Veterans day update

SHORT TERM: no Gov’t, no Banks = no market movement, DOW +21

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, but the market opened two points below Friday’s SPX 1771 close. In the opening minutes the market dipped to SPX 1768, then bounced to 1773 by 10:00. After that the market was done for the day as it remained in a two point trading range into a SPX 1772 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude added 45 cents, Gold slipped $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1699 and 1680 pivots, with resistance at the 1779 and 1828 pivots. Tomorrow: no scheduled on the economic front.

Today the market opened slightly lower, dipped to three points under Friday’s close, then bounced to two points above Friday’s close. After that the market went into a two point trading range for the next 5.5 hours, of the 6.5 hour trading day. Today was a total non-event. So what was different about today compared to nearly all other trading days. The Government, the Bond market and the Banks were all closed for the holiday. Seems fairly clear what has turned a market of stocks prior to the 1980’s, into the stock market of today. Just my opinion of course.

Short term support remains at SPX 1746 and SPX 1730, with resistance at the 1779 pivot and SPX 1810. Short term momentum backed off some from quite overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1765. Best to your trading when all the market movers return tomorrow.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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97 Responses to Veterans day update

  1. RDC I assume the way to trade VIX is VXX which is down everyday? and down today indicates a rally into the close?

  2. RDC says:

    Next higher wave for S&P is coming now …

  3. pooch77 says:

    Hour left,close green now

  4. Caldaro spot gold in 3rd wave of larger 5th. I have zero read on S&P with Elliot but gold and oil clear.

  5. hucky2 says:

    Is this still Int4 or are we in minor 2 of int 5?

  6. bobhopium says:

    My trading thoughts update…if useful to anyone.
    Back-test of neckline, expecting this move to complete in todays session…GL to us all.

  7. Caldaro the market has been very slow for 2 weeks and stocks look poor one day and very good the next. Is it this type of inconsistency that marks at turning point? to me it seems like a change in character but I have not had a clear count without extensions in a year or so.

  8. torehund says:

    Is there already some stagflation ?, vegetables from the store have risen considerably..
    In the end it leads to lesser demand and deflation, looking at box shippers decline there are signs less is shipped. The cure is lower prices, not good for Yellen to meet this emerging challenge.

  9. somebody mentioned the VIX yesterday. looking into it I see VIX being supressed as nobody expects VOl in the next few months which is why people see to short the futures. Any thoughts out there?

  10. The market: It’s all about the Fed (see latest). Tony’s weekend update also commented on the “new” markets we live in.

    • bobhopium says:

      Jedi…yes it’s always “all about” something, but I have found it best to ignore the day to day noise and not try to second guess my charts.

    • perversionofthemean says:

      Jedi – what makes your charts a sell? I see lopsided sentiment and P4 looming, but I have no outright sell signals. Just curious. Thanks.

  11. torehund says:

    G-Miners have made 2 motivated waves up the last two days, they may cut the 3rd(to make it ugly) or let it go to 3 rd. Inflection point right here.

  12. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPX ~ Bollinger Band & Keltner Channel Observation
    Lower BB has risen into the lower Keltner Channel, while the upper BB is dropping fast and nearing a break into the upper KC. Looking for a consolidation before the next breakout, up or down. GLTA

  13. H D says:

    DOW has HH and SPX LL from yesterday, work that into your TA 😯

  14. bobhopium says:

    For my own trading purposes, here is my view… maybe off use to others.
    Looking for int-day H&S on Spoos(unconfirmed) to playout down to 1756/57 and add to longs.
    Still feel this market will start to Run into end of year…GL to us all.

  15. With nobody buying any protection the chance of a roll over or sell off is close to zero. My thoughts are Volume increased on the drop last thursday which one would think is a important direction change but the rise on firday even though on low volume was enough to take away any fear. Again you will need a catastophic event to swing the charts negative.

  16. torehund says:

    small cracks emerge, maybe a small rollover today ??

  17. H D says:

    GM all, they opened SPX right on our 1764 pivot and we have rallied 5 handles into balance from yesterday. Looks like the bots r doing their thing again.

    • 777daimon says:

      yes, Ted is right.

      related to my comment posted here yesterday, it’s not necessary SPX 500 to go down to 1753-1756 for the lower degree wave 2 within this wave 5. It can be also a flat (like it can be observed also on futures 1h chart for SPX 500 during the last 36 hours).

      Nobody can negate the huge importance of this moment considering the R lines in all US indices (SPX, DOW, NYSE, others). But if this long time (11 to 29 and to 56 years) are trespassed you will see something truly great happening in the US stock market – the nasty sideways developed since 2000 until now will be left aside and we will step in a truly new great era 18 to 36 years of bull market).

      Why should anybody stick to a negative bias based on destruction-reconstruction cycle? We must left aside this type of thinking and evolve to new levels.
      You all here have enough brain to understand one thing: a peak in production capacities that generates low inflation/ low demand secondly generates deflation. This will generate social unrest, due to unemplyment component. Such peaks in production are resolved in 2 ways (or at least 2 ways) : inflation (monetary induced) – that still needs to be generated also by velocity of money / that can be realized when the US companies will increase the US citizens salaries – OR WAR!
      A big f***ing world-wide war that should minimize the economical overcapacities (human resources and industrial capacities) in order to enter in a new economical cycle of growth.

      And I don’t like war.
      Any sane person would not like war. If somebody likes war is invited by me to consult a psychiatrist and resolve his issues.
      So: after all those QE’s USA has to do one pro-cyclical thingy: RISE SALARIES!
      If corporates are only cost-cutting, cutting, cutting they will ultimately observe that there’s no thing left to cut (maybe filling for 11 chapter 😀 ) … invest in human capital (trainings) , rise salaries and you will have a new rising cycle !
      All those accounting hocus – pocus related to EPS levels (i.e. shares buy-backs by companies or other means) are not helping US economy!

      Top 5000 or 10000 US companies should make an alliance and action in a concerted way by rising salaries in US!

      There you are! 🙂 You all in US have the solution to exit this historical moment! 🙂

      • 777daimon says:

        one more interesting thing:
        take a look at the weekly chart for 10yUS bonds.
        the 10yUSbonds are barely resisting at 200 DMA because there’s a huge money outflow from bonds …. where do you think those money go to? in cash? In us bank cash deposits? :D? LOL!
        I’ll tell you where they go: in stocks. Those are the money that will sustain the stock market trip to 2050+ on SPX 500…
        I’ve worked in a bank and I know the drill: in Nov-Dec period of year it’s all about bonuses…that’s why this period is call “grand window dressing” for investment banks … today it’s almost mid-November …. shorting now might let you without …. underwear shorts 🙂 lol!

      • bman64 says:

        Wow you are the complete opposite of The Yen Guy. GL to you 🙂

  18. Not much to say about a boring day like today, but I would be surprised if SPX doesn’t put in at least a slightly higher high tomorrow. There must be a jillion stops just above the prior highs. Would be surprised if they are not run, even if the run doesn’t hold. I’m actually expecting a gap up tomorrow morning above 1775.22 at the open, then we should find out what’s what. Probably a fairly quick gap fill. That would provide some great price discovery.

    • blackjak100 says:

      agreed…still expecting a marginal higher high between 1776-1780 and then a reversal. Today could be considered a small degree fourth wave with a fifth wave to come. Since the small degree wave 3 was shorter than 1, max upside is 1781.95.

  19. Caldaro I think it would literally take a catastrophic event to have this market correct for several weeks. Probability of a drops happens when momentum turns. This does not seem to be the case. Bonds, Metals, Treasuries as asset classes are all losing relative to stocks. Where else is there to go? this is why most Elliot have had their counts totally wrong the last several year and myself included. But like the say nobody rings the bell at the top do they?

  20. Thanks Tony, I drank some beer, grilled some burgers, threw the football around and then remembered peace

  21. Keep in mind investors took tons of money out of the market from 2006-2012, and now are starting to come back in, also rotating out of bonds. Small cap biotechs and 3d printing sector are hot, so you just go with the flow. Its a new era of biotechnology unlike anything seen in our lifetimes. ONVO, CUR a few I mentioned here recently doing well but will probably keep doing well for a few years to come

    Sure, the SP 500 index of 500 boring stocks will correct…. but its still a market of individual stocks

    Basing your daily work on the basket is rather lazy and mundane…

    • torehund says:

      ETF trader, many bios have been correcting since 2011, some are sky high. My feel is they are crumbling further the ones that are already low, and the good stocks are by all means overvalued. Even though some are historically cheap they still smoulder. Feels like there is a lack of buyers as selling isn’t heavy.

      • torehund says:

        Don’t get swayed into the optimism there will always come a time when folks abhor these stocks, thats when you buy. I have many years of small cap pharma experience and have endured lots. They are the funniest thing to own until they crash. So be careful up here.

    • torehund says:

      maybe I am too pessimistic 🙂

  22. tuamotu says:

    Again thanks Tony,
    So on the DOW: wave 1= 590 pts. wave 3 = 560 pts. We should then expect a maximum
    of 16082 (15522 + 560) ??? Ending diagonal ?

    • tony caldaro says:

      have been asked and answered that question before … yes

      • In the last 7 or 8 trading days the Dow has been regaining some of it’s former relative strength and, if Int 5 of major 5 (for the S&P) does not truncate, I think the ED for the Dow will be nullified and a more respectable wave 5 of 5 will transpire for the Dow . I also wonder if Tuamotu meant Wave 1 = Wave 3 = 590, not Wave 3 = 560. Right off hand, I don’t know what Fib relationship = 560/590, as would be implied by Tuamotu’s post.

    • tuamotu says:

      To goeorgesschaeffer: wave 3 can not be the shortest wave. That’s all.

  23. bouraq says:

    Consolidating charts:

  24. Thanks Tony. I really quite didn’t get what do you mean by
    “The Government, the Bond market and the Banks were all closed for the holiday. Seems fairly clear what has turned a market of stocks prior to the 1980′s, into the stock market of today”.

    Are you saying banks and governments are manipulating the markets. Can you elaborate on this? Thanks.

  25. hooloo1957 says:

    what’s really weird tony is that the commitment of traders report says the commercials who are the banks are gigantic Lee short. So what does it all mean? Thanks for your work greg

  26. Jennifer says:

    Thanks Tony!
    Very slow day on Wall Street on Veterans Day:

  27. Caldaro great work. Through all my charts I see NO bearish arguments on msrket

  28. Thanks, Tony! Well, POMO back to tomorrow so guess more up. As you said, it’s all about the government and the banksters.

    • tony caldaro says:

      That’s hardly great news for the investors who have poured $22 billion to small-cap mutual funds and ETFs this year, on pace to be the biggest year for inflows ever.

  29. Quote of the year: ‘Seems fairly clear what has turned a market of stocks prior to the 1980′s, into the stock market of today.’

    Sad but so true.

  30. Thanks tony; your opinion is exactly the type of extra info that keeps me following your updates. Though your observation is sad but true, I agree . From a TA perspective, should we say; never short a dull market!?

    • JK1987 says:

      Tony Thanks.

      soul, see you entered SSO 93.50 today, SSTO indicator buy signal?
      I think Tony is looking for higher major 5 of P3.
      “If the SPX clears the OEW 1779 pivot range, then the next resistance would be at SPX 1810 and SPX 1826-1828.”

      • Daily SSTO’s not really giving a strong buy signal, but had more, IMHO, a typical 4th wave set-up. Also long, since Friday was a clear 5 waves up. I was sick Friday, otherwise I would have bought then… This could of course have been all of int. med. v… but I don’t think so. 5th of 5th waves are tricky, so trade nimble… break above 1779 will put the 80/20 “rule” in play IMHO, where 80s will lead to next higher 20s (e.g. 1780->1820ies). No guarantees of course 😉

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