wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening then new highs, DOW +71

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.8%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.7%. US index futures were lower, and the market gapped down at the open to SPX 1761. The SPX had closed at 1768 yesterday. Then within a few minutes the “buy the dip” group started a rally. The market rallied into the afternoon with only three point pullbacks along the way. Heading into 2PM the SPX made a new high at 1776. At 2PM the Budget deficit was reported lower: $91.6 bn v $120.0 bn. Then in the last hour of trading the SPX rose above the OEW 1779 pivot level, hitting 1782, and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.65%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.20%. Bonds gained 14 ticks, Crude rose 75 cents, Gold added $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 1779 and 1699 pivots, with resistance at the 1828 pivot. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims and the Trade deficit at 8:30, then FED vice chair Yellen testifies before the Senate in a confirmation hearing. After the close:

The market gapped down at the open for the second day in a row. And just like yesterday it did not manage to gather much selling. In fact, today, unlike yesterday, the market started rallying right after the open. In the last hour of trading the market hit new highs and closed there. It does appear the rally from last Thursday’s SPX 1746 Intermediate wave iv low has progressed: Minor 1 SPX 1773 [monday], Minor SPX 1761 [today’s low], and Minor 3 underway.

Short term support is now at the 1779 pivot and SPX 1746, with resistance at SPX 1810 and SPX 1826-1828. Short term momentum displayed a positive divergence at this morning’s low and ended the day quite overbought. The short term OEW charts dipped early then ended the day positive with the reversal level now SPX 1768. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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177 Responses to wednesday update

  1. Im not concerned about money anymore, Im concerned about the United States and this QE policy that doesn’t appear to be doing more than making the rich richer and further enslaving our children into an enormous unpaybale debt.

  2. jmoptions says:

    VIX made new low , lowest since last August. VIX also pierced through the lower BB. On past piercing of the lower BB, it typically reverses.

  3. gtoptions says:

    SPY ~ Daily Chart Technicals identical to 8/1. FYI
    Daily CCI/13 exploded, typical of blow-off or extreme overbought conditions, indicating a near term top will be in shortly. ~ JMO

  4. rc1269 says:

    a little color from credit land for those interested-

    like equities, it’s been mostly bid everyday for a while now. new issuance – which tends to be a good indicator of sentiment because it’s not reliant on dealer inventory – has been robust and traded pretty well. when a deal has initial price talk of +110-150 to the 10yr, for instance, it has often ended up pricing at +105-110 with a 4-6x oversub’d order book. we saw that as recently as last week.

    today, there are a number of pretty high quality deals in the market that are really struggling. surprisingly so. STT and a couple highly rated utilities, which both tend to be gobbled up and tucked away, are having trouble getting orders at the wide end of their initial price guidance.

    from my seat, nothing has really changed from last week in the fundamentals landscape. earnings were uninspiring, but so were there the last many quarters as well. it does feel like there’s some saturation and ambivalence at these levels.

    everyone has gotten long risk for a while now. bulls and bears alike. i’ll talk to other PMs who rant about QE, asset bubbles, blah blah… but then when you ask them how they’re positioned not a single one isn’t overweight – typically heavily – risk product. i don’t know what pushes appetitive to the next level at this point.

  5. Hi Tony

    When this bull market sometimes ends – what is your “probability” target for the next bear market ?
    Are we talking 500 SPX or 800-1000 or where do you think is the most likeley target ?

    Thank you

    • I am curious as to Caldaro’s answer. One must give Caldaro a lot of credit. Elliot’s theory has been very tough to apply in this market as always adjusting ones count daily or weekly has been insanity. Caldaro has done a great job and deserves real respect. I myself have stopped Elliot on US markets. very difficult.

    • ukmark62 says:

      I asked Tony a similar question a few days ago and he still believes in approx. 50% bear market due starting early 2014. So, we are probably talking about S&P 900. A few are saying we go down to around 500 based on a similar pattern occurring between 1966-1974 I believe.

      The dilemma would be that if we do go down to S&P 900, will there be a rally followed by a final drop to 500? I would trust Tony to get that call right more than wrong as and when it happens. (Although, right now a drop of any kind looks a remote possibility). Still I wouldn’t bet against Tony and his knowledge of OEW over a longer term horizon.

    • tony caldaro says:

      right now SPX 900-1000

  6. Thomas Crown says:

    Earning season is over, Yellen has confirmed QE forever and more, possibily even negative interest rates, as shown by last Friday’s reversal following the NFP, tapering should it ever happen, is now considered positive since it can only reflect a good and sound economy, no particular important dates in the short term horizon. So, all the news, and I should say, amazing good news, are in. What on earth is this market going to trade on in the next few weeks, besides Thanksgiving sales ? What positive surprise can possibly add fuel to this insane bull run, and by insane I don’t mean unjustified, I simply point out to the fact that the maximum correction since last November has been less than 5% ?

  7. Thomas Crown says:

    Has CN or Xavier or whatever his new handle was just disappeared shortly after announcing a Big Down a few days ago ?

    • tony caldaro says:

      do not recall any ‘big down’ recently
      only others using that term

    • Big Down set ups on 10/30 and market went sideways and Big Ups triggered on 11/8 … looking for 1826 SPX … playing as much golf as I can get in … getting cold here though – wearing two gloves and keeping them on through the entire round. I’ve lost three balls this week on the fairway to blowing leaves. Found a ball I lost Monday today – middle of fairway … go figure … sometimes you can be right and still lose … or you can be wrong but still have been right.

      • 16golfer says:

        Piker…played golf last Sunday on a sunny 65 degree day, but the leaves were so thick in some areas, me and my playing buddy declared “the leaf rule”. If in leaves and can’t find ball, no penalty for lost ball. lol. Watching for your big up 1826 target.

  8. jmoptions says:

    My wave count shows minor 3 potentially complete and in minor 4 now. Unless we are subdividing to minute waves.

  9. tuamotu says:

    Overthrow of the ending diagonal in the DOW ??? and …

    • 123.6% retrace of SPX 1576.09 (Oct ’07) to 666.79 is 1790.68. very doubtful it will hold again, but Daily RSI negative divergences abound: DOW Trans, DOW, NDX, SPX, a lethargic RUT, and VIX riding the Daily lower BolBand bottleneck. Of course the koolaid is sweet, despite all.

  10. bobhopium says:

    The Train has left the station………….No Sellin’ with QUeen Yellen.

  11. mjtplayer says:

    Hey Tony,

    1,779 pivot cleared, off to 1,810 for minor 3?

    Regarding your statement on not paying the banks interest of excess reserves, they can’t stop paying interest, the interest paid (even very low) is what keeps those reserves out of the system. If no interest paid, it goes into the system = inflation. QE is a brilliant game of currency creation without overall inflation, due to most of the QE staying in the banking system and used as leverage to boost stock prices. The bond purchase push int rates artificially low, boosting home prices and bond prices. It’s targeted inflation: stocks, homes, bonds – but not goods and services or wages. It’s brilliant, in the short-term. In the long-term the excess reserves will either be lent out (inflation) or drained out of the system (deflation), but the inflated assets would collapse. So, inflation will happen, but not until excess reserves are released or Dollars come home from other countires. Once inflation begins, the Fed is really in a hole.

    • tony caldaro says:

      SPX 1810 is the next resistance level, 1828 the next pivot
      Ben was always disappointed that more of the bank reserves did not go into the economy.
      If they had, we would not have had QE’s 2 and 3.
      Now with a bloated balance sheet the FED is only going to react to the economy rather than lead it.
      Maybe Yellen is a bit more impatient, with her “strongly” working towards a “robust” economy.
      Would like to see Warren nominated for vice chair, but it will probably be little Timmy

      • mjtplayer says:

        Elizabeth Warren for vice chair?! God help us…

        Maybe she would break-up the big banks, which is well overdue. But her big gov’t tax and spent approach is more of what we don’t need. Here’s an idea, how about the Fed back away, we get the much needed recession to clean-out the system of bad debts/leverage/speculation and then let the free-market re-build the economy as the gov’t watches from the sidelines??

  12. H D says:

    Range 1,780.22 – 1,790.80 BOTs don’t care who’s on TV

  13. ISINCODE says:

    Greesnspan ““Irrational exuberance”, Yellen “Equity prices have risen robustly”. Close but no cigar. Give her a bottle of wine and get the real truth on how she feels. lol

    • bobhopium says:


    • tommyboys says:

      No “irrational exuberance” in this market…just run-of-the-mill bull market sentiment.

      • rc1269 says:

        AAII Bullish readings:
        9/20/2007: 39.24%. less than one month from the bull market high
        8/3/2000: 41.30%. less than one month from the bull market high
        Today: 39.2%

      • tommyboys says:

        These number ebb and flow each week. Those dates in time are meaningless. We counter intuitively need a substantial amount of bulls in a bull. 35-45% is perfect on an ongoing basis.

      • tommyboys says:

        Further there have been MUCH higher bull numbers in both bear and bull markets. Just last week bulls were 6 pts higher at 45%…its a soft science.

      • rc1269 says:

        i agree with all of your follow up comments. all of which render meaningless your initial reference to the AAII number as being supportive of no irrational exuberence
        that was entirely my point
        so we agree that’s not strong data. what then are you using to corroborate your view that there is no irrational exuberence?

      • tommyboys says:

        Dude you gotta start thinking outside the box taking a view from the stratosphere. There are so many variables – human emotion not the least – affecting prices – thus the soft science. I think decades of experience and prodigious versatile reading are really the only teachers. We can be told things over and over and can be taught “facts” but until we experience things we really can’t learn. It’s not about facts and numbers its about learning how to think and about how the world works. I’ll recommend a great current book on the subject. Pick up “Investing; The Last Liberal Art” (Robert Hagstrom). You’ll thank me later.

  14. rc1269 says:

    on whether equities have run too much…

    “traditional valuation metrics, such as ‘price equity ratios’ suggest that the market is not overvalued.”

    i assume she meant “price/earnings ratios”…

  15. Yellen seems smart, but not sure yet she sees the whole picture. Anyhow, Tony, do you see minor iv in today on the dip? Thanks.

  16. rc1269 says:

    Yellen: “limited evidence of reaching for yield”

    absolutely clueless. makes me feel warm and fuzzy having somebody so out of touch with reality hold the most powerful economic position in the world.

    how hard is it to find a candidate who’s actually worked a day in their life? it’s like hiring Stephen Hawking to pilot a space shuttle; he knows everything there is to know about space and yet is totally unqualified for the job.

    ‘we’re in big trouble’ is the thought that goes through my head when i listen to her speak

  17. manunidhi21 says:


    Do you think she can lead the world ?
    or this hearing is a white-wash.

  18. gary61b says:

    The TF (rut) is looking more like the 1123 was top of p3. If the count,we had abc for A down to 1075 and a abc for B up to 1111 and now the start of C? with a break below 1100 should raise the probability.

  19. 1782 is interesting… DID YOU KNOW??

    1782 is a 138% fib of the 2002 lows to 2007 highs bull cycle??


    This bull cycle is now at 138% of the last one….

    worth watchin 1782

  20. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    What a crowd.
    I’m Calling a top just for giggles from the crew. LOL 😉

  21. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony !

    “The Wilshire 5000 is again selling at a premium to the entire US economy.
    The market is now more over valued than in 2007.””

    Can you explain this index and impact ?

    • tony caldaro says:

      This index represents the 5000 largest companies in the US.
      It’s total market cap is currently $18.995tn, while the entire US GDP is only $16.9tn.
      Stocks are discounting future earnings at a greater level than 2007.

      • manunidhi21 says:

        Shukriya Tony,
        Further “””wave iv low has progressed: Minor 1 SPX 1773 [monday], Minor SPX 1761 [today’s low], and Minor 3 underway””””

        So a strong reversal below 1768 will be marked as Int. v (Primary III) or just Minor 3 ?

      • JK1987 says:

        Is there a fund for trading Wilshire 5000?

  22. bobhopium says:

    Thanks Tony and Greetings to All.
    Here are my thoughts for my own trading purposes…I hope some find this useful.
    It is my view that we are about to embark on the Euphoric (and most profitable) stage of the current bull mkt cycle. All my charts from hourly to weekly are screaming bull and I am still expecting a runaway train into mid Jan and possibly spring. Momentum indicators will be useless during this phase and this will leave many traders watching instead of participating, this is just how the market works of course, and likes to make its big moves with an empty train. I will continue this view until the market proves otherwise.
    In summary imo the exuberance is about to get irrational…GL to us all.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Last I checked it is still a bull market since 2009.
      Whether we get a 2000 blow off or something in between 2007 and 2000, where we are now, is debatable.
      Thus far fifth waves have been weak. Maybe this one will be different?

      • chrisk44342 says:

        I just don’t see this from a context standpoint. Even if you view the market dispassionately, with no wave analysis, the market is overbought, at or near the top of the BB on every time frame. Several momentum oscillators, like the EW oscillator, reflects that this (where we are now) is likely the end of a primary wave 3. You don’t start euphoric rallies from this kind of level.

    • bobhopium says:

      Chrisk/Tony thanks for reply…Chrisk, I have seen many strong rallies start from “this kind of level”. indicators are fine for sideways mkts and normal trending but for the rally i am expecting they will not help. They will go ob and stay ob and if you are gonna wait for oversold you may well miss out, also imo oscillators are one of the biggest cause’s of traders loss. Have a look at these “bare”charts and ask yourself… does this really look anything like a top? GL to us all.
      Dow daily

      S&P weekly

  23. 2nd and LAST post of the day to respect Caldaro 3 post rule. Although I have had the worst count in history as I have to continue to adjust and to be truthful it has not worked, my most reliable indicator the Arms index is getting more overbought on the short term averages and VIX is showing an extreme level of complacency. I feel a downturn is IMMINENT. Good luck to all today. Kudos to those who are trying to keep a count in this market I am no longer one of them.

  24. M1 says:

    Same ideas than last week.
    Expecting NDX cycle 3 ending at any time. NDX cycle wave 4 (+25% drop) should follow.
    Here are the numbers again.
    TIME: Cycle wave 1 was abt 5 years (Oct 8th, 2002- Oct 31, 2007).
    Cycle wave 3 is already abt 5 years (Nov 21st, 2008- xx Nov or Dic, 2013 ?)
    Length: Cycle wave 3 is already 1.654 times cycle wave 1 (CW1=1444points; CW3=2389points).

  25. Caldaro tough crowd I read over night. First off I thank you for your dedication to people you don’t even know. I commend for sticking to the theory that so many have deemed an tough one to apply. Maybe today ends the rally maybe not. I would think God only knows.

  26. 777daimon says:

    I have made some calculations and I want to share those with you all.

    primary I = 1370.58 – 666.79 = 703.79 no. of points advance P.I
    primary II = from 1370.58 to 1074.77
    primary III = IF 1.618 * primary I (703.79) = 1138.73 assumed no. of points for P.III
    so: low of P.II 1074.77 + 1138.73 = 2213.5 (P.III at 1.618*P.I)
    P.IV based on alternation law should be a flat, because P.II was a deep wave
    P.V should make it at least to 2500 if not higher targets (3000-4000).

    Considering the calculations presented until now :
    Why do you even dare to consider the case of a potential truncation right in the very body of a wave P. III (the very core of a bull market) ???

    These are common-sense questions, not crazy questions!

    • There is no law that says P3 should be fibo 1.618 of P1. Why not P1=P3?
      With regard to P4 the P2 was an elongated flat and P4 should be a zigzag. P4 normally retrace all of major 5.

      Regards Sverker

      • I believe that P2 was a 23% correction, so that qualifies as deep (20%+ decline is generally considered a bear market). It is the depth of P2 that is the most important consideration in estimating the severity of P4. Since P2 stretched out over time quite a bit, that gives it a flatter look but does not alter it’s depth.

    • I agree that people should not be shorting, but it is not a given that P3 = 1.618 * P1. I hope you are right, but we need to see the A-D ratio strengthen for the market (even the S&P) to show that kind of strength IMHO.

    • 777daimon says:

      @ sverker and george:
      ”There is no law that says P3 should be fibo 1.618 of P1. Why not P1=P3?”
      but the P.I = P.III level was already taken (yesterday at 1778.56 in cash) and (until now) I just can’t see strong reasons why an animalic P.IV should appear out-of-the-blue ….
      the 1.618 * X ratio I’ve seen it occuring in this context (waves 1 compared with waves 3 at different levels, not only primary waves) in about 70-75 % of cases.
      Nothing is SURE in this world. It’s all about probabilities.

      I was just amazed how, generally speaking, people feel a “natural urge” to short during a 3’rd up wave …. as psychological fact it’s something amazing… like they naturally are created to fight the laws of nature ….

      anyway, this is my 3’rd comment today here and I’m a gentleman. I won’t be able to respond to further answers. Sorry.

      p.s. Tony, thanks for what you are doing. You are a great technician on waves for me.

    • jmoptions says:

      How about per Tony’s count we are in major 5, Int. 5, Minor 3 of Pri 3 By your prediction, the remaining minor 3 to minor 5 will advance more than 400 pts in the SPX, all in a 5th major of a 5th int. Probabalities are very unlikely. It appears to me your wish for P3 to go up forever is getting in the way of the actual wave count. Projecting waves only at the Primary level and not down to all the sub waves is a mjor problem in your thesis.

    • pointed that count out many many weeks ago…. about time someone else did. Primary 3 is not likely to equal Primary 1… if anything, Major 3 of Primary 3 would end at the same distance or close at Primary 1…. that makes more sense.

  27. Anonymous says:

    Tony dead on again.

    The IMW chart look pretty niche here ==> , these dips on the market get less and less. Fat santa clause rally here already? Hmmmm

    yellen probably keep throwing money into the wishing well….. all these talk of taper and nothing has been done yet.

    • Anon..I am confused..Why do you say “Tony dead on again”, That article is mega bullish, but Tony has been calling for start of Pri 4 imminently, or at least before the end of 2013?

    • chrisk44342 says:

      That’s clever. They named their site “The Sentiment Trader”. I bet that must really irritate Sentiment Trader. I smell a lawsuit! One can only hope they’re more accurate than Sentiment Trader (:

  28. radrian6 says:

    Hello Tony and all,
    RUT appears to be tracking SPX with regard to wave count but is still short of a new high. I mentioned in my weekend post that the uptrend cycles are shortening and I believe the current price action supports that. The IHS target for the RUT is near 1127; the daily upper Bollinger Band is near 1127; the weekly upper BB is near 1129 — it’s therefore reasonable to expect a marginal new high for the RUT prior to a correction. With the cycles shortening, RUT should reach the momentum high for this cycle within a few days.

  29. torehund says:

    I find the NAS to be ripe for a correction, just can’t see it advancing much longer with the long abc finished. Well stocks makes one humble.
    A peculiar event is the surge of 2 junior uranium miners urge and usec, the pops were hard and lasted. Its a market of individual stocks, but I would want that wave 4 to be done with before experimenting with any small cap, maybe thats wrong ?

  30. pooch77 says:

    So we sell the Yellen statement tomorrow only to btd and hit new highs next week

  31. Tony, you keep trying to fit one or the other counts and market keeps doing what it wants to do? With all due respect, you are so obsessed with your counts that you are missing the forest for the trees more often than not.

  32. Time and again Tony’s posts act as the wall of worry in this bull market. All it took was one post and all the bears came out of hibernation –

    • budfox9450 says:

      My 2 Cents…I think, the OEW site presents
      a great value – to students of the US SP500
      index. I also see, there is great investment
      value, in the OEW Primary, and Major pivots.
      Maybe, not for traders. But, for serious investors
      who desire to grow their 401k, or IRA. Consider,
      when Tony 1st plotted the Pimary 2 low. How
      far has the market come since the 3 qtr of 2011.
      To summarize. It is what Mr. Caldaro charts
      say – that matter most…..If you get locked into
      trading – the being wrong is part of the risk,
      to fast money….Bud

  33. Thomas Crown says:

    In a very futile attempt to level the field in the face of the utmost and absurd bullish sentiment on this blog and elsewhere, two very interesting pieces from Hussman and Dalio:

  34. blackjak100 says:

    More overvalued right now than in 2000…according to these metrics yes. There are some good points in this argument, but don’t necessarily agree with him.

  35. Very nice commentary (as usual), Tony. Thank you!

  36. bouraq says:

    Ellipse… my new toy

    • aultraman says:

      Mr. Bouraq,

      Do you mind doing an ellipse on RUT? Very interest in your opinion. Thanks!

      • bouraq says:

        It doesn’t work on RUT Aultraman. At least not yet. As I said not all tops are ellipse. Maybe in a couple of months the picture will change and I can fit an ellipse there but for that it needs months of sideways action.

  37. Caldaro would the top being in right now take you by surprise and what percent do you give that we have seen the highs for the year?

  38. Wow wallstreet has every tool in their arsenal to assist in their mission they use Premarket/Futures/Intraday/Aftermarket oh and don’t forget the news. I learn everyday from being here and reading. I’ve noticed when certain people post a zillion times a day to do the opposite of them because emotions and or euphoria are at work. They are a great contrarian indicators.

  39. Jennifer says:

    Thanks for the update Tony!

    Dow, S&P end at record highs in rally led by Macy’s:

  40. tuamotu says:

    Thanks Tony,
    If the Dow is the bellwether,
    If wave 5 can not extend 16081,
    If the Dow is in an ending diagonal,
    well do you think that SPX can do a truncation again ?

  41. thanks for the update Tony! I am glad to see the minor 1 and minor 2 I thought I saw yesterday played out as suggested. Reading the market’s waves correctly is always very rewarding. Thanks for all knowledge you’ve provided me with so far to do so. Same targets as I mentioned yesterday remain active IMHO.

    ps: glad I dipped my big toe in FB y’day😉

    • Yes. Congrats Soul. I was waiting for falling diagonal (C wave) to complete. But today’s move upis probably the first wave of next leg up. So I will get a chance to buy when it dips on wave 2. Look at my yesterday’s comments on your $GOOG chart and let me know what you think.

      • Peter, sorry I missed your comment on my GOOG chart yesterday. I agree, 1060-1080 can be it too. That will be the 1.618x extension of P-I measured from P-II. The 1.764-2.000x extensions are merely text book, not set in stone. Given that P-III “only” hit the 1.236x extension and not the typical 1.382x or even 1.618x extension, it may mean the P-V will also “fall short” one fib extension level and only hit the 1.618x extension, which is at around ~$1055. Time will tell, but note that the daily R1 and R2 are now at $1100 and $1170, which is right around and in the 1.764-2.000x extension area.


  42. JK, Can you tell me what was the starting point of minor 1 of int. med. v. I am interested in how many points minor 1 has traveled. Also you are saying that minor 3 has traveled 22 points and mnor 5 will travel more than 22 points if target is 1828. That means minor 5 is greater than minor 3. So minor 1 might have traveled less than than 3. Thanks,

    • I see the following extensions, using txt book extensions:

      minor 1 from 1746 to 1773: 33 points
      minor 2 down to 1761: 12 points (nice ~38% retrace)
      minor 3 up to 1761 + 1.382 to 1.618x 33 = 1806-1814 (right around the 1810 resistance tony identified this weekend!)
      minor 4 retraces ~38%.
      minor 5 to 1761 – 1.764x-2.000x 33 = 1819 – 1827 (right at the 1826-1828 area Tony identified this past weekend)

      now that the SPX has traded and closed above 1780, the “80/20 rule” comes into play IMHO, which the fib extensions support.

  43. Thanks Tony. Assuming if $SPX target is $1830 that is another 50 points to the upside. That is another 3% rally. I see that $FB, $LNKD just completed correction and started their next leg up.
    Both have a C wave look of falling diagonal. To reach their previous highs both have to move up by approximately 15% from today’s price. May be by the time P3 ends these high flying stocks will form nice double tops.

  44. rc1269 says:


  45. RDC says:

    Thank you Tony!
    Market will not make a new high tomorrow. VIX will also spike.

    • JK1987 says:

      minor 4 of int. med. v: underway with negative divergences.

    • rc1269 says:

      futures seem to be liking Yellen’s comments quite a bit so far. selloff might be tough to come by

    • jparkins10 says:

      Upper BB for the weekly is ES 1785, need room for minor v, so I agree, think iii has topped

    • Hi RDC, not sure if market will put in a higher high tomorrow but I see a 5 wave up pattern from today’s lows. Could be the end of minor iii or maybe a little more in the morning. Can’t see much sense as a long in hanging on for the minor v or int V of major 5 in the next couple of days. My view remains this market is priced for perfection and just about anything would set it tumbling from here. Time will tell what and when. I haven’t seen so much kool-aid swallowed since 1999, as far as market sentiment goes. Unbelievable how many people are saying the market will go up essentially forever and never correct. And the chorus of “it’s different this time” is coming from everywhere. Just amazes me. People are people I guess. Nothing really ever changes, just the faces.

  46. JK1987 says:

    Tony Thanks
    Congratulation you made the right call again.🙂

    minor 3 new high with negative divergence.

    minor 1 of int. med. v: 1775.22
    minor 2 of int. med. v: 1760.64 with positive divergence.
    minor 3 of int. med. v: 1782
    minor 4 of int. med. v: underway
    minor 5 of int. med. v of Primary 3 target: 1826-1828.
    bullish inverted head and shoulders target 1828.

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