thursday update

SHORT TERM: pullback continues, DOW -73

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.1%. Last night the FED released this: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20131031a.htm. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 340k v 350k. The market opened unchanged at SPX 1763, pulled back to 1761, bounced to 1766, and then pulled back further. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported higher: 65.9 v 55.7. The pullback continued until 10:30 when the SPX took out yesterday’s 1757 low hitting 1756. Then the market started to rally. The rally continued until around 2:30 when the SPX hit 1769. After that the market headed south, and oddly enough closed at SPX 1757.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.25%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude slipped 50 cents, Gold dropped $18, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1699 and 1680 pivots, with resistance at the 1779 pivot. Tomorrow: ISM manufacturing and Construction spending at 10AM, plus Auto sales.

The market opened flat today, tried to rally, then took out yesterday’s SPX 1757 low. As soon as it hit SPX 1756 it began to rally. The rally carried the market right back to the upper end of the post-FOMC trading range. Then the market headed back to the lows into the close. After a week or so absence, the BOTs are back. At the open they took out of overnight ES highs, then the overnight lows, then the early highs, and finally were shooting for the early lows near the close. Typical BOT action. With several reversals over the past few days, and the SPX 1757 low exceeded this AM, it certainly appears a pullback (profit taking) is underway. Year end selling?

Short term support drops to SPX 1756 and SPX 1730, with resistance at the 1779 pivot and SPX 1804. Short term momentum rose from quite oversold to neutral today, then ended oversold. The short term OEW charts flip-flopped during the day but ended negative, with the reversal level now SPX 1761. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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119 Responses to thursday update

  1. moo42 says:

    Thanks Tony!

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  2. I suggested y’day we may see ~1750 (for minor a?); LOD at 1752…; so not shabby if I may say so myself. 😉 But, I am not seeing the sell-off among stocks -at least those 30+ I track- which I would associated with a P-IV event. But, hey what do I know?!?!?

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  3. Great Service Caldaro. You seem to hit nail on the head and not be emotional. Signs of a great trader.

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  4. tuamotu says:

    B wave of the correction or (for the bears) the 1-2, 1-2 of the 3rd down ?

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  5. budfox9450 says:

    aircraft stil landing LAX, but very few…

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  6. berniebaruch says:

    RUT bouncing off support. Observations welcomed?

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  7. Chart of two possible counts…

    Either Downward Wave C of a Zigzag off 1775…… or the more probable Downward Wave 3 of 3 of A of a larger degree Zigzag correction…..

    1.0 Downward C support near 1749..

    1.618 Downward 3 support near 1737

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    • chrisk44342 says:

      Carlos I like your analysis and the fact that you look at alternates. On the hourly, the 3 of 3 scenario probably has not played out as planned. So the downward C makes more sense to me at the moment.

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  8. China’s Tech companies are spending on talent, like the Americans used to be in the 90s, and Americans are being pushed to the edge of suicide like Chinese used to be…

    The fall of US and rise of China is faster than anyone thought, maybe too fast? maybe not.

    Next few years, we either come back and China will fall like we did, or there won’t be much left of us, and that is the truthiness!

    Have a great weekend everyone 🙂

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    • budfox9450 says:

      an amazing comment to make…

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      • mcmasoniam says:

        Hello Bud. Calling the statement ‘amazing’ is being kind, which you always are kind that I can remember. Was listening to one of my many webinars the other night and the presenter had what sounded like a very sore throat. He said he’d just spent 2 weeks in China and breathing the air over there hurt his throat so bad that a week later, he still hadn’t recovered. We can skip what was said about the lack of clean water, and that there aren’t enough young women to boost or keep up the population, since the 1-child policy favored males to females. I did have a friend who went to a number of cities in China on vacate in 2011 who said much the same thing; plus, there are entire cities with buildings of every kind and all are completely empty.

        A one Chinese man told a reporter, “We can learn math, engineering and copy most anything, but don’t know how to invent…” Sort of sounds like Japan back in the day, doesn’t it? Interesting…

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      • Mason, if you are still not seeing the tire tracks on your back, then stay happy with their “false complements”.

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      • mcmasoniam says:

        surfwave, I have no idea what you’re talking about. I type my post and go do my thing. You don’t like my answer, then, don’t post. Out of here. Too much steak & wine so my typing sucks anyway. Good weekend to All.

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      • mcmasoniam says:

        Surf, my boyfriend says quit crib’in lines from Jimi Hendrix (reference to tire tracks). As for the rest, who gives a s – – t what anyone thinks. I make money and leave. Like now. Bye Bye!

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      • HAHA, you and your “boyfriend” said it all…

        Future right in the rear view mirror…

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    • torehund says:

      Every nation peaks and decline thats just how nature Works. The Mayans knew about these cycles. Nowadays politicians think that they can alter mother economy, time and time again the weak economy just backfires.

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  9. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony, Great work OEW…
    All I’m looking at is the Bearish Weekly Doji. Next week should be down. That’s all I’m saayin. 😉
    GL and Good Weekend to all.

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  10. H D says:

    So if you’ve listened to Lee and look and left you see the significance of 1752, last Friday low and a gap there too. We have layers of support, onion style.

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