tuesday update

SHORT TERM: pullback continues, DOW -9

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.6%. US index futures were lower overnight, but the market opened flat at SPX 1792. In the opening minutes the SPX pulled back to 1786 and then rallied to 1796 by 10:30. Then after a pullback to SPX 1789, and bounce to 1794, the market pulled back to 1785 by 2pm. Another rally attempt followed as the SPX hit 1791 by 3:30, but the market pulled back into a 1788 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.40%. Bonds lost 10 ticks, Crude added 25 cents, Gold ended flat, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1779 and 1699 pivots, with resistance at the 1828 and 1841 pivots. Tomorrow: Retail sales and the CPI at 8:30, Existing home sales and Business inventories at 10am, then the often volatile FOMC minutes at 2pm.

The market opened flat today, dipped below yesterday’s low, tried to rally, but then made a lower low at exactly SPX 1785 in the afternoon. In the morning we upgraded the green Minor 3 label to dark blue, then posted a tentative Minor 4 near today’s low. Short term the market is sufficiently oversold for a Minor 4 low. But last week the Minor 2 low was made at the open on Wednesday. Let’s see what happens with Minor 4 tomorrow.

Short term support is at the 1779 pivot and SPX 1746, with resistance at SPX 1810 and the 1828 pivot. Short term momentum hit quite oversold and then bounced. The short term OEW charts flip flopped today, ending neutral at SPX 1788. Best to your trading!


LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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105 Responses to tuesday update

  1. pcskier says:

    I think with in 6 months if not sooner we will have a credit and or currency crisis in Brazil, South Africa, turkey, India and Russia. The problem with non crisis QE has been; what will the fed do when we have real crisis?

    • torehund says:

      Russia doesn’t have much debt to GDP, weakest are the US, Canada and most of Europe. You can’t grow with debth unless there is immigration. The latter tool is used up. Debth is colossal and rates low. Recepie for ultradeflationary pressure, flee these places !

      • mkmason2013 says:

        torehund, I’ve never heard you talk as much about deflation as I have in the last couple months. It must be geting very bad in Europe. Are you leaving or staying? I want a permanent assignment in Cape Town so bad I can taste it, but will take what I can get. US markets open near the end of my work day and close about beddie-bye time, which is now. TTYL! GL whatever you do.

      • torehund says:

        M- I am heading for Mexico soon, its a bit off season for surfing yet.
        Government has different tools to inflate the economy and in Europe it seems there aren’t any left, so that will ultimately result in deflation even with low rates. However its a long process..
        Oil companies are feeling the pain of even historically high oil price due to increasing costs of operation. I am bearish on that sector for some time to come.
        M-all things get old also living at just one place, moving around is refreshing. Cape town and Africa in general are on the push and that creates opportunities and excitement among the population, and thats a good wave to join !

  2. elmer510 says:

    Today’s wave down was probably caused by Fed minutes about tapering. SPX was at 1796 and going upwards when this negative news were known. It caused a fast drop to 1777. Tapering is always making the market nervous. And as I wrote earlier today: QE is the main challenge for US economy. Can QE be reduced without sending the economy into a downwards spiral of deflation and unemployment.

  3. uncle10 says:

    Some good and interesting posts today. Thanks.

    Just in case anyone cares- I am closing half my short from SPX 1797.

  4. torehund says:

    Buyback, when physically you just sold is the way to go, after flatlining oil comps and gold finally succumbed to lack of buyers. Go short.

  5. 777daimon says:

    sorry for 4th post but gotta tell people something…
    if you’re shorting now, be very careful.
    after the US markets close, come BOJ minutes and during the last 2 weeks there were in the markets whispers about a positive adjustment in BOJ’s QE …. just an idea, so you won’t cry tomorrow if you keep shorts overnight!

    • ewtoriginal says:

      Sorry for my 4th and final but that trendline was broken again and I believe the FOMC phrasing trumps everything..whether it is another jaw-bone test or otherwise. Complacency is as high as I have ever seen given the circumstances re:manipulation and resulting price action. Looking at the action is a TSLA,for example, not many defiant longs could fathom a rapid drop to the 120s from the 190s. Surprise. I think the market as a whole has that kind of surprise in store soon despite the “where are you going to put your money” arguments..Maybe the answer is Bitcoin…-kidding. If market closes on the lows,may get ugly in short order.

  6. the fact VIX is down I would think it indicates nobody believes the bears have teeth. Also very tough to call a primary 4 since market is not following any pattern and seems to push higher

  7. JK1987 says:

    SPX makes new low below the blue 4 of Minor 4 of Primary 3.
    Primary 3 ended? Primary 4 begins?

  8. ko68 says:


    I think this was interesting:

    “Four of my six long term indicators are in sell mode”

    But: how can you then argue for actual targets like SPX 2200?


  9. I would say VIX being down today is a good indication the FED mins will send us a ton higher at the close

    • pcskier says:

      The $vix made a higher high and so far a higher low, it broke above its 20 DMA yesterday and it is back testing it now. Plus the BB are tight around the $vix, a big move is coming, and I would be surprise if it moves lower because it is already so low.

    • Thomas Crown says:

      Do you really think this can go on forever ? Like VIX at 5 or 6 and 200 SPX pts on a new upleg with such a technical picture ? I mean seriously. Do you bullish guys have any senses of reality at all or are you just naive dreamers who always think “this time is different” just to get burned in the next inevitable next downturn ?
      At least use some caution when you utter an opinion. This complacency is getting frankly ridiculous.

      • tony caldaro says:

        Is that a market opinion?

      • Thomas Crown says:

        My market opinion has been well publicized here. And yes, my above post can be considered as a side comment showing the huge amount of complacency among the perma bulls populating the blog. I think it’s material to point out the never receding hope of the bulls that no matter what, the market will move up. Truthtrader used the VIX as a sign the market would shoot up after the FOMC release. Market has mostly gone up after FOMC releases because they were simply repeating the same thing, over and over again. Same today and yet, we are selling off. Yesterday Bernanke hammered the point again. Evans said no taper before perhaps March 14 and yet, we have a selloff. It is important to note that perhaps there is a psychology shift, one that the bulls will not be able to understand or explain and that will finally put a stop to this “buy the dip mentality” at all cost.
        Whether you are an Elliotician or using any other method, seriously forecasting that the SPX could be at 1950 or 2000 by year-end is utterly absurd and yet, bulls aren’t afraid of voicing such out of bell curve forecast. This kind of talk only happens at tops, not in the middle of 3rd waves and certainly not at bottoms.

      • mkmason2013 says:

        Crown, there’s only so much attn that others will pay to your posts, then, they don’t care anymore. I’m not a true-blue OEW/EW’er, so can’t comment on anything Tony would have to say, nor would I try to do so. Many people are anxious with the unending rise in stock prices, but I think it’s a useful indicator myself. I’m neither Bull nor Bear, but am whatever the markets tell me to be. As for your opinion that 2000 spx is absurd, think back to the first of this year when 1600 was the high in the estimation of some… Absurd! Now 1700, then briefly, 1800. Perhaps you should prepare yourself for The Theatre of The Absurd, just in case. GL!

      • Thomas Crown says:

        Hey Mason, I was simply answering TC’s question regarding whether my post was or not a market opinion. In your dream country but still bitter as ever ! Why the agressivity ?
        Calling for SPX 1600 at the begining of the year is hardly the same thing as calling for 2000 now. I was using the word “absurd” in the statistical sense.

      • mkmason2013 says:

        Crown, I am so very sorry to have interrupted the conversation between you and Tony. Heaven forbid!

        I do find some of your comments very interesting:

        “Do you bullish guys have any senses of reality at all or are you just naive dreamers who always think “this time is different” just to get burned in the next inevitable next downturn ?
        At least use some caution when you utter an opinion. This complacency is getting frankly ridiculous.” and “Whether you are an Elliotician or using any other method, seriously forecasting that the SPX could be at 1950 or 2000 by year-end is utterly absurd and yet, bulls aren’t afraid of voicing such out of bell curve forecast.”

        There’s not even a hint of bitterness in my note when compared to your writings that smack of it in almost every sentence. Whatever… You’re certainly entitled to be upset by the constant rise of stock prices; which has increased the 401k’s of us little, naïve dreamers.

        I’ll just meander back to my futures blog to assist with the finishing touches on our celebration. For some odd reason, we all seem to get along there. The Holiday party this year is at my friends 60 acre ranch outside of Brenham, TX. A wonderfully warm break for those coming from Chicago I should think. BBQ, horseback riding, lovely red wines (my favorite), and numerous other activities,

        For now, time to get ready for work. Happy Holidays to All here! M

  10. fbender7 says:

    Setting aside, for a moment, all regard to economic indicators and technical charts, since we are living in the age of market manipulation on the part of the Fed and the PPT, it seems reasonable to me to anticipate market behavior in light of these things.

    Ben does not want to see turbulence in the markets, whether it be to preserve his legacy as economic savior, or simply because he cares about the well being of the country. Obama does not want a market correction during the holidays because it would further damage his already faltering popularity.

    I believe that the Fed and the White House will continue to use all means at their disposal to prop up this market through the end of the year (and beyond), thus giving us the anticipated Santa Claus rally. The holidays would be the worst possible time to inflict market pain on the American populous. There are already enough people getting laid off from their jobs in December. No need to shrink their 401K’s at the same time.

    My forecast, based solely on the politics of the Fed and the White house is this: expect a nice rally through the end of the year, as mentioned above. Then a minor pullback to start the new year, followed by a parabolic bull market sprint into the March – May timeframe to end the bull market.

    Someone recently pointed out that QE1 and QE2 ended in the month of June. Wouldn’t surprise me if QE3 also ended in June (2014). Nothing I have said here should be taken as trading advice. Do your own analysis; make your own decisions; follow your own intuition. The only reason I have made these comments is in the interest of not overlooking the obvious.

    When all is said and done, the Elliott wave principle will rule, and will encompass all market manipulation efforts. In the end, all the kings horses and all the kings men couldn’t put Humpty together again.

    • jeffbalin says:

      That nursery rhyme analogy is awesome. I knew there had to be a good reason I was being taught those rhymes when I was 5 years old. But to be honest, decades later, I still didn’t know why……until now. Beautiful. Thanks!

    • i agree that human behavior and psychology is what defines the waves and therewith the market ultimately, However, I disagree that we are now living in “the age of market manipulation”. Market manipulation has happened ever since financial markets were invented, and will always happen since that’s also part of human behavior. Ever since the first tulip bubble in Holland to the housing bubble to the current market; the big players always had an advantage. Or as the saying goes: it’s a big club, but you ain’t in it. 😉

  11. mjtplayer says:

    ” Since 1885 [the year] bull markets have lasted 1-5 years, with only two exceptions:
    1921-1929 and 1987-2000.
    Maybe investors in 1937 thought they would get another really big run too?”

    Tony, per your comments above, you don’t count 1990 a bear market?

  12. As a person who has been very bearish of late I do not think we get a correction we want. We cannot even get a real down day. My charts are saying one thing but my account says my charts do not work.. We mention black swan events I do not see any that can send this market down. this market is for sure very well managed. But then again only God knows .

  13. elmer510 says:

    Talking about bubbles and a possible crash in the stockmarket.
    The american economy in general is not overheated with consumer prices hardly rising (in fact deflating last month) and the production running at a normal to low capacity.
    Household debt is still high but significantly reduced the last years. Firms and banks have more healthy balances than for a long time.

    Stockmarket is high, but looking at P/E levels it’s not overvalued at the moment. Earnings are at historical high levels.

    Biggest problem is about QE, whether the improved economy is depending upon printing more money all of the time,. If tapering leads to higher savings rate, deflation and falling GDP could follow in the aftermath. This would certainly cause a crash in the stockmarket.

    • mjtplayer says:

      Total earnings may or may not be at all-time highs, but earnings PER SHARE are. Due to massive stock buybacks over the past several years, companies have been able to increase the EPS dramatically, but by doing so they’ve levered-up their balance sheets.

      Total corporate debt has never been higher at $7 trillion and counting. Instead of paying down debt, companies have been buying back stock, plus issuing more debt to buyback more stock – and why not? Debt issued at 2% to buyback stocks with a 3% dividend is a good deal! That is, until rates rise. If debt were to cost 4% to issue, but the run-up in stock prices have driven div yields down to 2.5%, then it would make more sense to stop buying-back stock and instead pay-off debt. Even worse, companies could begin issuing secondaries with stock prices at all-time highs and use the proceeds to pay down debt. Why not? Issue more stock at 2.5 div yield and pay-off debt at 4% – works out just as well!

      Be careful of the engineered “E” in the P/E ratio, especially in a zero revenue growth environment.

      • elmer510 says:

        it’s very clear that total earning have increased and is historically high according to ST Louis Fed.
        F.ex the last quarters:Corporate Profits After Tax (without IVA and CCAdj) (CP)

        2013:Q2: 1,821.4 Billions of Dollars
        2013:Q1: 1,784.8
        2012:Q4: 1,796.4
        2012:Q3: 1,769.4
        2012:Q2: 1,730.3
        This is much higher than previous the fianciall crisis when you could see a real bubble.
        Take a look at their graphs!

        US corporate debt is 9 trillion USD and rising, but that’s just normal when economy move upwards. I fact it happens all the time when there’s growth. So its a healthy sign if its combined with increased ecquity ratio.

        I can’t see your problem when both buying back stocks or paying debt means the capital behind each stock is increased by the same amount.

        I never heard about a bubble based upon fims buying back own stocks. cause they have large profits!

      • tommyboys says:

        I believe more and more PE is irrelevant. In WBs words you gotta view price metrics though the lens of the “risk free rate of return” – and today’s rate is pretty much record lows. Considering this I can imagine markets moving considerably higher from here. Close to record high corporate profits and record low “risk free” rates – where would you put your money?

  14. jparkins10 says:

    IWM high was on 29th Oct, 17 trading days ago!

    Canary in the coal mine, IMO.

    Same as April 2011, SPX powering ahead, RUT ranging, a little burst up out of the pattern in RUT to set a new high, then promptly entered Primary 2.

    Same here IMO, Primary 4 will start very soon, next week probably as we seem to be in an ED for this minor v.

  15. ewtoriginal says:

    Like Tony, my longer term work and indicators are screaming sell, and have been for several months. Short term, the market in IWM meanders around two trend lines I have.The lower is a slow rising line currently around 109 which was broken two weeks back and later regained (miraculously in my eyes). It is late November and seasonal strength is not to be disregarded, but common knowledge, such as that fact, has a funny way of surprising the many. The disavowed bubble talk is interesting. To me and in the work of many others, valuations are quite stretched using top line and margin metrics.But more importantly, the personality of the market is bubble-like which is far more important. Valuations can be subjective depending on the weight of the metrics. Some people even believe in the phrase “market multiple” which I find preposterous. The market acts frothy, the talking heads are ultra confident and wholly reliant on the fed and central bank actions. The “money of the sidelines” conversation ALWAYS appears at market TOPS and this time is even more vocal than usual. None of the money gatherers who get paid for AUM consider that most aged 55-70 who are in cash and hold most of that “sideline cash” will NEVER EVER put those funds in the stock market. Perhaps having been fooled by fraudulent central bank manipulation for several decades has tarnished the market for them permanently. So, as a factor,I think it is utterly irrelevant.
    I like to say the charts always matter because it is the money voting. I find it curious that markets ramp only when POMO “injections” occur.Just who deploys those funds and who they sell to will prove interesting over the next months. A friend of mine likes to say the buyers are higher and those same people are sellers lower. Ironic…Lots of happy go lucky longs with all the confidence in the world running around.I have longs but not the pumped up stuff….and keeping index shorts awaiting what I expect is a smashing C wave (or minor first down of a 3 in concert with what Thomas Crown and others have described as the potential for a higher degree top in place). Just saying..

    • bobhopium says:

      Hi ewtor
      I disagree that the 55-70 group will “never ever” go back to stocks. i don’t believe they will sit there in cash watching the markets soar away ever higher above 13 year highs. The fear of missing out will make them powerless to resist.
      It is this belief (and charts) that makes me think we have now started the final mania phase of the current bull cycle, which will run into next spring as Mom and Pop go “mad for it”, and although I hate to say it, we and other pros who have been in equity for many years will be happy to sell to them.

  16. pcskier says:

    About 15 years ago I read “secrets of the temple” by William Greider. What I remember the most is the concept that the FED has absolute control over short term rates with their FED rate and open market operation, but the fed’s biggest fear is that long term rates may not follow short term rates and they could lose control of the long bonds. For the past 4 years with QE they have been buying the long bond with QE via their daily/weekly POMO. The most bearish thing I read for a long time was yesterday from Chicago Evan, he expected this current round of QE to purchase 1.5 trillion USD in new bonds, but the start date of this recent QE was Jan 2013, we would hit 1.5 trillion in July 2014. The Fed has ben preaching they will keep a 0% fed rate for years to come but without direct intervention from QE their greatest fear may come true and that is that they will not be able to control the long bond!!!!
    From a fundamental perspective the US DEBT is a bad bet. In 1999 the first bubble (debt to gdp ratio) generated a revenue surplus, in 2007 the second bubble peak we had a deficit of $161 billion down from the previous year. This bubble peak our deficit is around 750 billion !!! down from the previous year.

  17. 777daimon says:

    …from Europe , with love:
    [ via Bloomberg, minutes ago ] : “ECB said to weigh a -0.1% deposit rate if more easing is needed.” … if you were curious what was that biggie spike in US markets 🙂 😀

    • tony caldaro says:

      Deposit rate for Bank reserves?

      • 777daimon says:

        to force banks to pump money in EU economy and stop “parking” it at ECB.
        it’s an indirect form of “easing” only that it has direct effects on economy.

        • tony caldaro says:

          Ben has considered that too from time to time.
          There’s one problem though.
          If the reserves are put to work too fast … inflation ramps up in a hurry.
          ECB has a big balance sheet.
          Interesting, thanks

      • 777daimon says:

        my pleasure, Tony.
        inflation is an effect linked to velocity of money mainly at final consumer level (linked also to salaries).
        SME’s (small and medium enterprises) that are targeted by ECB measure represent only a middle-level consumer on the path to final consumer.
        2 conditions need to be met in order to have a ramping inflation:

        a. strong rise in salaries (second round effect)
        b. monetary base M1 to be at very high level (and in the euro area it’s not quite so, despite LTRO’s)
        a. is not met as condition in Germany, northern Europe and France
        it is a good measure , but ECB can do more.
        but it is a good effective measure, afterall.

    • buddyglove says:

      imho…I think they just dangled the idea to test market reaction, but if it does go ahead it’s goodbye euro and hello dollar aimho.

    • ewtoriginal says:

      You dont consider artificial wealth effect to be inflation? I do. I think it is the most impactful and potentially egregious inflation in that small money expenditures for certain daily expenditures are minute compared to the returns needed on long term retirement funding.

    • Thomas Crown says:

      Strangely enough gold has gone DOWN on the news.
      No fear of inflation whatsoever which as TC said would be the logical down the line consequence of a negative interest rate.

  18. My $0.02… looks strong, cya

    • bobhopium says:

      I hope some of the wave dudes here will respond, but it certainly fits with my view. GL.

      • hi,i asking because in this count wave 2 minimum get under wave 1,but not in EOD numbers,supposing that is valid, wave 5 of M3 of PIII is nearly equal wave 1,and in Tony’s count wave 5 of PIII is at 38,2% of wave 1

  19. Thomas Crown says:

    You got to be envious of the bulls’ faith displayed on this blog.
    For some there is absolutely little or no doubt that we are in Minor 4, with no risk whatsoever at breaching the Minor 1 high at 1774, thus invalidating the current count and probably looking at a Minor 5th failure at the ATH a couple of days ago. Instead, these bulls are absolutely sure that tonite FOMC will be, once again, the catalyst that embarks the market to new highs in a Minor 5 that could end between 1805 and 1830.
    Some ultra bulls even believe we are still in Minor 3, thus pushing up the Minor 5 high to a few weeks and at the 1900’s level !
    How can you blame them for being so cocky and so blind to the dire situation CBs have created by establishing forever ZIRP.
    But all it takes is to look at a daily or a weekly chart and see that we are at an historical juncture in term of complacency and OB condition.
    My proprietary studies go back since 1990 and use a multitude of data and technical indicators which shows that we are in the 5% percentile of results that matched previous major tops.
    Obviously the March 2000 top is still number one but the current condition resembles the top of Oct 2007 and the one of July 2011.
    Best of luck

    • tony caldaro says:

      my long term indicators suggest the same … agree

      • Thomas Crown says:

        I guess having TC agreeing on one’s comments can’t be really a bad thing 😉
        Let’s hope this current market action stays within the boundaries of the past 23 years and doesn’t create a statistical black swan of gigantic proportions !

        • tony caldaro says:

          Actually Thomas it appears everyone is waiting for, or denying the possibility of, a potential black swan event.
          The stock market does not need a so called ‘black swan event’ to enter a bear market.
          It only needs a technical breakdown.
          These usually occur before a black swan is even recognized, and then justifying the bear market action.
          Currently four of my six long term indicators are in sell mode.
          This last time this occurred was at the 2011 high.
          When all six hit sell we have a 2007 style top.

    • bobhopium says:

      Good post, but imo you are overlooking one thing important thing, and that is that the S&P has broken out above the 2000 highs. Whichever way we squint at the chart this is a major bullish event that everyone can see. One could argue that we have had 13 years underperfomance and the mkt is now catching up and discounting better times ahead.

      • tony caldaro says:

        Since 1885 [the year] bull markets have lasted 1-5 years, with only two exceptions:
        1921-1929 and 1987-2000.
        Maybe investors in 1937 thought they would get another really big run too?

    • mkmason2013 says:

      Thomas Crown, thank you for the very well-written synopsis of the current state of stock markets. Very well done. Would like to comment regarding not needing a big Black Swan event to send stocks tumbling. I agree that one large event is not necessary, but what if there are many smaller events; “Black Ducklings”, if you will? I think we might have seen one earlier today in the form of retail sales rising, YET, retail prices are falling, some falling pretty hard. In think this is very deflationary, and when we get enough deflationary black ducklings, there’s likely to be a domino affect throughout our economy and stocks will take a tumble. IMO, this is the type of duckling that Ben cannot control. As one blogger pointed out, the velocity of money is very important, and because of the lack of it, plus the lack of rising wages, and new, good wage jobs, etc., a rising stock market in and of itself is not true inflation. However, the signs are many, some small, that deflation has arrived and it’s multiplier effect is beginning to matter. JMO. Thanks again. Have a good evening. Gotta go get prepped for FOMC. Biya Danke.

    • You make an interesting argument. I read between the lines on it that we could potentially have seen the top this past week of the whole bull market, considering how week wave fives have been. Especially in small caps just like 2007. Today is anemic, the buying impulse has gone away from the market. Game of chicken on the wave v of minor 5? Someone’s going to blink soon. Bulls are getting a warning today they shouldn’t ignore.

    • ourmaninnyc says:

      Thanks for this post — it says a lot of what I think (and feel) but in a far more detailed and elegant way.

  20. $SPX %SSO $NUGT $UVXY $SPY, market update for tuesday with wed. trading plan (within blog’s remarks section) : http://standardpoor.wordpress.com

  21. Thanks, Tony! Good evening to you.

    • torehund says:

      The art: The flatlining with some breaks last 3 days tells a common tale of a real plunge gap down near term. What I can not decipher is why a seasoned investor like Warren Buffet buys a big stake in Exxon here at a peak (maybe he is afraid to loose the rally). Well he is smarter than me, and has the habit of sitting locked into positions for decades.

  22. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    The ripples in the waves are tightening. 😉

  23. Wow Tony 76 posts total yesterday? Guess things have settled down.

    • tony caldaro says:

      a lot less noise lately

      • more often than not people look for things to justify their opinion. Not much money being made trading indices. Elliot has not been the most practical way to trade this market as of late as stock selection has been the way to go in a one way market. Much Respect to Caldaro to sticks to what he sees. For Old timers like myself very hard to buy into and trust this rally but no other choice as my count has been very wrong and adjusting and making my count fit has gotten me nowhere

      • Perhaps the low number of posts is in part a reflection of the level of complacency in the market right now? The post number seems to spike during times of emotional stress and drop during times of complacency. Maybe we could call it the Caldaro Oscillator? lol

        • tony caldaro says:

          think setting some rules, like limiting the number of posts per day
          and chasing off some chest pounding types that were only interested in making noise
          had a lot to do with it
          but yes, when emotions run high comments soar

  24. Nice call on Minor 4 probability. I like when probabilities morphing into possibilities. So that I can participate in ride minor 5 wave with tight stops. Thanks Tony.

  25. Jennifer says:

    Thanks Tony!

    U.S. stocks dropped as investors await Fed’s announcement:

  26. bouraq says:

    Equities still strong:

  27. torehund says:

    We are entering b-swan times, just hope the substrate is a digging and exposure effort and not any catastrophic event. Chinas impending economical collapse, or the retirement money gone somewhere else and/or another economical sinkhole. Don’t think they can keep the lid shut on such issues all the way to Christmas, substrate for big news are flowing freely around us.

  28. radrian6 says:

    Hello Tony et al,
    The RUT retracement has overlapped Minor 1 so it will be interesting to see how this uptrend finishes for the RUT assuming it’s not already complete. If the fifth wave failed, there should be more downside to confirm a wave 3 within a five-wave impulse.

  29. Tony in y’day’s update: “Should the market decline a bit further, i.e. 1785, then the count is more probable.”… SPX dips today to 1784.72… Talk about having a sense of market direction and price level! Hats’ off!!

    • More I look at it the more it looks like one more slightly lower low could happen early tomorrow, then the pattern should be complete and we get one last pop to 1810 area. The topping out could take weeks though before a real decline. Trading range perhaps with retests near highs, like fall 2012. Am thinking shorts looking for an immediate crash will be disappointed. Oscillators will works for awhile in daily and hourly timeframes. People have been too well trained to buy the dips.

  30. JK1987 says:

    Tont Thanks
    Which one has higher probability?
    fifth wave failure at SPX 1796?
    or fifth wave to 1810?

Comments are closed.