wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +129

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight and the market gapped up at the open to SPX 1768. The market had closed at SPX 1763 yesterday. At 10AM Leading indicators were reported higher: +0.7% v +0.7%, and the SPX hit 1774. The market then pulled back to 1764 by 11AM, nearly closing the gap, and tried to rally again. At 3:30 the SPX hit 1771 and dipped to close at 1770.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.15%. Bonds gained 11 ticks, Crude rose $1.45, Gold added $7, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1699 and 1680 pivots, with resistance at the 1779 pivot. Tomorrow: the ECB meets, Q3 GDP and weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, TWTRs IPO, and a speech from FED governor Stein at 2PM.

The market had another gap opening today, the third one this week. Within the first half hour the SPX came within one point of marching its all time high, but the DOW made a new high. With the new high in the DOW we updated the count to display an ongoing Major wave 5, with Int. wave v currently underway. The SPX count stayed the same. Trifurcation continues.

Short term support remains at SPX 1756 and SPX 1730, with resistance at the 1779 pivot. Short term momentum is displaying a negative divergence at today’s highs. The short term OEW charts move from neutral to positive with the reversal level now at SPX 1764. Good luck trading tomorrow’s plethora of market data!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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180 Responses to wednesday update

  1. bobhopium says:

    I think this large move is all down to Lunker dumping his portfolio.
    …Lunker… are you the mysterious big seller thats been unloading into strength all week ? 🙂

    • thecustomer14 says:

      Somebody saw this coming:

      ewtoriginal says:

      November 6, 2013 at 5:03 pm

      As usual, I quietly observe this forum without comment. Who needs to when Tony displays zen-like calm in his assessments even when under attack from opinionated neophytes.
      I think the guy is extraordinary i his work and his cool as a monitor.
      From where I sit and accounting for some of the most utterly bizarre price action, I see a smashing imminent. Maybe starting tomorrow. The formation of the RUT is the inverse of my favorite surefire long…hence a collapse may prove true.
      Lots of headstrong bulls posting lately with fearless mentality only seen a major immediate tops.All stats cited pointing to impervious long positions as if the safety is sacrosanct and the seasonality will support it. How ironic that would be,as Tony has implied between the lines.
      I like the work of many,many here irrespective of predisposition to direction. It is really the best stuff on the web for an educated reader.

  2. kvilia says:

    Who would’ve thought, huh? And dont’ fight the Fed? Well, Ben needs rest once in a while, too. Welcome to Major 4 (thank Tony for cautiously warning about fifth waves in this bull market) no matter how shocking it sounds and feels. And no, its proprietary😉 .

  3. JK1987 says:

    SPX flat iv/d at 1749.31?
    new high with v/e next?

  4. Caldaro full 5 waves up from June on APPL?

  5. jparkins10 says:

    Now a 2% range day on IWM, last time was Oct 8th, which was the day before the end of Int 2. Next day was another 1.2% down from the open, which was mostly recovered by EOD, then we went up in Int 3.

    Could happen again, Int 4 ends tomorrow morning after a flush from NFP.

    • jparkins10 says:

      NFP has had a positive close 9 times out of 10 this year, only loss was 0.2% in April.

      Average up at EOD is 0.7%, average open is +0.4%, with HOD 0.6% above the open, LOD 0.6% below open.

      I’m looking for a small gap up, a sell off early to end Int iv, then up to start Int v

  6. RDC says:

    Now let’s sit back, relax and wait for 1680. VIX picking up it’s speed.

  7. lunker1 says:

    a perfect ED on MDY from May to complete P3 Oct 22?
    that touch on the top line was right on.
    don’t discount the importance of the Mid Caps.
    seen it trigger/confirm important turns before.

  8. uncle10 says:

    I don’t watch much CNBC, but everytime I turn it on, people are talking about revenues. It is just like in the last bubble when they only talked about page views. Maybe the next bubble will be about profits??

  9. blackjak100 says:

    This market may be going to 2000+, but there’s no denying the rise since 2009 counts and looks best do far as a ZZ or a double zigzag which means cycle b wave. This is no disrespect to Tony or my view of future market direction. That is EW and this is OEW.

    • H D says:

      Does EW have any other cycle B waves that made all time new highs? just for reference…

      • tony caldaro says:

        In OEW the DOW has never made an all time new high during a long term B wave.

      • blackjak100 says:

        Great info!

        Market has also never seen this kind of liquidity or financial engineering by the Fed…just food for thought.

        If it turns out to be a cycle B wave, suckers rally it was as B waves are suppose to be.

      • H D says:

        Thx Tony, I was being facetious:mrgreen: agree there is no B for blackjack, sorry dude, even though EW has been wrong for years they still want to impose the theory on models that do work, OEW

      • blackjak100 says:

        Possibly and I admit I’ve been lost for a few months. It’s just a count to respect as A=C in time and price. The symmetry is uncanny. First step is to break 1740 followed by 1646. Then we can get serious about this count.

      • mcmasoniam says:

        A rally is a rally is a rally. Only the person is a sucker, the rally is still a rally.

      • mcmasoniam says:

        GL guys and ladies! TTY much later.

    • JK1987 says:

      cycle b wave is coming from daneric.

      He has been posting cycle b wave since SPX 1500.
      He was calling P2 for 4 years , and then changed tp cycle b wave.

      McHugh has been on the right side and has SPX 1900 target.

      • pooch77 says:

        Only after a pullback to 1690 !!!!!That is McHugh has on his charts a d wave down to 1690

      • blackjak100 says:

        He has been wrong for many years. What scares me is he’s bound to be right eventually. Could it be with his long term count???

      • themoose101 says:

        I’ve been a bit leery of McHugh’s calls. Erik Hadik of InsiideTrack called for a yearly high in the Nasdaq between November 4-8 for some time now.

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