thursday update

SHORT TERM: rally continues, DOW +55

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.2%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.9%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 339k v 336k, as was the Trade deficit: $41.8bn v $38.8bn. The market opened one point above yesterday’s record SPX 1782 close. It then made a new high at SPX 1785 in the opening minutes, dipped to 1780 by 10am, then rallied to 1791 (clearing the OEW 1779 pivot) by 11:30. After a small dip to SPX 1787 by noon, the market rallied to 1792 just before a 1791 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.25%. Bonds gained 17 ticks, Crude was flat, Gold rallied $15, and the USD was flat. Medium term support is now at the 1779 and 1699 pivots, with resistance at the 1828 pivot. Tomorrow: the NY FED and Export/Import prices at 8:30, Industrial production at 9:15, and Wholesale inventories at 10am.

The market opened higher today, dipped, and then made new all time highs nearing the close. With the SPX trading above 1786, it has cleared the tough 1779 pivot, and has now set its sights on the OEW 1828 pivot. The short term count suggests the market is still in Minor 3 of Intermediate wave v. And Minor 3 has already exceeded the length of Minor 1: 1792-1761 v 1773-1746. Industrial production numbers tomorrow.

Short term support is now at the 1779 pivot and SPX 1746, with resistance at SPX 1810 and the 1828 pivot. Short term momentum spent most of the day in extremely overbought condition, suggesting a pullback can now occur at any time. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1775. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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127 Responses to thursday update

  1. perversionofthemean says:

    777, I wonder if there is a slightly different interpretation of the sentiment data. As I looked at it, it seemed to me that as the market went higher, short interest rose, and as the market declined shorts covered and short interest declined. Conversely, as the market got cheaper, longs increased, and as the market rose, longs liquidated. It would seem as though this is what you would want to do. Am I mistaken?

  2. uncle10 says:

    Looks like a great spot to short to me. I know I seem crazy!? My stuff tells me to short so I am. Risk is about 5 SPX points, reward 15-20 points.
    Good weekend all.

    • jmoptions says:

      I am short my trading account via medium term options on selected stocks.

      Like others on this board, out of all longs in 401k’s and IRA’s, cash only. made that change at M3 top.

  3. blackjak100 says:

    They want 1800 strike on S&P and 525 strike on AAPL. Pretty obvious!

  4. buddyglove says:

    The Wall Street motto has now been changed from BTFD to BTATH.

  5. mjtplayer says:

    Full moon Sunday night, could lead to a minor 3 top on Monday. Lots of POMO next week, big POMO day Monday, maybe that’s the juice for minor 3 to top out around 1,810? Down to 1,790 in minor 4, up to 1,822 to complete minor 5, int 5 & primary 3? Shouldn’t take more than a week or 2 for this to unfold…

  6. pcskier says:

    Today’s poor economic news did not make the $tnx or 10 yr yield take a dive, it still closed green and did not make a lower low. They will be forced to taper if $tnx keeps marching higher or it will appear they lost control over the long bond and it’s over if it appears they have lost control. For the past year it’s been tougher for the primary dealers to buy low and sell high and the trend of higher rates may continue for decades if we made a secular trend change last year when the $tnx bottom at 1.39%.

  7. jmoptions says:

    Best I can tell, VIX only has had 6 trading days with a lower intraday of this bull market.

  8. RDC says:

    I have changed my mind shorting this market for now until January …
    1800 will be tested few times, may retrace few points then it will bust through 1800 and head towards 1850-1900.

  9. Looking at this minor iii, I don’t really see any pullbacks that stand out. Its long and extended but makes me wonder if its still minute i. Any thoughts?

  10. torehund says:

    The T(I)LT scenario, nearing bottom of wave 2 ?

  11. lunker1 says:

    Hey Yo!
    (Jesse from Breaking Bad)

    The harder they come, the harder they fall, one and all. (The cruiseship band doing Jimmy Cliff)


  12. radrian6 says:

    Hello Tony and all,
    The problem with a marathon bull market is that it inspires trust — people trust the market with more and more of their net worth and that expands the bubble even further. To me, “trust” and “stock market” are two unconnected terms. I’ve always felt that the stock market is a bit like the ocean — when you’re in it, you never turn your back on it.

    It seems to me that after 4-1/2 years of gains, a lot of the smart money is out or on it’s way out — if you’ve collected gains since 2009, why hang around for another 50-100 points? Jedimasterstudent recently posted that she cashed out the accounts she maintains for her children — that’s a smart-money move and I applaud the logic of her decision.

    And now … the RUT!

    The RUT still appears to be in a wave 3 but it’s sluggish and the angle of ascent is shallow compared to SPX. I’m still looking for this uptrend to start consolidating at 1125-1130 but I can’t see beyond that. If Tony’s SPX count is correct, RUT will roll over from 1130 and break below 1079 — that would confirm a double top and very likely start a more serious correction that has been missing from this market for over one year. However, if RUT makes a shallow retracement from 1123 then continues the rally, it could reach 1165-70.

    • jparkins10 says:

      It’s also possible that RUT truncates, I’m thinking this is more likely as this pattern unfolds.

      • jparkins10 says:


        8 Monday’s post-OPEX this year, 2 have had big gap down opens, other 6 were around flat, 3 of 8 had significant downside action post open, 2 of 8 had significant upside post open (but not as big as the downs), 3 of 8 had big down closes, biggest up close was only 0.3%!

        Summary, more downside chance than upside on Post OPEX Monday

      • radrian6 says:

        Agree to the possibility of truncation but I also see the possibility of a cup-with-handle pattern forming at 1123. I would rather see a marginal new high for Int. v but I’d settle for truncation — either way, 1079 has to be taken out.

      • jparkins10 says:

        The lack of upside from the open the last 2 days is more suggestive of minor iv to me…I believe SPX is still in minor iii

  13. berniebaruch says:


    Has the tremendous increase in weekly options changed Friday trading patterns?
    I don’t know the batting average but I would hazard to guess that Fridays have been batting about 850 in the past 52 weeks.
    Kinda like the Cardinals with men in scoring position in 2013.

  14. tuamotu says:

    int iv of Major 5 of Primary III start ?

  15. Are we sure we got a new FED?

  16. wolf7219 says:
    if everything is fine why the financial sector does not grow?

  17. $SPX the thing about long extensions and impulses is they keep extending and impulsing

  18. mjtplayer says:

    Hey Tony,

    You get the feeling the stock market is in the euphoria stage? Certainly looks like it to me, no telling how long it will last and where it ends, but it’s a little scary now

  19. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony and the OEW
    Remain Objective, and have a great weekend all.

  20. scorp100 says:

    Namaste Tony. Is CAF looking any better now? Not aware of any event that might indicate bottom.

  21. Mr. CL- EE says:
    You only have one chance in life so go for it
    Trade well and Go Spartans !
    adios amigos

  22. 777daimon says:

    Soros has cut his shorts on S&P 500 to 30% of his August SPX 500 shorts exposure.
    there is a chance that that was a hedge for his stocks all along the way until now.
    at that moment (Aug ’13) everybody thought that he is actively shorting market.

    it’s the 3’rd (last post) today so one piece of advice: today until 10-11 am (or maybe 12 … to 1 pm) there are possible some shackings to weak long hands so don’t be afraid of some swings (today is OPEX).
    my bullish vision remains the same , a one day (or half-one day) “boo” approach won’t scare me.

    after we have broken the long term R channel (since 2009) a new channel is defined right now for medium-long term (next 2- 3 years) – and this breach is bullish long and medium term.

    Have a great week-end. Bye.

  23. At the risk of falling into the classic “this time it’s different pitfall”, I am tending to increasingly agree with Daimon777. It is beginning to feel like the market just has some higher target than many people suspect. It provokes a fair amount of anxiety in me that numerous sentiment indicators are showing too much optimism by various investor groups and that valuations are growing steeper all the time. But the corrections we have been having in Primary 3 seem to consist mostly of some version of sector rotation. And that includes the present one as well.
    The Russell 2000 ($RUT) is still falling short of making a new high, but the S&P Midcap 400 did so on Thurs, Nov 14. Of course the DJIA, DJTA, S&P 500, and Wilshire 5000 (even if it is bigger than US GDP) made new highs as well. I don’t think the relative weakness in the $RUT will turn to strength until the A-D ratio starts recording daily pluralities of 1500+ because the majority of stocks (even on the NYSE) are small caps. The $RUT has been a market leader for a long time, and it is well entitled to a “rotational” rest. But I don’t believe that it’s consolidation, and that of the A-D line, is going to last too much longer.
    I think the Elliott Wave structure is going to scale into another level of degree before this bull market ends, and I think it’s form may only be completely knowable in retrospect. However, Tony and maybe a few other of the best EW students will undoubtedly be the first to recognize the new pattern as it develops, so we would be well advised to carefully follow their analysis (full disclosure: Tony is presently the only EW analyst whose blog or letter that I read, although some other technicians, such as Andre Gratian, make some use of EW theory).

    • perversionofthemean says:

      There’s absolutely a higher target for the market. The entire “range” of ’99-’12 was eclipsed at the start of the year, and that elects targets significantly higher. It’s more obvious when you blend SPX/NDX/RUT together, as most managers do. So, the real question is how long should a technical breakout run before returning to test the breakout? It’ll run in spite of bad news and the shadows that lurk behind every corner until you’ve got a clean 5 waves complete. Unfortunately, because of the following reasons, EW appears to me more of a classification system rather than a tradable system:
      waves can extend,
      –all 5-wave advances at one point are at a 3rd, leaving you wondering if you’re about to start a 4th or a rip-your-face-off C,
      –all 3-wave declines can become doubles or triples just as you thought your wave-2 of a 5-wave advance becomes a C,
      –rules about overlapping waves 1 & 4 are tossed out because of “legal” leading and ending diagonals, and last but not least,
      –there are so many fib ratios that of course, one of them will work, and it’s not the one you’re using.
      I respect EW. The required-reading for CMT’s includes a book that endorses EW, but makes the case that you don’t have to know what wave you’re in, you just have to recognize, for example, that you just completed 5 down, and the market is going to rise. It may be a B or a 1, but it doesn’t matter, it’s going up. And with that kind of thinking, you can fashion a system that isn’t rigid. That advice would have served this board well this summer, when most were looking for the next shoe to drop. Few were bullish. I was bullish, especially on NDX, but I bought the C-wave thinking, figured I was wrong, and rigidly awaited wave C to begin. Very expensive complacency — an expensive form of arrogance. This is why I asked early this year or last if any experienced EW’er was in So Cal and wanted to pair and overlay EW with the tools I usually use. No one was interested, or no one was from So Cal! My old system is simple: buy price and RSI breakouts and major trend-line and moving average bounces, sell at targets or failures of major moving averages, or sell when either breakouts fail or momentum trends fail. I do a geometric rotation of my charts, to de-trend. Patterns become clearer. Edwards and Magee stuff is painful otherwise, so necessity was the mother of that invention!
      I added new tools to my system via OEW study, blended with some math concepts: the 1st-derivative of a 5-wave advance and 3-wave decline will take the shape of a parabola, and the declining phase will occur where you’d expect, on the right side. When the market is done going down, the derivative will exit the parabolic curve, and start rising. Conversely, supportive parabolas will emerge during declines, leading to the divergences you all readily spot.
      Don’t get me wrong, I’m not boasting. I’ve just got 25 years of success with my system, with plenty of intermittent periods of cluelessness. Why? Because without a classification system, I never know where I am after buying. I calculate my math-based target, put some faith in it, and let it run. Typical fib ratios get overrun routinely, so it feels like stupidity to guess whether today it will reverse at 38.2, 50, 61.8, or some other ratio (a coin toss is tough enough to successfully guess, so imagine picking a fib ratio correctly with repeated success). Those fibs seem to work well for intermediate targets, but 50% and 100% are what I still use, based on percentages, not points. We have a target much higher, and I’ve divided the distance to be traversed into 4ths, because geometric-means double nicely that way. While I don’t know if we’ll truly stop at the 1st quartile, I think that’s where we’re headed, and it’s higher. EW study also revealed to me that sometimes A=C, and this really helped me understand why a fair number of my projections down fail. Luckily, EW and my math/programming background took me toward counting NOT price waves, but 1st-derivative waves within constraining parabolas (because parabolas are symmetric, if you can curve-fit after the 1st-half is complete, you won’t know the actual path of the market, but you’ll get some *time* ideas on where waves should end, especially B and C).
      So, to me, we’re presently in the right side of a parabolic 1st-derivative down (just slowing, not reversing), but we’re also on the right side of a parabolic 1st derivative up (speeding up). Think of an oval. Mid year, our oval was at its fattest, and we had our largest decline because the safety-net was furthest away. Now, we’re pinching our speedometer. Rallies and corrections are shortening — but this is hardly a negative. If our wave extends, we’ll pop-out on top of the parabola that was pointing down, and it’ll become a new support structure.
      And, it’s why there’s complacency. Good, humble, trend-followers recognize that the 1st-derivative up is supportive, chartable/calculable for stop purposes, and there’s that higher target I mentioned earlier…a magnet institutions are gunning for. Why sell if the trend is higher and downside is a buying opp and temporary? They’ve always got more inflows to deploy.
      I see that we’re in a 5th of a 5th, etc., and the I.I. sentiment data is lopsided, so I wait… I know that I should put on an ES or NQ and set a stop. Those humble people I mentioned are making money. My arrogance this summer still has me in cash. Why must I have a distracting day job?

  24. Cliff Uzan says:

    Hi Tony,
    The catalyst for the decline seems to be non- existent. However, the pressure in Washington is building. It would not surprise me if someone influential said something to cause a sharp market decline to divert attention away from what’s going on with Obamacare. On March 3rd or 4th of 2009, Obama said it was a great time to invest in stocks. At this point, similar to 2009, its probably a good time to sell stocks.
    This market appears very close to reaching maximum altitude. Thanksgiving is looking very suspect to me. Maybe sideways for the next 8 days with a final thrust a week from Wednesday, just in time for Thanksgiving. The market has become quite complacent, that is why people continue to buy because they perceive little risk. However, leadership rotation is changing everyday. Perfect time to start accumulating a short position. IMHO we may reach SPX 1826.

  25. 777daimon says:

    at some time in the future you will discover that Minor 3 of Int. V of Primary 3 has subdivided.
    if 1805 in cash is taken to the upside during this Minor 3 (or during one of it’s subdivisions) and held after that during Minor 4 conservative target for Int.V (and Primary III) is 1925-1960 and wild target is 2050 – 2200.
    As time I see the period 28 dec’13 – 9 jan’14 as finishing Primary III.
    I have to tell you that there are only 6 more weeks only of 2013 and yearly banking window dressing (for bonuses) is in action.
    Be careful with your money – now it’s not the time to short. Don’t mess your small retail money with the banksters bonuses greed. They have powerful ammo to keep this market floating and rising – it’s about their bonuses.
    take care and be wise!

    • torehund says:

      777, I used to have a projection like you have and still I don’t know, it was the lightness of the market that made me jump out. However some shares are holding the pops, but not many of the small caps I track. Seems like money goes in and vanishes quickly. However I can’t see the dollar appreciating whilst stocks continue to rise. I just don’t see gold plummeting signaling deflation and at the same time stocks go up (and bear cross in gold normally tells the truth). Market is running on lots of unfilled gaps, that isn’t sound and its risky to be long overnight under the prevailing conditions. Lots of contradictory signals, like rain and sunshine simultaneously. I agree that shorting here is also dangerous. NAS has soon an abc complete and will have to correct no matter what in a not so distant future. I agree that if the 2366 or so becomes a reality there will be enormous amounts of money made by the bravest.
      FED can’t force nature, just push it to the limits that nature permits or it will piggy back. Its us the traders, plus some BOOTS that will at one time revert to sanity and provide the deflation we need to make stuff affordable and in line with what folks can actually afford. Then the economy can grow out of real demand.
      Housing bubbles in Canada, Norway, UK are getting monstrous and lots is based on loaned money. Growth is nowhere to be seen, and unemployment is raging in Europe.
      Tonys plastic wave system with some rigidity inside of it is seeing a 4 pretty soon, and thats also one reason I am just sidelined with a small bear position. Just recently results came out of france with 1,5 percent less export, signaling lesser demand, it justn seem like Europe has the power to muster anything at this time. China is belly up and could decline to 1500. Well when contradictory signals sort out its maybe time to re-enter.

      • 777daimon says:

        Dear Tore,
        I strictly follow technicals, never pay too much attention to fundamentals – the driver within the fundamentals may be one or another (QE, aliens or whatever…).
        Related to intermarket correlations (bonds vs stocks vs gold vs USD-UUP vs et caetera….) they started to cease and broke down step by step since QE 1. So i follow but I don’t give a lot of credit to intermarket.
        Basically now my “GPS” , my “charting”, is based on fibonacci ratios , TA, and some bubble theorethical models (i.e. Sornette’s) overlapped to obtain a median model. Also I use Elliot but it is not my main info resource but only a “checker” to my projections, an element that verifies my projections.
        I also follow my intuition.
        I don’t pay not even 2 US cents on opinions like this one : ” of, the FED HAS to stop, they will destroy the dollar, they will destroy everything” …. yes, this might be true. But it’s not my business to follow the ethical issues behind the FED and FOR SURE I will not put my money where my ethics are! (because I will loose all my money). BOTS don’t have ethics, banksters don’t have ethics, why should I have any when I’m in the market ?!?! If they want to drive SPX 500 to 10.000 points, so be it!
        IT’S NOT MY PROBLEM! I just want to make money so when I enter in the market I just let all my ethics stuff and all my beliefs at the door and I get as technical as possible!

        The market doesn’t give 2 cents on my beliefs, they just want to take my money IF I BEHAVE LIKE A HUMAN IN A NON-HUMAN ENVIRONMENT (more than 75-80% of US market is made by BOTS …. you have seen on Monday when banks were closed what kind of market we’ve had, didn’t you? … sleepin’ like a baby!)
        But it will be my pleasure to rip money from robots as often as I can ! And for that I have to forget about all this stuff (“the market SHOULD be THIS way or THAT way”). The market is what it is.
        I just want to take as much money from banksters’ robots as I can! Thief-like! 😀

  26. the truth weighs in
    1) the market goes higher almost everyday.
    2)anybody waiting for a black swan event is nuts. we have had a ton of bad news everywhich way the market does not go down. lets give the Fed credit. They know what they are doing.
    3) I have been using Elliot Wave since Merril in the 80’s. and when I tell you I give Caldaro credit for trying to sort this out you have no idea. an old friend who was most educated at Elliot Wave and a great Liars Poke player told me. He said ” Truth its adifferent game now you just cant bring a knife to a gun fight”

    Caldaro great work thanks for the read and blog. I know most people here are bearish except for a few and most are waiting for a wave 4 confirmation. the pullback will happen very soon. maybe even start tomorrow.

  27. torehund says:

    Interesting and latest development of the dollar looks a bit bearflaggish(b-wave) here on the graph. To complete a long count abc it has to decline significantly. Mc Clellan projects a dollar bottom at the time of next debt ceiling. So is the resent dollar strength just some temporary short squeeze ?
    If this is going to happen the commodities will enjoy a multi month run from here, gold too. For a foreign investor like me I would loose on such a gold exposure as the dollar decline would eat it up. However being exposed to the small miners should theoretically be advantageous if they are located in the US.
    If the above scenario plays out and US stocks fall alongside the dollar it will be a sneaky way of deflating a country, you steal from those risk aversive folks with dollar in the bank, and you steal from the risk takers exposed to the market. Will Yellen make all have to contribute ? Well if so, gold is the way to go. It doesn’t look like this technically with gold making a weekly bear cross, but anything can happen in the markets.

  28. looks like minute iii of minor 3 of int. med. v of M-5 of P-III (just had to spell that all out 😉 )finished today?

  29. Again, out loud….

    1822-29 fits on multiple wave frameworks as I’ve outlined many times.

    So lets say we top at 1829, that puts Major 3 at 161% of Major 1, and about 562 points.

    562 x .236 for Major 4 is about 132 points, putting Major 4 target at about 1697 roughly

    So its coming folks… but in the meantime these end of Major 3 stock pops are a lot of fun!

    • Rancho says:

      Thanks ! Certainly helps to know there is some downside coming either ways ( major 4 or primary 4 )

    • ETF, I agree with the target zone, and the retrace %. It could even hit the .382 extension which would target 1600. So the target zone is 1700-1600, with an average of 1650ish, which is -if I recall correctly- something Tony has mentioned all along. I am of the believe that that we’re in P IV then though, regardless, the end is much closer than the beginning…

  30. Major 3 of Primary 3 in final stages….
    1829 is where Major 3 is 161.8% of Major 1 of Primary 3. 1822 is where we have a 555 point rally off 1267, sames as 666-1221 rally
    So 1822-1829, and many of you will recall I had 1829 back on Sept 14th as my target. We will then enter Major 4, then Major 5 of Primary 3. Getting close…

  31. $SPX $SPY $NUGT $AAPL %NFLX $UVXY, market update and trades for friday (within the blog’s remarks section):

  32. torehund says:

    We all live in a Yellen submarine, sing a long…

  33. StemSki says:

    I titled this one Key Inflection Point

    The question is “Is it?”

    Stock market is not rational. The only thing to try and remember is Elliott Wave says all impulses are 5-waves. Each wave at varying degrees will also have 5-waves. So in a bull market, Primary, Major, Intermediate, Minor, etc, will all be made up of 5-waves.
    Right now, we are in a 5th wave no matter how you are counting things. A decline will come sooner or later.
    My piece shows that we are at a key inflection point that could spell the end of Primary 3 or Major (III). Either way, a 4th wave is coming.

    Thanks for letting me ramble

  34. Another day of thanks, Tony! You’re the best! 🙂

  35. pcskier says:

    Hi tony, you ask earlier today: what would create fear and cause risk in this market? The answer is if the $tnx or 10 yr breaks out and keeps rising before the fed makes a decision. If $tnx can stay above its 20 week MA and get a 3 handle the run in equities will be over soon.

  36. Rancho says:

    Thank you Tony.

  37. Thanks Tony. What an action in the market last couple of days. I think 3rd waves are always strong irrespective of their degree. Are you seeing any divergences or any other similarities that you have seen in the past before a major top being put in. Specifically P3 top.
    If $SPX goes up another 100 points I am sure even bulls get scared and nervous. Because now they have no clue what is going on and why it is going up. On TV they are already nervous because most bullish estimates have been taken out and we are about to start a Santa Clause rally. That means we may even reach 2000 by year end. Just a novice trader thinking aloud.

    • tony caldaro says:

      SPX 2000?
      If we are having such a strong Cycle [1]
      Just imagine what Cycle [3] will look like.
      And that would likely mean one tiny problem: hyper inflation a couple of decades down the road.

    • peter, the santa rally would fit well with a b-wave of a larger abc-type of correction for P-IV, IMHO. I see the market reach the 1828 OEW pivot next week, and possible P-III end of next week. Would make sense time-wise. But time is secondary to price, so we’ll have to see. Then a few weeks for Major A of P-IV, a few weeks of Major B, which then fits around the santa rally time, and C should be fast and swift. Just my 2c

  38. radrian6 says:

    Hello Tony and all,
    Not much to talk about with SPX and RUT on course for Int. v. RUT is still about 1% below its previous high of 1123.26. The daily upper Bollinger Band is still near 1127 and fairly flat; the weekly upper BB is near 1129 and also flat so I still see 1125-1130 as a reasonable target for the current RUT uptrend.

    On the RUT daily chart, I can see the probability of a double top forming with any new high. Assuming RUT cannot push past 1130, the conventional indicators (MACD, Stochastic, RSI) should be displaying negative divergence, particularly the MACD. To confirm the double top, RUT would have to take out 1079. Assuming we get a significant correction at that point, the downside target would likely be near 1009. That’s a lot of speculation on my part but it’s not out of the question.

    • attitude928 says:

      Appreciate your analysis of the RUT radrian6…

    • jparkins10 says:

      Nice summary R.
      I believe we saw the start of Int iv for RUT today, and agree with your targets for Int v.
      The continuing relative weakness of RUT vs SPX confirms, in my mind, that Primary 3 is near completion.
      I’m also very surprised at how weak the McClellan is, with the markets at/near ATH’s, something’s going on under the hood.

      • radrian6 says:

        Hello J,
        I’m over my post limit but I wanted to confirm your observation of the McClellan Oscillator. It could be that the heavy traders are trying to get the most “bang for the buck” by propping up the stocks that move the indexes — the rally on November 8 is a good example. The indexes were up dramatically but the tape showed no sustained TICKs over 800 which indicates to me that there was no program buying — the buying was confined to a few issues that moved the markets. Maybe POMO dollars are not having a strong affect at this point — the strength is being diluted by ongoing selling and rotation.

      • Jparkins, You make me laugh (not in a make fun of you way at all). Reason: You have been very consistent on your message on how weak the McClellan in. You are right, of course (chart below). I too have observed, but the TRIX never rolled over yet, so I have not made any moves to the short side. Watching the VIX, the TRIX … and need to wait for a lower low and a lower high before I’ll short. Good luck all.$SPX&p=D&st=2012-08-02&en=(today)&id=p91390026488&a=318213161&listNum=7

    • torehund says:

      As with the small caps I follow everything confirms the lightness of participation, however some do nice retraces whilst other plummets. To go long here and hope for a nice bounce on those that haven’t retraced is a dangerous game (although its easy to be tempted). That one reduces short exposure is likewise a sign a decline is coming. Know yourself and you know the market.

  39. bouraq says:


    • torehund says:

      Bouraq, I agree on gold the trend is down and thats what one would want to bet on. The Yellen effect on dollar and gold maybe isn’t strong and long lasting. I expected the bounce on miners to be brisk and short lived but a bit longer for the miners. But I am not sure, have too look for developing weakness, some miners display textureless decline lately like Barrick gold. Could be short of the year if one gets it right.

  40. 5wavemodel says:

    Thanks Tony. I don’t think I’ve said that enough lately.

  41. I believe the FED cannot stop QE and their is no way out of this mess, therefore market will crash before QE ends. In addition If I was a wallstreet crook I would end the market at or near a high of day close over and over again to make everyone complacent and then kaboom – black swan event -way more to be made on way down than up, not to mention super quick money.

    • That’s about how it happened May 2010. Complacency was a lot like it is now. Come to think of it the pattern of the three months prior to the crash looked a lot like the one we have now.

    • buddyglove says:

      imanew…Yeah…good luck with that shorting in advance of a black swan event…trade much ???….Here’s a thought…Would it not be a lot easier to go with the flow and just trade the rally?….just sayin’

      • Buddyglove.. I agree don’t fight the trend and short term trades are great. But you couldn’t pay me to hold long overnite! I also agree trying to guess a TOP or trying to guess a black swan is nearly impossible. I also feel being long at or near all time highs is also very hazardous. This market is priced for perfection and bad VERY BAD NEWS overnight or intraday can leave a bull in a stampede of its own.

      • Aww comeon Buddy, lighten up. If you haven’t been all in short when a full blown market crash hits you just haven’t lived! Not that I’m suggesting anyone try it!

    • RDC says:

      I am thinking of buying short positions tomorrow. I believe market is sitting on top right now. At least a pullback is very much possible here.

      • torehund says:

        I know I have to bleed, bleed and bleed until I give up shorting altogether…then we have to twist our minds to buy what we don’t want…thats the game. And we know.

  42. Hi Tony

    Did you adjust the target for bull market high ?

    Also what is your target for this wave v up to end Primary III ? You think 1810 possible?

    Thank you

    • tony caldaro says:

      no bull market target until the SPX/DOW re-sync
      1810, 1828 or maybe higher

    • hucky2 says:

      Under John L. Person’s (PersonsPivot) system, next weeks resistance is at 1812 – interesting?
      His monthly is at 1850 – sounds a bit too enthusiastic for me.

      • mcmasoniam says:

        Don’t know why 1850 should be too enthusiastic for anyone. That’s what was said about 1600, 1700, and 1750:No Way! It can’s be! LOL! Sure, markets could roll over at any time, and you have to be quick to respond. Perhaps we’ll see a THROWOVER in the process. (Not an ‘overthrow’, okay?) This has been a great, great run to the upside! I want to see the 401k’s and savings of others continue to rise, and don’t wish a Bear move on them for anything, even though we all know it’s coming eventually. Just hope All go to cash with some good gains.

      • hucky2 says:

        His 1850 resistance is this month – 2 weeks left!

  43. Mr. CL- EE says:

    Thanks amigo

  44. llerias7 says:

    Is there a pivot higher than 1828?

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