thursday update

SHORT TERM: too much good news, DOW -153

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.6%. Europe opened higher, rallied on the ECB rate cut, then ended -0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, rallied on the ECB news, then weakened when Q3 GDP was reported higher than expected: +2.8% v +2.5%. Also at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 336K v 340K. The market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 1770 close, rallied to 1775 in the opening minutes, then started to pullback. Around 11:30 the SPX hit 1756, a recent support zone, then rallied to 1765 by 12:30. Then the market started to pullback further. At 2:30 the SPX hit 1749, bounced to 1754 by 3:00 when Consumer credit was reported higher: $13.7bn v $13.6bn, then headed south again. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1746, then closed at 1747.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.90%. Bonds gained 8 ticks, Crude slipped 50 cents, Gold slid $11, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1699 and 1680 pivots, with resistance at the 1779 pivot. Tomorrow: monthly Payrolls and PCE prices at 8:30, Consumer sentiment at 10AM, then a speech from FED chairman Bernanke at 3:30PM.

The market opened higher today, retested the all time highs at SPX 1775, and then sold off. At the end of the day the market had declined from a high of SPX 1775 to 1746, and closed at 1747. The last time the market experienced this type of decline, without a gap down opening, was May 22nd. Then the SPX put in an uptrend high at 1687, sold off to 1649, and closed at 1655 all in one day. Near the close we updated the SPX/DOW charts. The DOW charts suggest a potential Primary III high occurred this AM. The SPX charts are a bit more complicated, but “at least” Minor c of Int. iv/d certainly appears to be underway. Keep in mind we use the DOW as a bellwether, and this market has been in an index trifurcation for a few months.

Short term support is now at SPX 1730, with resistance at SPX 1753-1757 and SPX 1765-1769. Short term momentum sold off after today’s negative divergence, ending the day at extremely oversold. The short term OEW charts turned negative early and ended the day negative, with the reversal level at SPX 1762. Monthly payrolls tomorrow best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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183 Responses to thursday update

  1. llerias7 says:

    Too much talk about POMO…sometimes there is no correlation with the mkt price…already came down hard in POMO days and spike up in days with no POMO! I suspect they keep some stach/$ apart for the days ahead, so they keep ammunition enough to move things around!

    A target above 1840´s is plausible with Santa rally!…

  2. Enjoy the weekend everbody. Busy cleaning this weekend maybe throw away my Pretcher books . LOL.. CALDARO nice job this week appreciate your blog sir.

  3. torehund says:

    good weekend to Tony and all on Board.

  4. waddaguess says:

    Looks like impulse off the lows…again.

  5. jmoptions says:

    If this is P4, then rallies will be sold. Starting today or Monday.

    • ISINCODE says:

      I agree JM. This sure looks a lot like Oct 2, 3 and 4th. Even hitting the weekly high on the last hour with a sell off coming on the following Monday the 7th leading to much deeper decline. This time it may keep going deeper? With the POMO almost 4-5 x times daily today they must have worried what effect the jobs report would have had? Monday should be interesting with no POMO. Sucker punch today? we will see next week? Have a good weekend all.

  6. tuamotu says:

    will it work again ?

  7. Line in the sand is IWM 109.

  8. mjtplayer says:

    Below is this month’s manipulation schedule, sorry “open market operations” schedule. Today, Nov 8th is the largest POMO day for the entire month of Nov. Gee, I wonder why stocks are up…

    Next week is pretty light on the POMO, with zero on Monday (down day?). The next large POMO day is Monday the 18th, then Thursday the 21st marking a large POMO week where the Fed is buying every day all that week. Down next week, up the following? Thanksgiving week is also very light, with no POMO Wed or Friday before and after Turkey Day.

  9. I must take notice on a lazy friday afternoon to give an ATTA BOY to a couple of people on this blog. Great work to TOMMYBOY who has been on the mark and also RDC with his call on the VIX. If you are a bear today is a complet take the air out of you unless we get last min fireworks. With Bernanke at 330 it looks we will wipe out all of our losses yesterday.

  10. The amount of time and angst here used up on a basket of 500 stocks is almost funny folks. AT the end of the day, what matters is if you own shares in a company that has a bright future and can grow and increase shareholder value. Trading around the SP 500 index in every squiggle is a suckers game

    Just had to get that off my chest

    meantime… should b e in Major wave 4 of Primary 3 but I trade stocks to make money, and forecast for exercise my brain… but I do not trade futures or the indexes…

    Whatever the count is, this bull market has alot alot higher to go either way based on the prior 9 year cycle trough in 2009…. too much technology and change to ignore, and Biotech is in a new era… this is a great time to be an investor in companies… with bright futures

    Best all

    • tommyboys says:


      • No offense taken tommyboy. great job on your point. I have been doing this many years and lately my EW waves count aint worth a dammm in the US markets… today affirms it… Be well sir

    • Ahh thanks my years of hard work all for nothing…and I am a sucker……. thanks

    • mcmasoniam says:

      “The amount of time and angst here used up on a basket of 500 stocks is almost funny folks. AT the end of the day, what matters is if you own shares in a company that has a bright future and can grow and increase shareholder value. Trading around the SP 500 index in every squiggle is a suckers game”

      I understand, and rather agree with the ‘squiggle’ mentality. There are some suckers who prefer to buy and hold in a secular bear market, and there are other suckers who prefer to do otherwise.

      “meantime… should b e in Major wave 4 of Primary 3 but I trade stocks to make money, and forecast for exercise my brain… but I do not trade futures or the indexes…”

      Guess nobody here ever though of making money and exercising our brains. Sometimes, like now, I exercise my arm w/an excellent King Cab. And by all means, please don’t trade futures or the indices (correct plural of ‘index’). A few of the suckers who frequent this site are at MTS’ futures boot camp right now. They’ll be disappointed that they missed you. Ya’ll come back again soon sometime, ya here!

      Break out the Grey Poupon! Have a great weekend. Dinner is served…

    • mcmasoniam says:

      Since a number of the regular suckers who frequent this site are at MTS’ Futures Boot Camp today, I leave you with a little gift on their behalf. BTW, the word is ‘indices’, not indexes.

      Roll out that Grey Poupon!

    • mcmasoniam says:

      Well, it seems my computer is snobbish as well.
      Last post. Have a great weekend!

    • uncle10 says:

      Sounds like you have killed it! Congrats. Thanks for the help. Are you just invested in good companies and hold for the long term? At some point in the future you are going to be able to buy them a lot cheaper than now. Good luck.

  11. kvilia says:

    So that’s what the real problem is. Thank you, Gene Sperling, director of President Obama’s National Economic Council, for clarifying.
    “If we make it clear there’s not going to be a government shutdown, there’s not going to be a threat of default, that will take some uncertainty out of the economy,” he says. “That could help lead to a better holiday shopping season, which is an important time for small businesses…and for many people to pick up extra dollars, sometimes by taking a temporary job.”
    P.S. Sometimes I wonder who hires those ***** but then I look at the organizational structure…
    Sorry for OT post, definitely my last one today if it survives Tony’s censorship.

  12. Caldaro safe to say the BEARS have been DEFLATED?

  13. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    The Bots have to take out all the stops.
    GL and Good Weekend to all.

  14. torehund says:

    its a DUSTY road to success in Stocks, paved with numerous doubts. Patience is the biggest virtue backed by firm confidence in what you have already ascertained, amen.

  15. S&P hourly rsi slightly above 50. A break below 50 will bring selling pressure

  16. From my thinking I would not go long S&P 500 right now. I think it will drop very soon

  17. 5 waves up into .618 @1764, that’s as EW hedged as you can ask for.

  18. mjtplayer says:

    US Dollar higher = taper-on. Bonds getting crushed = taper-on. Emerging markets are down today = taper-on. But, US stocks are higher = taper-off? Can you spot the odd man out…

  19. llerias7 says:

    A bullish cross on the 60min. chart soon…finding the 1775 “top” next week, and crossing it probably…

  20. torehund says:

    one, two, three, and you are out, lets see…

  21. pooch77 says:

    Reply to jobjas

  22. pooch77 says:

    Are you serious?? 1600??? Maybe retest of 1747 but 1600 gosh cant get 2 down days in a row.Bad job numbers good for market,good jobs number good for market…any news good/bad good for market. Have good weekend all

  23. Still thinking the wave count on SPX and DOW is the same. SPX may have just completed wave 1 of Major 5 at 1775.22 on 10/30. Then we just went thru a Flat correction on 60min. At yesterday’s low that would be 23.6% of wave 1. Of course 1746.20 needs to hold and 1774.50 needs to break. – Joe

  24. jparkins10 says:

    .618 retrace completed at SPX 1762, more to do down in Int iv or is this up move Int v Minor i?
    1746 was very close to .236 retrace, so could be finished.

  25. On the subject of why 5th waves have been so weak in this bull market, my suspicion is they have become short into strength ops for the algo traders. Market is adapting and frontrunning the major turning points.

  26. jobjas says:

    b wave retrace complete at 1757 ES wave c starting down see chart

  27. llerias7 says:

    Tony about your chart for the USD, is the B green wave down concluded? If it is may assume we are on a C wave up, right? (til 87…may be…) Thanks.

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