SHORT TERM: rally resumes, DOW +96
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.6%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 350K v 358K, and the Trade deficit was reported slightly lower: -$38.8bn v -$39.1bn. The market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 1746 close. Within the first few minutes it touched SPX 1750, dipped to 1746, and then started to rally. Heading into the afternoon, with only 2-3 point pullbacks, the SPX hit 1754 at 3PM, and then began to pullback into a 1752 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.50%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude added 15 cents, Gold rose $12, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1699 and 1680 pivots, with resistance at the 1779 pivot. Tomorrow: Durable goods orders at 8:30, then Consumer sentiment and Wholesale inventories at 10AM.
The market opened higher today, crossed the SPX 1750 level, and continued on to 1754. In the meantime, while SPX stayed below its recent 1759 high, as did the NDX/NAZ, the DOW made a new high for the rally and now appears to be leading. This AM we posted a green Minor wave 4 at yesterday’s SPX 1741 low. It looks like Minor 5 is now underway. There are Fibonacci price relationships suggesting a Minor 5 high in the low 1780’s. And that is within the 1779 +/- seven point range. Expecting this current advance to top out near those levels. But only a new high is needed.
Short term support is at SPX 1730 and the 1699 pivot, with resistance at SPX 1759 and the 1779 pivot. Short term momentum has now risen from oversold to slightly overbought before dipping late. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1744. Best to your trading, FOMC upcoming on Tuesday/Wednesday next week!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market