monday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening then rally, DOW +64

Overnight the Asian markets open, gained 0.4%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down at the open to SPX 1693. The SPX had closed at 1703 on Friday. In the opening minutes the SPX dipped to 1692, bounced around in a narrow range until 11AM, and then started to rally. Just after 3PM the market made a new rally high at SPX 1711, then backed off to close at 1710.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.65%. Bonds lost 12 ticks, Crude added 20 cents, Gold rose $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1699 and 1680 pivots, with resistance at the 1779 pivot. Tomorrow: the NY FED at 8:30.

The market gapped down today, and again the low was put in before 10AM, then the market rallied. This seems to be common theme of late. Government partially closed for the past two weeks, Debt limit just ahead on Thursday, and still the market has no fear. This market is not acting like it has during previous trouble spots in this bull market. In the mean time, until something dramatic to the upside occurs, we maintain the same probable count.

Short term support is at the 1699 and 1680 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1730 and the 1779 pivot. Short term momentum appears to be putting in a negative divergence ending the day overbought. The short term OEW charts are still positive with the reversal level SPX 1690. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: DOW downtrend, SPX/NDX/NAZ uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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200 Responses to monday update

  1. JK P4 20% Crash Down says:

    Tony Thanks

    Tony updated int b of P4, here we go with the killer wave int c of P4.
    Potential 20% crash, compared to P2.

  2. radrian6 says:

    Hello Tony and all,
    Both RUT and SPX spiked up from a test of the 23.6% Fib RL. RUT has support from 1077-70; SPX has support from 1695-87. If those support levels are exceeded to the downside, the bears might have something but until then, the control remains with the bulls. Of course, any positive news out of DC will overpower harsh reality … we can’t have any of that, can we?

    RUT Fib RLs are 1078 (23.6%), 1070 (38.2%), and 1064 (50%). SPX Fib RLs are 1696 (23.6%), 1687 (38.2%), and 1679 (50%).

    • radrian6 says:

      A close near the LOD would help the bear case and add credence to the potential topping pattern on the SPX 15-min chart.

  3. Just Lee says:

    Hey R C

    Sorry for the delay ..I’m truly a hack Tony and Piker have mentioned some scenarios that I favor today RE going south
    I have to keep 2 hands on the wheel when I’m doing this stuff.
    Noticed Tony updated his SPX 60 minute
    We stopped exactly at the 34 DMA SPX at todays low so far.
    All eyes on the close .

  4. Call options are way too high, selling some!

  5. uncle10 says:

    Was there any doubt they would wait for the very last minute to get/announce a deal to kick it down the road? Its the same thing over and over. Same with Europe. Kick it down the road, push it off for another day….we will always do that as long as it is an option.

  6. 16golfer says:

    Piker busy working on his “Big Down” or out hitting golf balls?

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