thanksgiving update

SHORT TERM: US markets closed, YM +42

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures closed higher with ES +4 and NQ +15. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude slipped 10 cents, Gold gained $6, and the USD was lower. Thus far it looks like a record high opening on Friday. But this is subject to change with the Thursday overnight session.

After reviewing the characteristics of this bull market, this market appears to be reaching an inflection point. Fifth waves, as you are aware, have been relatively weak during this bull market. This particular fifth wave, Major wave 5, is currently reaching the level of maximum length for a non-subdivided wave. Should it continue to rise another 1% to 2% the probability arises for an extension of Major 5. This would imply Intermediate wave divisions/trend changes, like we experienced during Major waves 1 and 3. And, that would suggest this current uptrend is only Intermediate wave one of Major 5. More on this in the weekend report. Enjoy the holiday!


MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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54 Responses to thanksgiving update

  1. Ryan Parker says:

    Fairly decent volume for a 1/2 day after Thanksgiving.

  2. torehund says:

    Lazy AND uberbullish market, looks healthy..

  3. radrian6 says:

    Hello all,
    RUT cup-with-handle target is 1167 but I have some other indications that RUT may reach exhaustion near 1158 or lower. Either way, the cycle that has repeatedly played out this year is rally, sideways, and drop to lower Bollinger Band — the only variable has been the time to complete the cycle. RUT completed the last cycle in 21 trading days — if that repeats, we would see a test of support at December expiration. However, slow holiday trading may add time to the cycle.

    My monthly chart shows RUT has reached a level of exhaustion only seen on two other occasions in the past 10 years: January 2004 and April 2010 — prior to those readings, you’d have to go back to September 1997. The April 2010 reading lead to a serious correction starting in May whereas the 2004 and 1997 readings lead to lengthy consolidations prior to new highs. Based on this history and the resulting price action, RUT may be able to add some gains over the next month but should begin consolidating and/or correcting thereafter. With the seasonal bullishness, January 2014 may be more likely for a directional change but we will just have to wait and see.

  4. Thanks Tony, this might have been mentioned, but IF 1813 is the target (was mine) then 1750-1775 (closer to 1775) I will be loading up for a target of 1870 ish…. Though I HOPE we keep going higher and higher until Week of Dec 20th with the Fed and housing numbers coming back…

    Have a great weekend Tony, and all…

    Hope you enjoyed the Thanksgiving Holiday..

  5. pcskier says:

    I will play the ego game and call a top at 1813.55.

    • buddyglove says:

      pcskier…If you are “The One” who actually calls this top after so many have fallen before you, then you will be worshiped by chartists and traders from around the world, and be hailed as the new messiah.🙂

      • pooch77 says:

        Will break 1816 by Monday if not today.

      • ISINCODE says:

        Wow Buddy! If you put it that way I guess I have to put my hat in the ring and call 1813.55 as the top also. Sorry pcskier, you will have to share the fame with me. But hey, there will be enough to go around for the both of us. I better get started on my new website !!

        Question? If I miss will this be considered a mulligan since it is my first call?

        lol..have a good weekend all

    • pcskier I hope your right. But is it a gut feeling. I am sure very hard pressed to find a reason to go down.

  6. mcmasoniam says:

    I lied, not last post. Meant to include this reminder: Dec. 28 is last day of 99-week UI. Black duck or swan, think this might be a bit of a tussle. Gone now! LOL! M

  7. kloutt says:

    peter ghostine predicted a TGT on the RUT of 1150 off the 1095 lows….todays high so far is 1146.88 ….not too shabby!

    got short at the high and holding on for dear life !!!!

    bear party hats ON !!!!!

    • mcmasoniam says:

      I have a small short position on today also. Not sure how long I want to keep it open, but would hardly put a party hat on, yet.

      Last post. GL to you and everyone else.

  8. Caldaro you mentioned market maybe at an inflection point? what would that inflection point be sir? just curious. At this rate today we will be up 200 points on the DOW.

  9. pcskier says:

    With what is going on with Japan and china I am surprise that the market is up. If a plane or two get shot down over the week end. Monday morning would be ugly. The $vix is up above it 20 DMA but the past few times it touches its 20 WMA it collapses. I think china is a pressure cooker of anger directed at Japan. But the market so far thinks it is a non event, maybe that will change in final 30 minutes of trading today.

  10. mcmasoniam says:

    Decided to take out a contract at the last minute here. Doing well, thus far.
    Not to start an argument, but noticed that uvxy is taking off upward. This tells me traders expecting pullback soon & getting in place for it. (Doesn’t mean it will happen, okay…) GL All! M

  11. The key now is to ignore all the top callers and bubble callers.Just like anybody recent they will be wrong. My technical indicators of course say we are overbought. I see many neg divergences as do many. But this is a market where what I went by in the past mean nothing.

  12. pooch77 says:

    Not to sound like broken record but looking at rut2 daily chart we could move up steadly all of next week before pullback..

  13. Caldaro I agree with your post below. the largest correction is off the table for sure as is any correction. There is no reason for this market to go down and even when a reason arises it does little. We may not see a down day in the month of december.

  14. 777daimon says:

    I’ve got one single number for the number crunchers out there!
    16661 on DJIA straight to the point!
    When we get there, that point might be the real deal expected by all …

  15. Ryan Parker says:

    FWIW someone I know that isn’t a very sophisticated investor that wanted nothing to do with stocks and wanted to buy precious metals fearing hyperinflation in September 2012 just jumped into the market with both feet in the last week. Take that as you wish.

  16. torehund says:

    It seems to be all about shipping today.

  17. buddyglove says:

    What a “Real” bubble looks like.
    A Bitcoin digital code block is now worth an ounce of gold.

  18. Thanks Tony. if it is only intermediate wave 1 of Major 5 then that is going to be interesting.
    I really like your adoptive nature and projecting accordingly rather than arguing with the market.

    Happy Thanksgiving day also Happy Hanukkah.

  19. 5wavemodel says:

    Happy Thanksgiving Tony, and to everyone. Be safe.

  20. mharrison60 says:

    Thanks for taking time out for the update.

    A couple of asks:
    – Is the largest correction of this year likely off the table?
    – Also would be great to have an update on the European markets when you have time.

    All the best for your celebrations

    • tony caldaro says:

      Market keeps grinding higher.
      Retail holiday sales up 11% this year already.
      The FED continues to buy bonds.
      May be so.
      After the holidays hope to review everything.

  21. mcmasoniam says:

    What a day; I’m pooped! Yet grateful. Happy TBird. Wanted to post this before I snooze. Very much in Tony’s timing court.


    • jmoptions says:

      Data on this article is more than 1 month old, should be even more extreme now. Read through some of their comments, lots of them believe market cannot possibly go down, especially with the Fed at their back. Thus it is different this time. Lots of folks sitting heavy on the right side of the boat.

    • torehund says:

      He has made lots of good points, however some stocks have done nothing but decline since year 2000, so it isn’t so strange that some of them pops. That the large caps are somewhat stagnant is just a sign that they are fully priced but some of them are still cheap even if economy just holds itself flat.
      I continue my bagger hunt and see several cases with good near term prospects. I may load up with more shipping, as I think this spring time joy in this sector could mold into something more substantial in the following weeks. The Elephant in the room IS China, so good profits should maybe be booked on a regular basis, until China has bottomed out (if it has not done so).

  22. bouraq says:

    Happy holidays to you all from UK.
    Russell2k is the leader again:

  23. buddyglove says:

    Thanks Tony. I’m no wave expert, but the suggested implication that this current uptrend is only Intermediate wave one of Major 5 would mean much higher Bull mkt targets….Ha…Those media talking heads who talk loud about “bubbles” aint seen nuthin’ yet. 🙂

  24. jmoptions says:

    Is it possible, we are still in Major 3, either int. 5 or still int.3 still?

    Happy Thanksgiving Day to you.

  25. torehund says:

    Happy thanksgiving to all of you.

  26. RDC says:

    Tony, Thank you and Happy Thanksgiving.

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