friday update

SHORT TERM: choppy downward bias continues, DOW +70

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.3% as well. US index futures were higher overnight. The market opened four points above yesterday’s SPX 1757 close and continued to rally. At 10AM ISM manufacturing was reported higher: 56.4 v 56.2. Just past 10AM the SPX hit 1766 and began to pullback. Around 12:30 the market made a new low for this pullback at SPX 1753. With a short term positive divergence in place the market then tried to rally. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1764, then dipped to end the week at 1762.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.05%. Bonds lost 20 ticks, Crude dropped $1.70, Gold slid $8, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1699 and 1680 pivots, with resistance at the 1779 pivot. Last night the FED reported a rise in the Monetary base: $3.628tn v $3.625 tn. Today the WLEI was reported lower again: 51.7% v 52.0%.

The market opened higher today, rallied back to SPX 1766, and then sold off to a new low for the pullback at 1753. With the SPX had closing at 1757 yesterday we again had a few intraday price swings. At the low the market setup a positive divergence. The first one in quite some time. And, naturally a rally followed. The rally hit SPX 1764 near the close for another intraday price swing. Another choppy day just like yesterday.

Short term support is now at SPX 1753 and SPX 1730, with resistance at the 1779 pivot and SPX 1804. Short term momentum is displaying a positive divergence. The short term OEW charts flipped flopped again today, ending positive, with the reversal level now SPX 1760. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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35 Responses to friday update

  1. Caldaro great weekend wrap. Love your flexibility. Most traders do not understand the brilliance of the fed.

  2. Rise and Shine! Well, not quite yet, but getting things started early.

    I know there are very experienced futures traders here, but for those who’d like to learn, Mr. Top Step and his buddies offer a great start. Kathy Garber, in MTS’s group of associates is probably the most organized and structured, hence the email:

    Have a great time trading!

    • lunker1 says:

      Lame sales pitch.

      • lunker, don’t be a lunk-head. If someone wants to get started in futures trading, most need someone to help them, and I like Danny Riley’s group of folks. This is an invite for those who want guidance from the floor, a platform and a group of traders just like them, all trading live. Not everyone is as brilliant as some here.

    • 16golfer says:

      mrtopsteps printgirl….Did you take Mr Top Steps course and did you find it helpful and worth the money spent? I’ve traded futures before and made good money, but lost it on a trade when the market moved against me. Got to have nerves of steel and know what you are doing for sure.

      • 16golfer, I’ve found that if you can trade cash markets, with success (stress that part), then you can learn to trade futures with some good guidance and a good platform. There are several people that belong to MTS’s Group of traders, each bringing something different to the table, and you get all their skill sets should you decide to take up their platforms (from the floor, live). Riley’s somewhat of a throw-in-on-the-wall-and-see-if-it-sticks guy, and I love him dearly but can’t trade like that. I’m a beginner and more conservative trader who doesn’t trade every little move in the markets. I like the way Kathy Garber trades, using fib retracements and harmonics and she mostly trades the last part of a move, which is as close to “in the bag” as you can get. Their Group should be having another Bootcamp the first part of 2014, so to make sure you’re on the list, and get in on their introductory prices afterward. Make sure Kathy has your email address. Should you want more info. now, talk to Kathy and see if her methods suit you. It’s not based on waves, but it works, and if you know fib retracements, and have a good sense of risk management (don’t bet the farm), you’re way ahead of the game.

  3. Here’s the short lesson on yesterday and today. On the last day of the month, managers marked their books and took profits on the best month of the year. On the first day of the month, they put that same money back to work. Yesterday’s MOC was 1.3 bil to sell. Today’s MOC was 1.3/1.8 billion to buy. The $SPX ended today where it began yesterday.

    What else happened today? They turned the week green.

  4. Good technical article. Much of what he says just reiterates many of Tony’s commentaries.

  5. Thanks, Tony. The OEW coffee club awaits your Weekend Update. I’m as addicted to your update as I am to my morning brew! 🙂

  6. Thanks Tony. USDJPY pair is so correlated with the broader market that they both have been in the same direction for the past 18 months. My first chart showing that 4th wave correction has completed in USDJPY and 5th wave move up has started. If that is the case I am not sure how the SPX market will be entering into P4. So I think I would have to rely on my second chart which is basically saying we are still in B wave of 4 and then C wave would follow that would match with P4 of SPX. While it is completing the B wave that would give enough time for SPX either to complete D and E waves of diagonal or int 4 and int 5. Any comments. Thanks.

  7. RDC says:

    Thanks Tony. NYMO is suggesting pullback is right around the corner, may happen next week.

    • pooch77 says:

      So what are we all thinking on with pullback,1740,1718,1680?? I think dow was almost positive this week!!!

    • blackjak100 says:

      NYMO keeps going down (now in negative territory last 2 days) while market keeeps going up. How about we correct down to 1665-1670 to form a nice head on the S&P with a up sloping neckline?

      • RDC says:

        Yes 1680 is very much possible.

      • I dunno, a gap up on Monday, and I’ve seen so many shorts past few days that a small rush to cover will hurt real bad.

        Nobody could keep it down… The past few days, I saw so many 1-million SPY shorts get picked up like it was a few thousand… just saying, be careful… wait for the move to start then hit it…

    • 16golfer says:

      Surfing wavers…I’ve seen many of those Monday morning gaps up myself and they weren’t fun if I was short. However, I think RDC might be on to something. We printed a doji candle for the week, so I’m positioned for a ride down to the 1680 area. Good trading to you! Haven’t seen Piker post a “Big Down” yet and I suspect he might still be eating lobster from his last trades and spending time on the links. lol

    • 16golfer says:

      RDC…Weekly charts printed a doji candle in addition to your NYMO indicator .

  8. Thanks Tony!! What is there to suggest (or not to suggest) that we in fact may have only experienced minute i of minor 5 and are now in minute ii?

  9. Tony Thanks.
    If SPX P3 has ended, how would SPX label be?
    SPX P3 can not be completed with 3 waves of i ii iii?

  10. torehund says:

    Stress testing of banks concerning how well they are equipped to tackle a rate hike in combo with another real estate bust. Tough times Ahead.
    Good weekend to all on Board.

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