thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening then rally, DOW -2

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.1% as well. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 358k v 374k. The market gapped down at the open for the third day this week. The SPX opened at 1715, dipped to 1714, and then started to rally. The SPX had closed at 1722 yesterday. At 10:00 the Philly FED was reported lower: 19.8 v 22.3. The rally continued until 1PM when the SPX hit its 1730 all time high. Then after a small pullback to SPX 1726 by 2:30 the market rallied again. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1733 where it ended the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.60%. Bonds gained 19 ticks, Crude lost $1.60, Gold rallied $39, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1699 and 1680 pivots, with resistance at the 1779 pivot. Tomorrow is Options expiration Friday, plus Leading indicators may/may not be reported at 10AM. The FED also has two speeches scheduled tomorrow: FED governor Tarullo at 1PM, then FED governor Stein at 4:30.

The market gapped down at the open today and again went into the ‘buy the dip’ mode. Right after the open the market bottomed at SPX 1714 and then rallied to new highs for the bull market at 1733. This ‘buy the dip’ before 10AM has now occurred nine times in the past three weeks. And, five of those times were after gap down openings. Odd market. While the SPX/NDX/NAZ all made new bull market highs, the DOW is still more than 300 points below its all time high. The Trifurcation continues. This is starting to feel like a 1999 style market.

Short term support now jumps to SPX 1730 and the 1699 pivot, with resistance at the 1779 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1711. Best to your trading!


LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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151 Responses to thursday update

  1. Next stop SPX 1760-1780, possible 1820s IMHO. Namely:

    1) 2.00 extension of int. med. i of Major 3 at 1760, measured from int. med. ii. This suggests we’re still in Major 3 (Tony’s second alt count, and which leads to item 3)
    2) 1.00 extension of Primary I oat 1772, measured from Primary I (Tony’s second alt count, my preferred count)
    3) 1.618 extension of Major 1 is at 1825….
    4) Only caution is that the 1.382 extension of Major 1 is at 1744. But price trend hasn’t, IMHO, shown any signs of weakening.

    Just look at how price is above the upper BBs on the daily, expanding the BBs: good momo! Same on the weekly chart. Daily MACD had bullish cross above 0-line, and both MACD and Signal line are pointing upwards. Weekly MACD is about to cross (already did on the NYA), also above 0-line.

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