SHORT TERM: GDP stronger than expected, DOW -68
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.7%. US index futures were modestly higher overnight until 8:30. It was then that Q3 GDP was reported higher: +3.6% v +2.8%, and weekly Jobless claims fell to their lowest level in six years: 298k v 316k. The market opened four points below yesterday’s SPX 1793 close. Then it dipped to SPX 1786 before bouncing to 1792 just past 10am. At 10am Factory orders were reported lower: -0.9% v +1.7%. By 11am the market had pulled back to SPX 1785. Then after a bounce to SPX 1991 the market started to pullback again. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1783 at 3pm, bounced to 1788 by 3:30, then closed at 1785.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.15%. Bonds lost 9 ticks, Crude gained 15 cents, Gold dropped $16, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1779 and 1699 pivots, with resistance at the 1828 and 1841 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly Payrolls at 8:30, along with Personal income/spending and the PCE. Then at 10am Consumer sentiment, followed by Consumer credit 3pm.
The market nearly gapped down again this AM but opened one point short of an official gap opening. A few minutes after the open the market found a low at SPX 1786, and then attempted to rally. Like it has for the past five trading days. The high for the day occurred shortly thereafter at SPX 1792. Then the recent customary pullback began. Today, however, the pullback found support around ES S1 instead of dropping down to S2. Despite the jovial spirit of the holiday season, the DOW is displaying every indication that it is in a downtrend. This would suggest its recent high was the end of Major 5/Primary III, or just Int. one of Major 5. Should the Trifurcation finally get resolved the SPX/NDX/NAZ should follow shortly.
Short term support remains at the 1779 pivot and SPX 1746, with resistance at SPX 1810, SPX 1818 and the 1828 pivot. Short term momentum remained just below neutral for most of the day. The short term OEW charts remain negative with the reversal level now SPX 1794. Best to your Friday trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend weakening
LONG TERM: bull market