monday update

SHORT TERM: drift higher continues, DOW -1

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.2%. US index futures were higher, then lower, overnight. At 9:15 Industrial production was reported higher: +0.6% v +0.4%. The market opened one point below Friday’s SPX 1760 close, dipped to 1758, and then started to rally. At 10AM Pending home sales were reported lower: -5.6% v -1.4%. After 10AM the SPX hit 1763 and began to pullback. The pullback lasted until 11AM when the SPX hit 1758 again. Then the market rallied to 1765, a new high, by 3PM. After that the market pulled back to SPX 1759, and then closed at 1762.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.05%. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude gained 75 cents, Gold added $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1699 and 1680 pivots, with resistance at the 1779 pivot. Tomorrow: Retail sales and the PPI at 8:30, Case-Shiller at 9AM, Business inventories and Consumer confidence at 10AM, and the two day FOMC meeting begins.

The market opened FED week slightly lower, then worked its way up to a new all time high at SPX 1765. The current rally has now travelled 24 points without one meaningful pullback since the SPX 1741 low on Wednesday. Minor 3 travelled 63 points without a meaningful pullback, and Minor 1 travelled 66 points with two meaningful pullbacks. With Minor 5 making new highs today, a down turn can now occur at any time. However, we are expecting the DOW to make new highs before it does. The DOW is currently about 100 points from its Major 3 high at 15,658, and 150 points from its B wave high at 15,710.

Short term support remains at SPX 1759 and 1730, with resistance at the 1779 pivot and SPX 1804. Short term momentum ended the day just above neutral. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1753. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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105 Responses to monday update

  1. 777daimon says:

    hope you like the joke 🙂
    a message for bears 😀


  2. mjtplayer says:

    Hey Tony,

    Things look pretty overbought and extended in the markets, complete 5 minor waves up to finish int 3/c and nearing the 1,779 pivot. Another Fed day top tomorrow?


  3. llerias7 says:

    I guess we just entered in the OEW 1779 Zone, so … “Yellow Alert”!


  4. lunker1 says:

    Hey Lee….catch ya on the flip side.

    Cledus Snow: Hey Bandit. Me an’ Fred’s got a question.
    Bandit: What you an’ Fred want?
    Cledus Snow: How come we doin’ this?
    Bandit: Well why not?
    Cledus Snow: Well they said it couldn’t be done.
    Bandit: Well thats the reason, son!
    Cledus Snow: [shrugs] That’s good with Fred. We’re clear.
    Bandit: [laughing] Ten-four


  5. pooch77 says:

    Small caps canary in the coal mine


  6. blackjak100 says:

    Am I seeing that correctly?…the -div on the daily being erased with this current rally?


    • tony caldaro says:

      Also of note, as we approach the FOMC meeting this week, there is a negative RSI divergence building on the daily chart. This could clear with another sharp rally like the first wave. But it is something to keep an eye on, as Int iii/c appears to be in its fifth wave.


  7. Slumpbuster warning, been a long time since we had any pivot action. close


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