friday update

SHORT TERM: all time new highs again, DOW +55

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened one point above yesterday’s SPX 1796 close. After an initial dip to SPX 1795 in the opening minutes the market started to drift higher. At 12:15 FED governor Tarullo’s speech was released: The market continued to move higher throughout the day with only a couple of two point pullbacks. Nearing the close the SPX hit 1805 and ended the week there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.55%. Bonds gained 9 ticks, Crude lost 60 cents, Gold added $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1779 and 1699 pivots, with resistance at the 1828 and 1841 pivots. Last night the FED reported a decline in the M1-multiplier: 0.707 v 0.735. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 52.4% v 52.2%.

The market opened higher today for the third day in a row. With the exception of yesterday’s gap up opening the gradual rise during the day was quite similar. Minor wave 5 confirmed its presence with a new all time high. Minor 5’s first level of resistance has been reached SPX 1804 [Minor 5 = Minor 1]. Should it continue higher SPX 1810 would be next [Int. v = 0.618 Int. i], and then SPX 1818 after that [Minor 5 = Minor 3]. Will have a better idea of the bigger picture after the weekly review.

Short term support at the 1779 pivot and SPX 1746, with resistance at SPX 1804-1810, SPX 1818, and then the 1828 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week quite overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1794. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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36 Responses to friday update

  1. $SPX $SPY $NUGT $AAPL $SSO $TNA $UVXY, roadmap for monday:

    • torehund says:

      There has been a lot of negativity during the many months of rally, but it has been a terrifying grind that hasn’t yielded lots of optimism. Still there are stocks on decade lows that are producing encouraging results. Maybe its time to let optimism run the show for a month or 2. Just a thought.

    • buddyglove says:

      Tore, good post, I went back into Japan modestly a few years ago and am still positive. 450% is a hugh under performance, and a new bull mkt here would be a sight to behold.

  2. M1 says:

    NDX CYCLE WAVE 3 = 1.675 times CYCLE WAVE 1.

    • M1 says:

      …..”Again, I am always a little bit defensive and will manage a position with tighter trailing stops or escape stategies until I see more conviction in the Wave 3. Once Wave 3 is above 1.75, I begin to breath less deeply, relax a little bit more, and will adopt some conservative strategies to help me better stay with the trend as it becomes even more evident. To me, the 1.60 to 1.75 is the critical junction between a ‘last-chance’ Wave C failure or a stronger Wave 3 trend continuing to build.”

    • M1 says:

      I am still expecting a +25% drop NDX CYCLE WAVE 4

      • pooch77 says:


      • M1 says:

        a simple 38.2% fib retrac of cycle wave 3

      • valunvstr says:

        He has too expect it, been underinvested all year. M1, seem likes a really really nice guy but it’s been a bunch of guess all year about pull backs with no reason other than “waves”.

      • M1 says:

        take a look at the comments below posted a few months ago:
        The market didn’t go down as many were expecting
        It found support at 1560
        5wavemodel says:
        April 26, 2013 at 9:17 pm
        I am not convinced that this is the start of a move below 1536, but I do thing the next short term move is to the downside, with a target of 1566.
        M1 says:
        April 26, 2013 at 9:40 pm
        I agree =)
        What is your target on the next move up ?

    • torehund says:

      Rally is running on fumes, but still there will be stocks doing rapid retraces as part of a rotation at the top. But it isn’t a buy and hold market.

  3. Jennifer says:

    Have a great weekend everyone!

    U.S. stocks extended gains; S&P closes above 1,800

  4. 1829 we had it on Sept 14th 11 odd weeks ago as top of major 3 of primary 3… so getting close… but seasonals also bullish… may be a slow grind up to XMAS?

  5. radrian6 says:

    Tony, I apologize for going over my post limit but I wanted to offer an observation on the bigger picture. Springheel Jack’s website ( has some interesting facts about 2013.

    In the past 50 years, the only two years where the weekly middle Bollinger Band held as support were 1964 and 1995. In every other year, the SPX tagged, exceeded, or got very close to the weekly lower Bollinger Band. Right now, the SPX weekly lower BB is near 1616 so it appears 2013 will be added to that very short list. Also note that since 2000, the only two years that did not have at least two hits on the weekly lower BB were 2003 and 2009 — again, 2013 has exceed normal behavior and expectations.

    One conclusion that I can draw from the above data is that 2013 has been an extraordinary year for US stock indexes but it may be unrealistic to expect this kind of performance in 2014 and beyond. The indexes, particularly the RUT, have wandered far from the mean and should soon correct back towards it.

  6. Rancho says:

    Thanks Tony !

  7. nyjsec314 says:

    Nice calls this week. Looking fwd to weekend recap

  8. Those target projections are really helpful for traders. Thank You. It looks like dumb money booking profits from major technology stocks and moving it to Financials and Energy. That is just my observation. It is going to take lot of force to stop this high speed train. Dipped my toe in $XLE today. Looking forward for weekly update.

  9. radrian6 says:

    Good weekend to all,
    RUT pressed to new highs today and broke above ascending triangle resistance — if the bullish pattern plays out, the target is 1167. The RUT intraday chart is showing exhaustion so there may be a pullback or a consolidation after Monday’s POMO injection of $2.75 – 3.5 billion. Volume will be light next week and may remain light with the holidays coming up.

    A lot of members are providing calculated targets for the end of this uptrend — I would welcome a correction but the chart patterns, the season, and the ongoing Fed juice suggest the probability of continuation to higher ground.

    • pooch77 says:

      Agree on that

      • radrian6 says:

        Pooch, with SPX flirting with the upper weekly Bollinger Band and showing exhaustion in a few time frames, I would expect the near-term upside to be limited. However, barring some black-swan catalyst, I don’t see any other technical reason for a correction. There is lot’s of unbooked profit on the table so I can understand some profit taking in January and beyond.

      • pcskier says:

        That is a good point, un booked profits and year end. If I am not mistaken, for institutional pension fund, taxes are a non issue. They can unload as Larry Fink recently warned. What a better time to sell when you have an edge knowing retails wants to wait to sell till next year to booked profits.

  10. gary61b says:

    TY Tony and have a great weekend.

  11. JK1987 says:

    Tony Thanks
    P3 targets:
    SPX cheap short here.
    TSLA cheap long at 118.

    P4 target: ?

    P5 targets:

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