters have blasted him for adjusting a count. That’s just a lack of comprehension on their part of what this work is about.It remains a combination of art and science. Thanks Tony.

  33. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony. I think gold may have bottomed last week and is beginning a new uptrend. If gold can break above ~$1300 that should be confirmation. In the meantime, the dollar may be beginning a significant downtrend. Should know more after FOMC day. Finally, the bull/bear spread is at ~44%!!! What does that mean?…

    • tony caldaro says:

      44% more bulls than bears … sentiment is very bullish

    • mcmasoniam says:

      “…In the meantime, the dollar may be beginning a significant downtrend…”

      Music to my ears! Although I don’t think USD is starting a downtrend, I do believe it’s in the middle of one, and should get hurried along. Considering the ugly 1st time claims this morning, and stocks selling off, allegedly due to “taper fears”, I think QE continues. GL! M

      Done posting. (Will be churning butter in a minute, the old-fashioned way. Tired just thinking about it.)

      • 16golfer says:

        Have you gone all country on us Mason 🙂 …I’ve churned some butter in my time too. Wouldn’t hurt current generation to learn the art of living off the land. Take away Iphone first, then all the modern conveniences 🙂

  34. Cliff Uzan says:

    Hi Tony,
    Why are people saying this market is not overvalued. IMHO This market is extremely overvalued. Many stocks in the Dow and S&P 500 appear very vulnerable. S&P at pe of 21 and div yeild of 2% in the face potentially higher interest rates and an economy that is weaker than what meets the eye. Everything (i.e. stocks, housing…) appears to be super sensitive to interest rates because of the high valuations and huge run ups in stocks.
    If real growth is historically around 2% and we are now supposedly at 3.5% growth then that means the federal reserve, by definition, has room to raise short term rates. This opens the door to a variety of ways the fed could tighten including raising the federal funds rate. Until now the stock market has discounted the current situation of 3.25% to 3.5% real growth. However, this is what the federal reserve has been waiting for, a chance to return to a more normal interest rate. Real growth of 3.25 to 3.5 implies a federal funds rate of 1.25% to 1.5% or 4 to 5 times the current .25%. Why put money at risk when you could pull out now and get 1.5% on your money than a 2% yield on the S&P. Just food for thought.

    • tony caldaro says:

      The people that say the market is not overvalued are comparing it to the 2000 bubble.
      Any time the US stock market is larger than the GDP, which is rare, it is overvalued.
      There is relatively no chance of the FED raising rates for years. No reason to.
      3+% growth with less than 2% inflation is not what one would consider an overheated economy.

      • Cliff Uzan says:

        Hi again Tony,
        Yes. You are correct. When you account for inflation the real growth is less that 2%. Nevertheless, based on the unemployment numbers, tighten bond purchases will reducely liquidity and cause a similar reaction in stock prices. Albeit, not as sharp, as a rise in the fed funds rate but being that prices are near peaks this is a less than perfect situation for a picture perfect priced to perfection bull market.

      • valunvstr says:

        “Gross domestic product (GDP) is the market value of all officially recognized final goods and services produced within a country in a year, or other given period of time.”

        S&P 500 now gets more than 50% of revenues from overseas. Therefore the market cap of the market is now largely are result of overseas business rather than domestic. A great example of why valuation metrics are largely useless in forward forecasting of returns.

        • tony caldaro says:

          True, but are those goods and services produced in the US or overseas?
          In most cases they are not produced here. We have a constant trade deficit, not surplus.

      • valunvstr says:

        I am not sure I agree with where they are made. I can’t find much that is made in the USA anymore. Also, even if much is still made in the USA, it is still a MUCH smaller percentage than it used to be which means the valuation metric should be adjusted for the new reality. Just a profit margins should. By the way, Profit Margins, when looked at alone, have an R2 of ZERO forecasting the next ten years. So for those that listen to Grantham or Hussman, they a spewing nonsense about profit margins. That comes from a Vanguard study the ripped into returns for decades looking at different valuation metrics as a guide to prediction forward returns. Thought some on the board might be interested in that factoid.

  35. Definitely weak tone today. As you said next 2 days going to be important. Thanks for the update.

  36. Thanks for the update Tony! Been on the road with dismal coverage and internet access. Reviewing the charts, NYA did make a lower low compared to last week’ low and for all indices the daily MACD looks as dismal as my wifi coverage today…

    My daily SSTO indicator gave a sell signal and the weekly is now also on sell… Suggesting more downside.

    Albeit my, IMHO, well-argued thesis of this past weekend that 1813.55 was only iii of Major 5, and 1779 was iv; I am now much more inclined to see 1813.55 as PIII since 1779-1811 was a clear abc. Unless the market makes new highs. But, the technicals are not in its favor to do that IMHO. We’ll sure get a bounce tomorrow, but how much!? Hard to say.

    Big names like SBUX, F, CMCSA, DAL, NFLX, AMZN, GOOG, AAPL all look ugly and all got a sell signal on my daily SSTOs. Not good for overall market health short to intermediate term IMHO

    So I’ve turned bearish again, got whipsawed but that happens now and then. Can’t win them all.

      • Thanks Tony! It’s crazy how depend we’ve become on “connectivity”… Of course a lot more downside is needed -as you mentioned- to confirm III and IV. An intermediate iv or ii down to 1750 area wouldn’t invalidate anything at all…

        What I am thinking may likely occur is a move down to the 50d SMA now at 1658 and ascending. Either a bounce or new ATHs. If we assume a 1813-1779 (34p), b to 1811, then c maybe 1.618xa = 1756. Some undershoot of the 50d SMA is (often) not unlikely before a decent launch.

        Assuming the IV case, then say 1756 may be major a. Major b is say to retrace 50%; back to mid 1780s; strong S/R area… Then, assuming major c = 1.618x major a, would get the SPX to 1690s.

        That would confirm III and IV and probably hit the 200d SMA which is now at 1661 and rising. By the time major c of IV is possibly done the 200d SMA should be in the 1690-1700 area I’d logically assume.
        Also, the 200d SMA hasn’t been back tested for over a year… Kinda time it is. 1690-1700 is also very heavy S/R.

        Again, this is just a possible hypothesis. It be interesting to see if it came true !? Fun with fibs and SMA makes sense (as usual! 😉 )

    • I believe Tony’s thesis was that 1813.55 was the peak for Int I of an extending Major 5, not an Int 3. I believe his alternate idea was that 1813.55 was the top of Major 5, also terminating Primary 3. If this correction holds at 1775-1779, it could turn out to be an Int 2 of Major 5 of Primary 3 low, with the downside action characterized by the A-B-C we have been observing. This would confirm Tony’s first alternative.

  37. Jennifer says:

    Thanks Tony!

    U.S. stocks down on Fed tapering concerns:

  38. bouraq says:

    Russell2k breaking the trap

  39. Caldaro I give you kudos in your response about confirming a PRI IV. way to early and in this market can lead people up shits creek without a paddle. One of my very dear friends a true Elliot practictioner claimed today that the big bear is coming. He has been wrong before but who knows

    • mcmasoniam says:

      “…way to early and in this market can lead people up shits creek without a paddle.”

      LOL! It’s tough to be pio, isn’t it? GL ttt, pio or not. M

  40. pcskier says:

    I am all out bearish, but until indu 15791 is taken out to the down side, I am open this could be a bear trap. That being said when 15791 is taken out, their is going to be a mad rush to the exit this market.

    • pcskier says:

      I forgot the back tested part after its taken out, when the back test fails like indu 16025 failed, heavy selling will occur.

    • valunvstr says:

      Let everyone know when you get back in. Since you will wait for lower prices that won’t come, it will just be good to be on record.

      • pcskier says:

        I’ve been short since 15 mins after 1814. I time stamped my call here. I am in the 1814 is it camp, primary 5 will fail to reach new highs. I called the 16025 bounce the day before the bounce. I follow tony because he is meticulous in the timing of his calls, he doesn’t rush, waits for confirmation.

      • mcmasoniam says:

        Correct vvstr, at least for The Holidays. QE will continue w/NO taper. This pullback (not correction yet) will draw lots of ordinary folks from sidelines into stock mkt mut funds and money will be placed starting later next week through beginning of Jan. Depending upon earnings, that might be all before an even harder pullback.

      • 16golfer says:

        We might just all be in for a surprise. I’m leaning down for end of year.

      • pcskier says:

        i have a confession in my egotistical rant i lied, i was short before spx 1814. I feel a weight lifted. Honesty is the best policy.

      • 777daimon says:

        @ pcskier:
        yes, indeed, honesty is the best policy.
        this down wave allows a lot of late bears to be free.
        call it the “Christmas gift” 🙂

  41. radrian6 says:

    Hello all,
    The RUT broke below rising wedge support today which enables a downside target equal to the height of the wedge from the point of the break. Measuring the wedge is subjective but it appears to be about 70 points. The break occurred near 1122 so the resulting downside target is near 1050. I must state that I am not making a market call or recommending a short — this is just a technical observation.

    RUT has reached the target area for a simple a-b-c correction so there is a decent probability of a bounce from 1100. If RUT bounces, watch the reaction at the key resistance levels of 1111.63 and 1119. If RUT has bottomed, the 38% Fib retracement is 1118; the 50% Fib retracement is 1123; the 61.8% Fib retracement is 1129. If RUT bounces then rolls over decisively from one of the levels mentioned above, then I would expect there is a larger corrective pattern underway.

    However, the simple a-b-c may continue to take RUT lower before bouncing. In this case, watch the daily lower Bollinger Band near 1096 and the channel support trend line near 1095.

    My 15-min chart shows some potential +div but my 60-min chart does not — both of these intraday charts are oversold. Another observation is that RUT has formed a downward channel on the 60-min chart and is at the bottom of that channel. Finally, RUT has closed lower in six of the past eight sessions and looks very similar to November 7.

    With the Volcker Rule in place, the equity markets may have turned a corner but I must agree with Tony that the next few days will be important for the short and intermediate terms.

    • pooch77 says:

      Thanks Radrian6, putting my money on 1095 as the low. To much seasonality to see 1050 I believe. I know vaulations are rich but I suspect a nice 5% rally into early January than a much bigger pullback around 10%…good luck to all of us

    • pooch77 says:

      Gotta luv those 3-4 points ramps 3 minutes to close,guess bears are cashing in…all for me goodnight people

      • radrian6 says:

        Cheers, Pooch. Yes … RUT could bottom near 1095 and pop back as it did in early November. It is also possible that any bounce will be sold and the RUT continues lower. Options expiration may have some influence over the next week or so. By the way, the 1050 target only relates to the broken wedge — if the RUT slips into a serious correction, it probably won’t stop until it hits 1000-950.

    • RDC says:

      Thanks Radrian. Nice analysis.

  42. nyjsec314 says:

    looks like we are just a hair above the neckline on a 60m head and shoulders.

  43. Tony

    If we break 1780 has the correction begun and Primary wave IV begun ? What is the target for IV (lets say IF it has begun?)

    Thank you

    • tony caldaro says:

      Think you have asked me that question, in several different forms, a number of times.
      It would take quite a drop, today was nothing, to confirm a Primary IV

    • valunvstr says:

      1747ish is all you will get. It will take out the 50 day so all the technicians will be crying bloody murder and it will satisfy the HandS top that is forming. No big deal. As of right now, likely contained to a shallow correction.

      • waddaguess says:

        I tend to agree. 5% from 1813 probably middle of next week. However, if the rally to follow does not make a new high. Then it gets interesting. Thanks Tony.

  44. RDC says:

    Tony, Thank you very much.

  45. uncle10 says:

    Thanks Tony. Funny listening to Bob try to explain why the market was down today. lol

    • tony caldaro says:

      Someone mentioned to me today.
      With the Volcker Act now passed, banks can’t use Bond proceeds to run up equities anymore.

      • Though I am short at the moment, a positive close in the upper half of tomorrow’s range would get my attention. I read an interesting piece y Mark Hulbert yesterday where he pointed out that in constant dollar terms, the Dow at its recent all time nominal high was basically right where it was at its 1999 and 2007 highs when adjusted for inflation. I wish he had chosen a less sensational-sounding title for this essay, but it is worth a peak-a-boo. I will also say that I have not checked his math, so I refuse to be held accountable for any errors he made. Or that I made, for that matter. It’s all Lee’s fault 🙂

        The more things change, the more things remain the same. Each time they tell me its different, and yet it always feels like a re-run.

        Good stuff from you Tony, as always!

      • If that turns out to be the case…….. That could be a big driver

      • Sorry…..I was not clear.

        If the Volcker Act does indeed do as Tony has possibly indicated —- that could represent a large shift in the demand dynamic.

      • kjb0 says:

        Banks have until July 21, 2015 to comply with the new rules. I expect a bottom in October 2015 and bounce around a while.

      • Volcker act not in effect until July 2015… Plenty of time for the banks to make profits and hire the best lawyers to battle it out in court for further revisions… 😉

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