wednesday update

SHORT TERM: another quiet trading day, DOW +25

Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 316k v 323k, but Durable goods orders were reported lower: -2.0% v +3.8%. The market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 1803 close, then continued higher until it hit 1808 by 10am. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported lower: 63.0 v 65.9, but Consumer sentiment was reported higher near 10am: 75.1 v 72.0. The market then traded in a two point range until 11am and started to pullback. Around 1:30 the SPX hit 1803. Then the market drifted back to SPX 1808 just before an 1807 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.70%. Bonds lost 11 ticks, Crude dropped $1.30, Gold slipped $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1779 and 1699 pivots, with resistance at the 1828 and 1841 pivots. Tomorrow is the Thanksgiving holiday in the US.

The market opened higher today, hit the SPX 1808 high for the third day in a row, then backed off. The three trading days this week surprisingly display similar ranges: Mon: 1801-1808, Tues: 1801-1808, Wed: 1803-1808. Normally this would suggest a top or a 4th wave triangle is forming. The market has not traded in such a narrow range for quite some time. Also of note, there has not been a notable price reversal since last Wednesday. This is quite unusual for this, or any, market sitting at all time highs. Is tax selling and new buying keeping the balance.

Short term support is at the 1779 pivot and SPX 1746, with resistance at SPX 1804-1810, SPX 1818 and the 1828 pivot. Short term momentum continues to display a negative divergence. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1802. Happy Thanksgiving to one and all!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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35 Responses to wednesday update

  1. I still think the “minor v” from 1773+ in S&P 500 is not over. A final extension to 1818 – 1823 is still possible unless the move from 1802.82 (18:21 BST) to 1808.27 produced a failure. The 1800 is the first break point I believe.

    Happy Thanksgiving!

  2. pooch77 says:

    Should see top around Tuesday after tomorrows ramp and Mondays 1st of month buying hopefully a pullback starts Tuesday. Going accordingly to plan ::))))

  3. torehund says:

    Shipping is doing nicely in Norway today, also an iron ore company is starting (what I believe is a retracement rally). Well, bear market rallies are as good as they get….

  4. elmer510 says:

    Futures tell there could be a gap up to ATH both for SPX and DOW. In case this could not be a 4th wave diagonal when its climbing upwards?

    So perhaps it’s the end of minor 5 according to Tony’s analysis.

    I had some problems with IM 4 of major 5 in Tony’s charts. It looks very shallow beinhg an IM.
    So there’s a possibilty SPX is still in major 5 according to my eyes. But as I wrote before, Im not experienced in such judgements.

    But in a bigger perspective, its seems we’re all wating for rather large correction to occur in december,

  5. 777daimon says:

    Nasdaq is the leader ….. SPX 500 and DOW are laggers.
    take a look at Nasdaq …. is it shortable?
    In my opinion – NO!
    it has the very signature of a 3rd wave …
    but if you are so eager to short, than …short!🙂
    Nobody can stop you when you want to have fun with some money :)) ….
    Shorting in such a bullish period , when SPX clearly is riding the upper BB on multiple timeframes is a killing behaviour…but…who am I to explain such basic things?!?!?!?
    On spx 500 now it’s a bullish flag preparing (best viewed on 4h chart) – target: 1830-1835.
    Once again: I’m not saying that a HUUUUUUGE correction will start at 1830-1835 …further bullish formations await there!
    It’s november-december – the most bullish period of the year and you’re thinking only at shorting!
    For God’s sake!

    • torehund says:

      ..agree NAS is a major 3 from bottom in 09.

    • buddyglove says:

      +1 for bullishness, but -1 for “losing it” at the end.

      • 777daimon says:

        ”but -1 for “losing it” at the end.”
        at 1830-1835 some wise guys have to load another truckload of shorts in order to make another jump higher to 1935-1960 conservative target.
        The wild bullish target is at over 2050+ points on SPX 500.
        so…step by step to the real target!🙂

    • Has anyone seen a chart from 1929 compared to today. There is one on the mcveery site. Very similar in price and time frame. Straight up thru mid January. Then a pull back, then up again, but no new highs, then kaboom. Drops 50 percent in April. Could mean primary 4 doesn’t happen until January, then primary 4 and then a failed primary 5. Which means the bulls could run this up another 15 percent in the next 45 days. Should be fun to watch this all play out.

      Happy turkey day all

  6. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony. Based on the latest Advisors Sentiment readings the bull/bear spread is at ~41%. That’s an historically high level and around the same level as when the market corrected in April 2011. And greater than when other market “tops” have occurred. What does that mean? Happy Thanksgiving all.

  7. Happy Thanksgiving Tony and all the followers of this blog. Have a nice weekend.

  8. Jennifer says:

    Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!

    Dow and S&P 500 closed at record highs, NASDAQ boosted by Apple:

  9. bouraq says:

    Bulls still raging:

  10. rabbittrader1 says:

    Happy Thanksgiving Tony! I shorted the S&P index today in my stock account ,and bought Bear ETF SPXS for my stock account .L.ooks like we will not see 1817 on the s&P now. Looking for 4.6% to 5 %correction in the S&P now into Dec. 12th. IMVHO. Bought Gold ETF NUGT today as Gold should rise in next two weeks. Best to all ,Rabbit. My matching of historical economic cycles and pattern recognition and of Course Elliot wave tells me this. Fibonnaci .618 in gold today and buying of gold stocks today,even though gold price was down,says gold up for next couple weeks. China may be a fundamental factor and next two weeks fight over the debt ceiling and funding the Government also fit in with Elliot Wave. HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL!! .RABBIT

    • ewtoriginal says:

      Howard Marks of Oakmark joins the Voices of the Absurd thinking that again ” we’re seeing another upswing in risky behavior.”Marks warns, “when people start to posit that fundamentals don’t matter and momentum will carry the day, it’s an omen we must heed,” adding that “the riskiest thing in the investment world is the belief that there’s no risk.”
      How ridiculous.Oscar said higher.Much higher.
      1828 is a lock.i will flatten then like everyone else.

  11. Caldaro I would lean the 4th wave triangle we all know there is no top . 1850 by year end straight up. Brilliance by the FED.

  12. elmer510 says:

    Thanks for the update, Tony?

    You write about the narrow movemant at SPX:
    “Normally this would suggest a top or a 4th wave triangle is forming. ”

    Will this mean SPX still is in minor 4 and not minor 5, or is this 4th wave triangle a part of minor 5, like minute 4?

  13. radrian6 says:

    Hello and happy Thanksgiving,
    I don’t know what’s holding back the SPX — RUT is screaming higher. However, RUT has reached the point where it is likely to start consolidating sideways — this is familiar territory on my daily charts. I was thinking 1145 could be the cycle top and here we are at 1141.30. I am seeing stretched technical conditions in all timeframes from monthly to hourly so I would not be surprised to see RUT enter an extended period of consolidation after finishing this cycle.

  14. thanks tony! Happy Thanksgiving y’all and remember Black Friday markets are only open till 1pm!!

  15. themoose101 says:

    Have a wonderful Thanksgiving Tony!

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