tuesday update

SHORT TERM: another quiet trading session, DOW unchanged

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.5%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.4%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight. At 8:30 Building permits were reported higher: 1034K v 974K v 918K: housing remains positive. At 9am Case-Shiller was reported higher: +13.3% v +12.8%, and the FHFA was reported higher: +0.3% v +0.3%. The market opened higher at SPX 1804, edged up to 1805, then pulled back to 1801 by 10am. At 10am Consumer confidence was reported lower: 70.4 v 71.2. The market then started to work its way higher. Around 2pm the SPX hit 1808, went sideways for a while, and then dipped into a 1803 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were flat, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.55%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude slipped 20 cents, Gold slid $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1779 and 1699 pivots, with resistance at the 1828 and 1841 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims and Durable goods orders at 8:30, the Chicago PMI at 9:45, then Consumer sentiment and Leading indicators at 10am.

The market opened higher today, pulled back, then retested monday’s all time high at SPX 1808. The first two trading days of this holiday week suggests we have a market that does not appear interested in going much higher yet. We continue to observe negative divergences on all time frames, which suggests a downturn can also occur at any time. With tomorrow the last full day trading session of the month there may be some end of month buying, with volume likely light.

Short term support remains at the 1779 pivot and SPX 1746, with resistance at SPX 1804-1810, SPX 1818, and the 1828 pivot. Short term momentum created a negative divergence and then declined. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1800. Best to your trading and holiday travels!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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155 Responses to tuesday update

  1. torehund says:

    BDI up 9 percent….pedal to the metal or something wild happening.

  2. bobhopium says:

    Hi all…Maybe of use to some :-
    Clearly looking good for the bulls again but the small sideways correction looks incomplete. I would like to see a flush down to 1799(but not necessary) before the rally continues and breaks up thru the larger running triangle…GL to us all
    Spoos-ES hourly

    • bobhopium says:

      Dow similar with standard rectangle consolidation, no signs of a top imho.
      Lots of shorts at that resistance imho, so Dow should be good for a fast 150+ points… GL to us all

  3. radrian6 says:

    Hello all,
    The December POMO schedule is posted. For next week, Tuesday, Wednesday, and particularly Friday are heavy days. December 19, the last trading day for December index options, is also very heavy — can’t have the market going lower at expiration. With RUT screaming to new highs every moment and all that freshly printed money coming in, it’s difficult to even imagine a correction getting underway.

    SPX still having problems with 1808 but should break through soon — it has to catch up with the RUT. The RUT is not on the same wave count as SPX so it’s tough to make comparisons but with the RUT leading again, risk appetite is still in force so there should be higher prices to come. RUT is making its second close above the daily upper Bollinger Band so despite all the money coming into the market, RUT should consolidate soon.

  4. fishonhook says:

    lots of bull ETF’s in ending diagonal and lots of bear ETFs in falling wedges. Except they won’t break up or down, just wiggling to the end of the triangle. If they break near the apex, i think the validity of the move is limited. This Fed market has defeated most of the technicians and ellioters on the web.

  5. CB says:

    HappyT’day Tony and all !
    You & your blog are a big reason to be thankful, every day, Tony. Thanks as always! Safe travels to everyone who’s travelling in this weather!

    • hucky2 says:

      Here In Queensland it is sunny & hot, not a cloud in the sky, I’ll be on my way to the beach soon.

      • CB says:

        that’s awesome hucky, we’re jealous now : )

        Lee, Jimi Hendrix’ BDAY today, isn’t it – where is the music? : )

        Thanks for the update, Tony!

        P.S. sorry guys about my typos below…should read: Attorneys and accountants..

  6. GMCR acting strong today. I see it starting a wave 3 off an important bottom. Could run a long way up in the next few weeks. Cheers all and happy Thanksgiving!

  7. waddaguess says:


    Happy T day. Think that 5 is in @ 1808?

  8. Tony

    You think BDI is possible might have wave 3 higher in the near future ? Or any other sectors or stocks which might have wave 3 higher in the near future ?

    I know there is a lot overstreched but as you know always a place….

    Thank you

  9. moo42 says:

    Don’t comment much here, but really appreciate everyone’s contribution. Happy Thanksgiving to all!

  10. last post . Notice the constant bid under this market and refusal to let it turn RED.

  11. torehund says:

    Observation from the crypt: Look at DRYS, how it is extremely reluctant to retrace back the small gap….and it looks a little like a first step, on a yet to become stair, could it lead to heaven ?

    • torehund says:

      I just have to convey to you all, shipping is at major crossroads here and the next days or weeks will be telling. Its the most exciting sector at the time. Not only for the sector itself, but remember that BDI is also a live view into the (u)health of the world economy.
      Oil stabilized latter to the iran deal, one should also observe gold.

  12. radrian6 says:

    Hello all,
    RUT is sustaining itself above the daily upper Bollinger Band but that won’t last — expect some sideways consolidation and an eventual correction to the lower BB. I think RUT has reached or will soon reach the momentum high for this cycle. There is trend line resistance from August that may be the target for this rally — if RUT were to tag that line in the next couple of sessions, it would be about 1145. Currently, the lower BB is near 1081 but once RUT starts moving sideways, it will rise towards price. RUT generally retraces 50 to 61.8% of its rallies so if it tops at 1145, the expected retracement would be down to 1105-1110. If the correction gets serious, it will take out key support near 1095.

    • radrian6 says:

      SPX is encountering resistance at 1808 and has failed to penetrate that area after multiple attempts. I don’t know how that fits into the big picture but its worth monitoring. Unless 1802 gives way, I would consider the SPX intraday pattern to be a flag. If the cash market can’t push through 1808 by Friday, the Sunday futures will likely be manipulated to create a gap opening above 1808 … land of the free, home of the brave.

  13. S Lee W says:

    Hey Tony
    Happy Thanksgiving from the Heartland
    It’s as cold as heck down here !
    Cheers to all

  14. hucky2 says:

    To me SPX appears more likely to gain 8 to 10 points than pull back, despite negative divergences everywhere.

  15. pooch77 says:

    just keep in mind,slow stoch have been above 80 an average of 14 days the last 2 months while price grinds higher,just something for shorts to consider.

  16. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Happy Holiday to All 😉
    SPY ~ Rising Wedge with -div. Upper trend line resistance @ 181.50ish. Always the possibility of HH’s. Still looks bearish IMHO.

  17. pooch77 says:

    Not a top caller as I have learned my lesson but until the 1&2 hour charts have a clean break we could be up until XMAS.Other than being O.B cant see negatives for Dec.,seasonality,gas down,QE,holidays….

  18. valunvstr says:

    More bubble articles…isn’t it getting old!!! Tops don’t happen when everyone is calling it a bubble. Everyday, new articles calling this a bubble…ok. Sorry you stayed in cash or were underinvested all this time.


  19. tuamotu says:

    Tony thanks for your work !
    Question: Bitcoin over 1000 $ !!! Do you have a count for this ???
    Is it a tulip bubble ?

    • tony caldaro says:

      happy T-day
      no counts for the bit coin bubble

    • uncle10 says:

      My price target for bitcoin is $10,000. Get ready for the ETF soon.

      • tony caldaro says:

        Think the CFTC will try to regulate this so called currency?
        We all know what happened to Intrade

      • uncle10 says:

        I think they will try. Been reading about bitcoin and other virtual currencies. Very interesting!

      • 7dayyss says:

        In relation to the “cashless society”, I could see it sticking around. Easy for the government to track transactions to get the tax on it. Wasn’t it up because of government officials remarks about it?

        • tony caldaro says:

          If we ever went to a cashless system we would see the biggest surge in real asset prices ever.
          Since the next bull market in commodities is not due for another twenty years … maybe then

      • uncle10 says:

        It will take many years for sure. Given everything is speeding up….. maybe it will only be 10 years from now? maybe less?

      • 7dayyss says:

        Personally, I don’t want to see it, but the government is hard to fight. Sure would be a hard fight though, thats for sure!

      • CB says:

        Tony, I’d think that in a cashless system, money-laundering-driven real-estate transactions would have to diasppear – so it could affect some segments of the real estate market adversely.. legal disclaimer : obvioulsy I know nothing about it .. so worrying unneccesarily here 😆

      • CB says:

        lol..calling all attornesy and acoountants : we need you to donate some time to figure this out ..Cheers Tony!

  20. Happy thanksgiving to all. Always have to be thankful for what we have. Market up again today shocking LOL. Rick Santelli said yesterday FED painted the roulette wheel red and anybody who bets black loses which was great analogy. Have a good one and a special thanks to Caldaro a true EW master and objective enough to know the FED is in control. Keep the count going

  21. bobhopium says:

    Looking for flush down to fut 1797/98, prob early in the day…Gl to us all.

  22. torehund says:

    Drys is up with good volume premarket, thats bull also for its sick sisters too.

  23. pbnj123 says:

    I just wanted to wish you a Happy Thanksgiving.
    I am always lurking in the background.
    Kind and gentle people are far and few between anymore.
    I don’t know how you do it but please never stop.
    Cheers to you and to all who read this today.
    Happy Thanksgiving

  24. 777daimon says:

    only one message for you all : up!

    worry of crashing is the very signature of poverty!

    • 777, Are you buying at these levels?

      • 777daimon says:

        yes, I’m adding.
        would you sell here, in a bull market, knowing that 2100-2200 are on the way in the first part of next year?
        too much are shorting, too much are sidelined …. this is a great sign that this market will go further up!
        if there were a lot that would have claimed levels like 3000-5000-10.000 on SPX , yes that would have been a problem.
        but considering the environment and the TA factors … I just love this market!
        Thrilling everybody! … lol! except the ones that are making money! 🙂

      • mcmasoniam says:

        777, I’m so happy to hear you’re prospering. My 401k is looking better. Not adding right now, but will wait for even a small pullback between now and Christmas. If it doesn’t happen, then, I have cash. Best of luck to you! M

    • alexhartley1 says:

      I don’t think many people here are worried about a crash just yet.

      I believe we’ll rally into thanksgiving. Friday or Monday will turn down (Gann turn) for a quick drop to the 35 or 70 mdas on the S&P. By 6-9th I think we’ll be heading back up to a new high into the end of year.

      January will most likely be more difficult.

    • torehund says:

      Thanks 777 for fighting da bear, you got me convinced.

  25. $SPX $UVXY $AAPL $NUGT $FAS $SPXL, mkt. update for tues. and wed. trades (within blog’s remarks sect.): http://standardpoor.wordpress.com

  26. My last post…….
    Possible counts on BIDU. I am not entering any trade until massive resistance 170 is taken out. If 170 is taken out then it has high probability to go higher unless I am way off in my EW counts,
    Good Luck all of you.

    Weekly – https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3TF4QucRyZ_TkF3M3h0N1ZoSmM/edit?usp=sharing
    Daily – https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3TF4QucRyZ_WG16SWFYWEwxbzQ/edit?usp=sharing

  27. hkloon says:

    Hello all, happy thanksgiving…

    1) What is a Bernanke Put? Sorry for amateur question
    2) How long is the gold bear market gonna be starting from 2011?

  28. Ok wild and wacky question. Anybody playing the bitcoin bubble? My guess is it will eventually be worthless and is a modern day tulip mania, but what an interesting thing to watch play out. Seems like most of the places to buy and sell them are shady and possibly frauds. What a fascinating thing to see. I may buy a very small amount of them and put in an order to sell for 100x profit just in case things go completely insane for a day or something. No idea how to short it back to zero when the bubble pops though. Interestingly enough I see 5 wave moves up and 3 wave corrections, just like in everything else. Anyone trading this?

  29. Another classic wall of worry erected by Tony – ” The first two trading days of this holiday week suggests we have a market that does not appear interested in going much higher yet. We continue to observe negative divergences on all time frames, which suggests a downturn can also occur at any time. ”

    Looks like even though Tony has the medium term market in an uptrend and long term in a bull market, he keeps looking for the start of a sell off that never materializes. Those who are on the sidelines are pissed at this relentless rally and those who are shorting are in pain. Those who are riding this rally are nervous but making money. SPX 1828 pivot will be seen soon.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Just stating what I see.
      Naturally, what everyone does with it is totally up to them.
      I’m only one voice in the wind, and there are hundreds of blogs out there.
      The objective of this blog is: to help others learn to make good decisions on what they see not others.

      • 5wavemodel says:

        More like a voice that rises above the noise imho. And well put.

      • chrisk44342 says:

        TS, if you approach EW as something that provides market context, then you wouldn’t be pissed with Tony about being ‘wrong’. I get this from people too. They fail to understand the value of EW and instead view it in the harsh light of being a predictor of market direction. It allows me to project price, and gives me some indication if I’m wrong or right. That’s all! Too many play the prediction game and expect the unreasonable.

      • “TS, if you approach EW as something that provides market context, then you wouldn’t be pissed with Tony about being ‘wrong’.”

        Pissed at Tony? What makes you think that? Are you using EW to decipher my plain English or what?

    • mccarthyti says:

      ts321. you must be long, at what price do you sell on downside?

      • mcmasoniam says:

        Good question McCarthy. I’m long also, but with the record of high accuracy that Tony has, I’m watching very carefully and prepared to jump out at the first real sign of a pullback / correction. M

      • Nothing is set in stone for me right now. The moment you get comfortable with the thought of giving back 5-6% on the next significant pull back, you will be fine being long. It’s the thought of catching the exact top or bottom that keeps most on the side lines at worst or force them in to chasing after the move has happened.

    • ewtoriginal says:

      Tradesmart321, your insults are unnecessary here. Wave 1 from 666 to 1373, or 707 x .618= 437. 437+1373= 1810. I think a major short term peak may have occurred today and 1828, an obvious relationship “everyone” knows may not been for quite a while. That would be impossible though so forget it.

    • torehund says:

      Tradesmart : we know market is extended and its still a bullish count. One may sit on the sidelines (not complaining the market goes up as thats their own decision to not partake). Or short and loose ( and thats their decision). Third option is to go long and endure immense risk. But it never pays to fight the market, although its the easiest option of them all.

  30. radrian6 says:

    Hello again,
    Here is a monthly semi-log chart of the RUT to give you a “big picture” perspective.


    • Are you thinking it drops to the lower side of the triangle for a few weeks in a wave 4 then has one more pop in a 5?

    • radrian6 says:

      For the longer term, I don’t have any thoughts on where the RUT is going. This chart and a number of other indications tell me that the upside is likely to be limited until there is a correction or an extended consolidation. If RUT were convenient, it would correct to the blue support line at 980-1000 then climb that line to 1215-20 by the end of 2014 — your scenario for a wave 4 and 5 may work out. In the mean time, if RUT respects the long-term resistance line, the max target for this month would be about 1150 and would increase about 5 or 6 points per month for as long as RUT runs up and sideways.

    • mcmasoniam says:

      Thanks radrian. Outta here for now. TTY All once I get home. GL All!

  31. uncle10 says:

    Bitcoin. Mine for bitcoins by solving math problems. hmm
    Computers took over wallstreet years ago, now they are taking over almost all other areas too.
    Never a dull moment in these interesting times.
    Thanks Tony.
    Happy Thanksgiving all.

  32. ewtoriginal says:

    Please, no comments on killing the golden goose or no more free lunches.We are all still starving.We need to post a count promulgated by the fed that has the fifth of the fifth of C of the most prolific running correction ending now.Then the bull market can start.

    • ewtoriginal says:

      Oops.I meant no more free turkey.Thanks Tony and all who contribute their two cents. Happy Thanksgiving.

  33. Thanks, Tony. May you have a very Happy Thanksgiving … same to this entire blog. 🙂 Be safe all.

  34. StemSki says:

    Hello everyone.
    I have an exercise for anyone who wants to take a crack at a wave count for RUT. A challenge if you will.


    • radrian6 says:

      Minute iv overlaps Minute i … I posted that a few times and did not get any feedback from EW people. I really don’t know what the RUT wave count could be — if you know, please enlighten me.

    • ewmarkets says:

      A gigantic ending diagonal with one of the up waves (c or e) extending? So ab-abcde-de, or abcd-abcde. Would that work?

    • kloutt says:

      RUT breaks every rule of ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY … u can not use EWT on this wave because in order for EWT to work a FREE and FAIR market must exist ….we do NOT have a free and fair market because we have a FED manipulated market … what they call STIMULUS

      until the FED stops printing EWT is useless

      • mcmasoniam says:

        kloutt, no offense intended, but when I start seeing lots of posts like yours, I know that a change in the markets is near. GL to you. M

      • ewtoriginal says:

        EWT is supposed to a measure of mass psychology and the resulting emotional swings displayed in price movement.
        The overall effect of the Fed cannot be discounted as this creates a single effective buyer with no fear of loss. Some months back, and not for the first time by any means, I became convinced that the Fed was buying directly into the equities market through futures. Certain levels held bids that no person with fear should be stalwartly bidding rather than allowing a drop to buy lower as the bid got trampled. 1684 in early August for example.
        I saw the same thing some 11 years ago at DJIA 8600 when the buyer was way too big that no DIA ticked below 86 even. Thats fine a sign that you can go along with a strong buyer behind you.The trouble is that if that buyer can unilaterally pull the plug and the go alongs have ridden a coat tail that no longer exists at what COULD be construed as artificially high prices, then there could be danger below. How do we know if that is now? Is there evidence of direct ,or indirect sanctioned and supported, buying by the fed (aka the Turk)?
        If that buyer did become less enthusiastic at the reactions and the voices of a Hussman or Grantham et al were heeded, therein lies the risk. For now, its all blue skies.

        • tony caldaro says:

          After the market crash of 1987, President Ronald Reagan created the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets to recommend solutions for enhancing U.S. financial markets, preventing significant volatility, and maintaining investor confidence. The group consisted of the Secretary of the Treasury and the Chairmen’s of the Federal Reserve, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
          Thereafter, this “Working Group” became known as the Plunge Protection Team, and many believed that this “Team” would intervene at the appropriate moments to prevent significant volatility in the markets, which would, thereby, prevent market crashes in the future.

  35. bouraq says:

    All indices hitting major resistances: 14 charts today!
    #SPX #DJIA #RUT #FTSE #DAX #EURUSD #GBPUSD #AUDUSD #OIL #GOLD http://www.tradingchannels.co.uk/2013/11/all-indices-hitting-major-resistances.html

    • torehund says:

      If spx breaks resistance it should be a squeeze higher.
      Its not very comfortable times to be invested now, thats for sure. Your charting is excellent.

    • torehund says:

      Importantly on DAX: From 09 bottom it looks like a large abc up. However the c is just too long to validate such an approach. SO then what, could it be a wave 1 and 2 for the the a and b, and then the c is really a wave 3 ? One good reason I am tilting toward trusting my 2000 to 2050 target on spx (before a correction), is just the invalidated abc on the Dax.
      If one have a pattern and it invalidates itself, its sometimes mentally more easy, and later more costly to mold it forcefully to comply with a pre concept. If it ditches itself, it normally isn’t noes count that isn’t accurate but that the pattern is flawed.
      So I am bullish, feels weird to change stance in a hurry though.

      • bouraq says:

        We may have topped now but I don’t expect a sudden drop to commence. We may stay at these levels for weeks and months with sideways moves which would give you a chance to exit. Look at the 2007 top. It took 9 months to form.

      • torehund says:

        Bouraq, thats what I feel too, that rotation between performers and underperformers will take place even without any advance. However If Nikkei breaks out, I think that 2250 or 2350 is feasible as a top on SPX, that would make major 3 with; 2 smaller waves, a large diamond connected double piece large 3 (in which we should be on the part 2 of right now). Then 2 more waves to finish off major 3.
        That would be a major 3 topping at 2350, with major 4 to follow before a final 5th wave to finish it off.

    • mcmasoniam says:

      Thanks bouraq. Always, very nice charts! M

    • bobhopium says:

      14 well documented snapshots of the most important instruments in financial mkts. Great work Bouraq…Thanks.

  36. Thanks Tony.
    For everyone else $APPL is playing out as projected by EW counts last month.
    If Wave 1 = Wave 5 then the target is between 590 and 600. I am waiting for minor 2 of Wave 5 pullback to enter the trade. This chart was from 10/28, not updated today. But you get the idea.


    And Thanks to soulsurferusa for his good call he posted on his blog on $GEOS. I agree with his count and entered the trade today. I should have let the minor 1 complete and wait for minor 2 pullback before entering the trade. Lets see how it plays out.

    • Peter, kudos on your GEOS trade. It’s now tracking beautifully. What an intra-day bullish reversal right at the 1.618x extension of int. med a for int. med. c of Major 4, and no overlap with Major 1!!! I front ran it a bit (I sometimes forget that c-wave thingy… lol… 😉 ), but averaged down to 92ish yesterday. Price target remains IMHO $118. That’s +34% from current price.

      Also note that my SCTY, TSLA, and FB projections from y’day appear to pan out as predicted, if I may be bold and brag for once ;-). No guarantees though 😉

      • I agree with you on TSLA. I am having hard time in accepting your counts on FB. I am thinking FB might be morphing into much complex B wave correction. It may have some upside to complete B wave then C wave down to see 40 before starting next leg higher. That is my 2 cents. I am more confident of BIDU as it is nicely basing after correction and also forming inverse H&S. Good Luck with your trades and good work on EW analysis on many stocks that you have posted.

  37. selhai says:

    There was a sharp sell-off in the final few minutes of trading today on the FTSE this afternoon, and I wondered whether we might see something similar today with the DOW or SPX, given the close transatlantic coordination. Both of them have obliged, also very late in the day.

    How perfect, if NY starts taking profit while many folk are caught up in holiday travel, turkey and football!


  38. attitude928 says:

    Thanks Tony. Great analysis. TNA fingerprinting suggests that the RUT reverses tomorrow. Happy Holiday from Brooklyn.

  39. torehund says:

    Exciting times and there are some stubborn holders out there….
    Shipping and bulk has that heavy feel to itself, and years of shakeouts may just be what it took to give investors stamina, the rise in Egle looks rock solid and impulsive.
    Waiting a little to find a bottom in the crude carriers. Good holidays to el Capitan Caldaros and to all the crew members on the blog.

  40. Hi Tony, I see and ending diagonal fractal pattern, and ending diagonal to the ending diagonal, and a pretty clear 5 waves up this past week in minor 5. I’m looking for 1780 by the end of next week, possibly as low as 1545 if things move quickly. Since it’s Thanksgiving and the end of November the next 2 days might be pretty dead but next week the Grinch steals Christmas. Santa rally has already left the building! Best wishes to you for the holiday.

  41. Hi Tony

    You think we can make it up to 1828 before month end ?

    Blow off or ?

    Thank you

Comments are closed.