monday update

SHORT TERM: new highs then pullback, DOW +14

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.6%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.6%. US index futures were higher overnight and the market opened one point above Friday’s SPX 1798 close. In the opening minutes the SPX made a new high at 1802, then dipped to 1796 by 10am. At 10am the NAHB was reported lower: 54 v 55. The market then bounced to SPX 1801 by 11am, dipped to 1798 by 1pm, then hit 1801 again at 2:30. After that the market started a larger pullback. At 3:30 the SPX hit 1788, then bounced to close at 1792.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.95%. Bonds gained 12 ticks, Crude lost 95 cents, Gold dropped $14, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1779 and 1699 pivots, with resistance at the 1828 and 1841 pivots. Tomorrow: a speech from FED chairman Bernanke after the close.

The market opened higher today, hit a new all time high at SPX 1802 and DOW 16k+, then pulled back for the rest of the day. Today’s decline from 1802 to 1788 is the largest pullback in over a week. This suggests Minor 3 may have completed at today’s high with Minor wave 4 currently underway. We noted this possibility with a green Minor 3 label on the hourly chart. Should the market decline a bit further, i.e. 1785, then the count is more probable. If not, there is a possibility that Minor 3 may be subdividing. We should know in the next day or so. Also of note, last Monday the market rallied to SPX 1773 in the opening minutes. Then declined to SPX 1761 by Wednesday. This high and low were labeled as Minor waves 1 and 2. Maybe Minor waves 3 and 4 are following a similar path.

Short term support is at the 1779 pivot and SPX 1746, with resistance at SPX 1805-10 and the 1828 pivot. Short term momentum declined from a negative divergence to slightly oversold at the close. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1787. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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79 Responses to monday update

  1. torehund says:

    last days flatlining among the oil comps, seems like a big gap down is awaiting them.

  2. bobhopium says:

    Greetings all.
    Still waiting for some kind of flush/ending-structure down to 1780 area to add to longs…expecting the next wave up to be a biggie… GL to us all.
    Spoos hourly :-

  3. JK1987 says:

    Any possibility SPX Primary III has completed?

  4. Tony

    What is target for wave V ? Are we looking at 1828 ? Seems a bit too much maybe ?

    Thank you

  5. radrian6 says:

    Hello Tony et al,
    This may or not be important but please take note and judge for yourselves. Tony has the SPX Minor 1 top at 1773.44; the equivalent level for the RUT is 1103.05 which has been sharply overlapped. Assuming the SPX count is correct, RUT cannot be on the same count. I’m not an OEW person so I cannot speculate on the remaining possibilities. RUT has so far made a very clear a-b-c pullback from 1120 to 1098 and is currently bouncing.

  6. M1 says:

    Short term support at abt 3370.
    Medium term support at 3050

  7. Good afternoon all, I see a c of c of minor IV in progress right now in SPX. Should see a recovery late today or in early morning. Then we’ll see tomorrow.

  8. This is should be short term bottom, or a big flush coming… MHO

    • torehund says:

      The awareness of the importance of the environment is escalating, that be fracking dangers, nuclear power installations and consumerism. Sometimes you find what you look for, and the underlying cause whether objective or not DO shift sentiment.
      We can all agree it has gone too far, here in Norway the garbage man find goods not even out of their wrapping before they are dumped…
      And look to China, where we have exported our bad living habits resulting in a massive increase in vascular diseases and acquired diabetes. Tony talked about the 4th density, maybe we are ready for part 2.

      • torehund says:

        Also opened shorts reluctantly today, if it was reluctant enough remains to be seen. Somehow being somewhat ashamed of opening a position sometimes helps the position.

  9. scottycj1 says:

    If we stay down today, could be todays CIT marks a low (4) with the next CIT
    the 25th as the High. (5)

  10. gary61b says:

    I have some confluence on the spx of the 1812-1813 level for possible target.

  11. To show how off my count is. I have a WAVE C impulse taking us down to 1500 on S&P. Time to follow caldaro for sure.

  12. Tony

    You think we get minor wave 5 up on FOMC tomorrow likely?

    Target 1810 for the minor wave 5?

  13. mjtplayer says:

    If that was it for minor 4, then it looks like minor 5 could top in the next day or 2. The S&P ending diagonal resistance is around 1,805 – an overthrow a couple days from now would be in the 1,810 area. Perhaps Tony’s 1,828 pivot could be hit in the S&P, during primary 5.

  14. there are days that I think IF the entire investement community got up in the morning and hit the SELL button the market would still go higher.

    • Thomas Crown says:

      Boy do I know how you feel ! And all this for a P4 that could take us basically moderately lower than we were in early October. What a joke. It really sucks to be a bear.

  15. buyers (bots) showed up right on time, clear the sellers at ES 89.75-91.50 and W5 IMHO

  16. 777daimon says:

    Tony : ”Should the market decline a bit further, i.e. 1785, then the count is more probable. If not, there is a possibility that Minor 3 may be subdividing.”
    Overnight continuous SPX 500 contract futures didn’t even reached in cash equivalent 1785 level (one point below 1779 pivot). There is a real danger of a subdividing Minor 3.
    If bears can do something – do it at the opening today!
    But my intuition says that bears are powerless. Asia and Europe didn’t sold SPX 500. US bears can prove they can?

  17. torehund says:

    In a scenario where markets starts a decline and Yellen continues this infusion one would think the dollar would decline, making it a double deflation.

  18. Hi Tony

    WHEN you think Primary wave III tops – how many points of drop would you be looking for probability for Primary wave IV ? I know you say – let first Primary III top – but would there not be a probability scenario for like -10% drop ?

    Thank you

  19. Hi Tony,
    I know you’re familiar with the concept of wave alternation, but it’s something that I’ve just learnt about:
    Since PII was a sharp correction, based on your main wave count, are you expecting any PIV correction to be sideways? Since PIII is 728 points so far, and a 10% correction of 180 points is around 25% of PIII, perhaps in the scheme of things that would fit the definition of sideways?
    Just wondering about some of the thinking/theory underpinning the PIV idea.
    Many thanks.

  20. The previous weekend on the 10th, I said ‘the upper target may yet be achieved by the end of this November OpEx week…. for the [linked] chart to continue to be good, we’ll see if a daily cycle low occurs on US Thanksgiving Week.’ I am sticking with that timing band.

    The ascending triangle trading range we’ve been in since May was resistance and is now support at 1758. We’ll find out soon if this is a base-on-base formation atop the wedge. The chart from that weekend update contains potential retrace areas.

  21. Thanks, Tony! If charts still mean anything (see below). The Warning has been on this chart for years … it is now in the warning zone.$SPX:$VIX&p=W&yr=15&mn=0&dy=0&id=p73796657589&a=252106543&listNum=4

    • tony caldaro says:

      thx Jedi
      lots of complacency, just like 2000

      • pcskier says:

        I follow $spx:$vix daily. The 20 DMA $spx:$vix is starting to roll over. It was showing negative divergence with spx price for a couple of weeks prior, meaning the market was hitting new highs yet $spx:Vix was not, When it eventually made a new high or hit it’s recent double top and long term top it retreated like hitting a hard end point. The market showed weakness and pulled back too. Top sign??? Long term bears like David Rosenberg have recently been saying if the $spx falls to it’s 200 dma it will be bought claiming a bear market is off the table. Richard Russels is currently expecting a manic parabolic run up in stock prices. The bulls “all” believe 85 billion a month in QE will continue to make this market run up higher. I heard one guy yesterday claim we will hit 2200 before selling back off to todays levels at 1800 hence no risk what so ever in owning equities. I thought the top was in 2011, and last year when the $spx hit 1474 I was sure that was it, earlier this year when the $indu was below it’s 20 week moving average and it appeared the 20WMA was rolling over I thought we were going to be headed for the elusive bear market. I am in a wait and see mode now, I am hopeful this will be the top. I believe the bigger the top the lower the low or the more pain that will feel in the future when revision to mean occurs. Tomorrow may be the tell, with the retail data and fed minutes. Lastly, more multi million dollar homes are being built now than the peak in 2007 out here in park city some are built by the resident but a lot of them are being built to sell for a profit. If a 8.5 million$$$ spec home is not a sign the top is near I am not sure what is.

    • uncle10 says:

      Jedi, that is a nice chart! Wonder if this time will be different? Thanks for sharing.

  22. torehund says:

    In a perfect world nasdaq has made a large abc (2 waves) from bottom 09, and then we reenter all our favorite stock at 1750. From 4000 to 1750 in a large abc down, yes its possible.

  23. scottycj1 says:

    Tomorrow or Wednesday should be the high. Gann dates and astro here very strong and say we should turn. 1803 is my target. Good Luck from Market Highs and Lows 6:32 pm ET 11-18-2013

  24. I have a feeling clubbing baby seals is off topic then too so here is a chart for entertainment.
    Calling tops is very trendy, but there is potential fractal and fibonacci for potential PB

  25. Jennifer says:

    Dow Jones and S&P pull back from record highs on Icahn’s remarks:

  26. Caldaro thanks for your dedication. My EW count shows a massive plunge coming but then again my count has been very wrong. As a Pretcher follower for many years I have gotten use to having been wrong. either way technical and fundamental wise this market is very over valued and due for a correction. Caldaro I think we need a count for the FED and or Carl Ichan LOL

  27. ross368 says:


    Always interested to hear your view on the Austrailian ASX. Do you think we are due for a correction or do you think we are headed in the direction of the 5850 area. And are you still expecting us to retrace back under 4,000.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Ray, in our OEW group, made a projection for 5450 (blue line) in the AORD about a year ago.
      Have not talked to him lately.
      Not sure yet, if Int. C will subdivide or that was it.
      Still in an uptrend, but -div on the weekly chart.

  28. JK1987 says:

    Tony Thanks for the Minor 3 of Int. v of P3 decision even it’s a green!

    With Minor 3 here, is oew weekend update goal of SPX 2200 for Primary III can be achieved?
    I also saw oew weekend update touted high numbers of SPX 1970 and SPX 2070, and SPX 2214. Are those achievable numbers?
    Even oew minimum of SPX 1810 and 1826 seem far away with today’s key reversal sell-off day .
    Today FED’s Plosser warned goals can’t be achieved.

    • tony caldaro says:

      We threw those numbers out there over the weekend as possibilities, not probable targets.
      Until the SPX hits 1970 we should not even consider SPX 2070 or 2214.
      And, until the SPX hits 1828, SPX 1970 should not even be considered either.
      One pivot at a time please, until the major indices re-sync.
      They are still in trifurcation.

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