friday update

SHORT TERM: rally continues, DOW +111

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight, and the market opened lower at SPX 1689. The SPX had closed at 1693 yesterday. After a few minutes the market started to rally. By 10:00 the SPX had hit 1697, and Consumer sentiment was reported lower: 75.2 v 77.5. A pullback to SPX 1691 followed by 11:00, then the market headed higher again. By 1:00 the SPX hit 1703. Then after a pullback to SPX 1699 in the closing minutes the market rallied to end the week at 1703.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.80%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude slid $1.60, Gold dropped $16, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 1699 and 1680 pivots, with resistance at the 1779 pivot. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 53.8% v 54.7%.

The market opened lower today, but then quickly made a higher rally high and continued over SPX 1700. This represents a better than 61.8% retracement of the entire decline from SPX 1730-1646. As noted yesterday, this type of market action suggests an alternative count may be in play. We will cover this, and the primary count, in some detail in the weekend update.

Short term support is at the 1699 and 1680 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1730 and the 1779 pivot. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought today and end there. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend counter-trend rally continues

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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31 Responses to friday update

  1. stay raw says:

    Well such a nice post i really liked your posting,nice update and keep looking for further updates as well and thanks for sharing such valuable updates with us.

  2. Could anyone tell me about a blog/site, where the Options OI tracker for the indices (S&P/DJI) could be found? Would be most obliged.

  3. valunvstr says:$SPX&p=W&yr=9&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27316106372&a=306044109&listNum=1

    Look for a higher high. The divergences are strong no matter what indicator you look at. TRIX, RSI8, STOCH, % of stocks above 50 and 200 day ma, slope, etc. The larger correction likely to come from those levels.

  4. uncle10 says:

    Hey Young Tom,

    I think you may be on to something! If you could get all the characters together on film and tell the story I think it could be good. No doubt it is a funny place.

  5. lunker1 says:

    Just noticed from early August high the Dow made an expanded flat and SPX made a running flat. so perhaps they were Major 4 of Primary 3 or they were Primary 4. Either way for this bullish count this almost 60 point wave 1 would be due for at least a 23% retrace for wave 2.

  6. tony caldaro says:

    the Weekend update will be a bit delayed tomorrow
    enjoy your coffee

  7. GM Tonys sir,

    If this is int b wave upto what max level will it retrace? What will be invalidation level for this count?

  8. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Sold some Long (Longs) into this ‘B’ wave😉
    Not sticking around for the fireworks on this one. Very tricky situation. Set up to go long looks too good, but their is an October chill in the air that doesn’t feel right with this trader. I hope everyone is positioned on the right side and the Wing-nuts get this thing hashed out.
    GL and Great Weekend to All.

  9. Primary count unchanged? That’s gonna be a tough sell, don’t you think?

    Let me just play a friendly game of “bull’s advocate,” Tony.

    In three days the market wiped out the last 11 days of the correction. The decline from 1730 had every reason to impulse (debt ceiling, government shut down) just like the August decline (QE3 tapering talk, War in the Middle East I mean – does anybody even remember Syria?) but all the market could do was chop lower, begrudgingly. The NDX and RUT merely consolidated at their highs. And while anything is possible, wouldn’t the most probable thing to expect be that the market will continue to impulse in the direction of its recent impulse direction, i.e. up? At least to test the old highs as resistance? And while a few here have made a comparison between this rally and the early June rally, the market never really found traction above its 50% retrace level in early June, where as this rally has allowed a weekly close fairly safe above that level. Maybe, Tony, and I mean this to you, kneeling most humbly on my knee with head bowed in respect before you, maybe there is another count that would better fit what the market has been doing lately.

    • 16golfer says:

      Piker…that’s possible because the market hadn’t sold off more than it had the last 4 weeks. However, the bond market calls the shots and with $6 Trillion of T-Bills held by foreign investors, who knows what can happen. Safest place to be is in cash at the moment IMHO until all this plays out.

      • You gotta be in it to win it! Place your bets and set your stops … Any golf for you this weekend?

      • 16golfer says:

        Piker….I know and that short term call option I bought on Tuesday played out OK. . Sold it too early, but “bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush”. No golf because of rain in my area. Hopefully next weekend will be nicer and I’m in desperate need of a golf fix. College football will have to do for now. Got 57 of your “big up” 60 and congratulations (again) are in order! $3000 on 1 contract for 3 days is nothing to sneeze at. May you continue your winning ways!

  10. Jennifer says:

    Thanks Tony!

    Seems like Wall Street is recovering as Obama and the Republicans talk:

  11. The DX came within $.005 of weekly swing low. It was all set to confirm and it lost it on the last two ticks of the day!

  12. pio27 says:

    Thanks for letting me back on Mr C. Is the vix heading back a lot lowers or can it still climb?

  13. capi25 says:

    is there + Div on the VXX on 60 min
    does it care ???


  14. Rancho says:

    Thank you Tony.

  15. lunker1 says:

    Thank you Tony and Da Crew🙂

  16. JK says:

    Tony Thanks.

    A new format?
    Noticed two days in a row, your update did not say following:

    The short term OEW charts remain (positive) negative with the reversal level now SPX 16xx.

    • tony caldaro says:

      that was confusing some … dropped it

      • JK says:

        The statement was there for a long long time every day.

        One wish with a new format:
        The short term OEW position remains (long) short at SPX 16xx, with stop limit at 16xx.
        That will help traders.

      • Joker, Tony has said many times that he does not offer specific trade recommendations.

      • Young Tom says:

        I guess I will say it again. Emotions here are at the highest when it is perceived that we are in corrective waves 2 or 4, not withstanding what degree that we may be in. I believe I will invest in a production company and bring everything here to Broadway with the hope some independent will pick it up and make a feature length film. This is just too priceless.

      • I expressed a little confusion, but only because there was a typo, 1690 when it should have been 1699. Please don’t use my comment as a reason to discontinue this type of observation:

        “The short term OEW charts remain (positive) negative with the reversal level now SPX 16xx.”

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