thanksgiving update

SHORT TERM: US markets closed, YM +42

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures closed higher with ES +4 and NQ +15. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude slipped 10 cents, Gold gained $6, and the USD was lower. Thus far it looks like a record high opening on Friday. But this is subject to change with the Thursday overnight session.

After reviewing the characteristics of this bull market, this market appears to be reaching an inflection point. Fifth waves, as you are aware, have been relatively weak during this bull market. This particular fifth wave, Major wave 5, is currently reaching the level of maximum length for a non-subdivided wave. Should it continue to rise another 1% to 2% the probability arises for an extension of Major 5. This would imply Intermediate wave divisions/trend changes, like we experienced during Major waves 1 and 3. And, that would suggest this current uptrend is only Intermediate wave one of Major 5. More on this in the weekend report. Enjoy the holiday!


MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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54 Responses to thanksgiving update

  1. Ryan Parker says:

    Fairly decent volume for a 1/2 day after Thanksgiving.


  2. torehund says:

    Lazy AND uberbullish market, looks healthy..


  3. radrian6 says:

    Hello all,
    RUT cup-with-handle target is 1167 but I have some other indications that RUT may reach exhaustion near 1158 or lower. Either way, the cycle that has repeatedly played out this year is rally, sideways, and drop to lower Bollinger Band — the only variable has been the time to complete the cycle. RUT completed the last cycle in 21 trading days — if that repeats, we would see a test of support at December expiration. However, slow holiday trading may add time to the cycle.

    My monthly chart shows RUT has reached a level of exhaustion only seen on two other occasions in the past 10 years: January 2004 and April 2010 — prior to those readings, you’d have to go back to September 1997. The April 2010 reading lead to a serious correction starting in May whereas the 2004 and 1997 readings lead to lengthy consolidations prior to new highs. Based on this history and the resulting price action, RUT may be able to add some gains over the next month but should begin consolidating and/or correcting thereafter. With the seasonal bullishness, January 2014 may be more likely for a directional change but we will just have to wait and see.


  4. Thanks Tony, this might have been mentioned, but IF 1813 is the target (was mine) then 1750-1775 (closer to 1775) I will be loading up for a target of 1870 ish…. Though I HOPE we keep going higher and higher until Week of Dec 20th with the Fed and housing numbers coming back…

    Have a great weekend Tony, and all…

    Hope you enjoyed the Thanksgiving Holiday..


  5. pcskier says:

    I will play the ego game and call a top at 1813.55.


    • buddyglove says:

      pcskier…If you are “The One” who actually calls this top after so many have fallen before you, then you will be worshiped by chartists and traders from around the world, and be hailed as the new messiah. 🙂


      • pooch77 says:

        Will break 1816 by Monday if not today.


      • ISINCODE says:

        Wow Buddy! If you put it that way I guess I have to put my hat in the ring and call 1813.55 as the top also. Sorry pcskier, you will have to share the fame with me. But hey, there will be enough to go around for the both of us. I better get started on my new website !!

        Question? If I miss will this be considered a mulligan since it is my first call?

        lol..have a good weekend all


    • pcskier I hope your right. But is it a gut feeling. I am sure very hard pressed to find a reason to go down.


  6. mcmasoniam says:

    I lied, not last post. Meant to include this reminder: Dec. 28 is last day of 99-week UI. Black duck or swan, think this might be a bit of a tussle. Gone now! LOL! M


  7. kloutt says:

    peter ghostine predicted a TGT on the RUT of 1150 off the 1095 lows….todays high so far is 1146.88 ….not too shabby!

    got short at the high and holding on for dear life !!!!

    bear party hats ON !!!!!


    • mcmasoniam says:

      I have a small short position on today also. Not sure how long I want to keep it open, but would hardly put a party hat on, yet.

      Last post. GL to you and everyone else.


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