thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap up and go day, DOW +323

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. European markets opened higher and gained 1.9%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 374k v 308k. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1672, with budget and debt ceiling resolutions in sight. The SPX had closed at 1656 yesterday. By 10:30 the market had rallied to SPX 1682. Then it pulled back to SPX 1677 before heading higher again. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1693 and ended the day there. Quite a rally! Yesterday the FED released the following two statements, and one today:,,

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 2.2%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 2.2%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude gained $1.30, Gold dropped $19, and the USD was higher. Medium term support jumps to the 1680 and 1628 pivots, with resistance at the 1699 and 1779 pivots. Tomorrow we may/or may not get Retail sales and the PPI at 8:30, plus Consumer sentiment and Business inventories at 10:00. Also, at 11:00 there is a speech by FED governor Powell.

The market gapped up at the open and kept on going in one the of the strongest one day rallies we have seen in quite some time. Yesterday we had thought a Minor b wave rally was underway from the SPX 1646 low. With a potential upside of around SPX 1668. When the market opened at SPX 1672, signaling the best rally since the 1730 downtrend began. We upgraded charts from a Minor b rally to an Intermediate wave B rally. Typically, Int. B rallies can retrace between 38.2% and 61.8% of the previous decline. Since Int. A dropped 84 points (1730-1646), an Int. B retracement could go from SPX 1678-1698. The market hit SPX 1693 today. Should the market exceed SPX 1700 in the coming days we will need to consider some alternate counts for the SPX.

Short term support is now at the 1680 pivot and SPX 1654-1665, with resistance at the 1699 pivot and SPX 1730. Short term momentum ended the day quite overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend, with counter trend rally

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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229 Responses to thursday update

  1. JK says:

    One idea.
    Primary 5 truncation here at 1703?
    $rut only 4 points to record high.
    Probable? Possible?

  2. RDC says:

    Tony, is Gold heading to 1200, 1100 or 1000? Thanks

  3. Tony,
    We are hearing a decent amount of chatter that a deal in Washington is not a done deal and may fall apart. Does this align with any of your charts/waves? Thank you. (last post)

  4. Greg Polites says:

    Hello Tony; The indicators I use did not signal a major top in Sept (20) to match the OEW wave call. The three indicators I use for sell / buy signals actually generated a signal for a higher high to come next (greater than SP 1732). This alignment of indicators occured on Sept 20th for the SP500, Dow, and Transports – a strong confirmaiton of indicators for future direction. The vast majority of the time my indicators coincide with OEW major waves so for the Sept high – the divergerence in calls is a concern. I’m very interested now in your alternative counts and how they interpret the Sept 20th high.


    • JK says:

      You had a nice call on Tuesday even though was lower the next day.

      100813 Tuesday update
      OCTOBER 8, 2013
      SP1630 is now a key target window for this decline from which a substantial rally and new STORMM buy signals should develop.

  5. mcmasoniam says:

    David, I’m with you; lunker’s forking charts are great.
    As for those who just want to make a move because they can’t stand the suspense…

    Gotta go! GL!

  6. Lunker,
    Your slidIng SPX fishing charts have been awesome. Thanks.

  7. Tony, thank you for all you do for us. Would you give us your thoughts on where we are before the market closes today? Again, thank you.

  8. First of all, for all you critics who know so much that isn’t so, if you get nothing from reading or participating here, move on. I did a google search for “market trading blog” and came up with 251,000,000 hits! Brothers and sisters, if this ain’t your home, go forth and find one – there must be one place in those 251 million that you will get along with 🙂

    Second of all, NQZ up 115 handles, ESZ up 60 handles in two days, but stock volume is all dried up, parched even. Now, this thing can get to new highs without the mutual funds buying in – no problem there. But when “Big Down” comes a calling, somewhere between, say 1730 – 1750ish, and if volume continues to track lower into the high, but then suddenly volume increases on the new highs but price stalls and goes no where, remember this day – because as stunning as this rally has been, the next BIG Down, should volume increase, has all the potential to take your break away, aka be “breath taking.” This plunge should be quick, right back to 1560, maybe all in a day or two or three (maybe) and then another shocking rally back to wrap a nice little double top bow on this Grand Ole Bull market. That’s my story, and I’m sticking to it (at least through the weekend).

    Thanks, again Tony, you’re the only one worth reading and hanging out with as far as I can tell. Weak hands may be selling you, but the strong hands see no reason to sell. Have a great weekend!

    • tony caldaro says:

      Weak hands may be selling you, but the strong hands see no reason to sell.
      hahaha … never heard put that way before =)
      The most probable path has definitely run into turbulence.
      But in the end the significant waves always display their intention.

    • Thanks Piker, there are some people here with very bad vibe, but seem to be darlings of these old timers.

      I think the biggest flaw in most blogs is the fact the politics come to play, and people start taking things personally, I’ve been around long enough to know politicians don’t care about people like us, but we follow them so blindly.

  9. It will be interesting to see if we get a zweig breadth thrust over the next 8 days. ZB was down to 39.96 on wednesday intra day (closed at 40.08) and it needs to move >61.5 within 10 trading days. Right now it is at 54.

    Why is this important? Well, if it does move >61.5 within 8 trading days from now, then on average the market gains 24.6%.

    So let’s do some fun-with-math based on that: From 1646, that would target 2050s (1646 x 1.246)… This is almost exactly the 1.382x extension of primary I measured from Primary II: 2048 (1370-666) x 1.382 + 1075 = 2048). 3rd waves, in this case Primary III, often extend to 1.382x the 1st waves measured from the 2nd wave low.

    IF this all comes to fruit, then it would suggest Primary V to 2300… (1.764x Prim. I)

  10. Tony,
    Is the alternative more than 50% likely now?

  11. capi25 says:

    Hi Tony
    what does that mean When you fix the top price on your charts …

    and you take it off after a while…


  12. JK says:

    Do you consider the following as an alternate as “the market exceed SPX 1700”?

    From my favorite poster jedi (besides Tony):$SPX&p=D&st=2012-08-02&en=(today)&id=p11405416275&a=318213161&listNum=7

    Don’t know the degree. Maybe Primary 5?

  13. virgoan29 says:

    All I can say is, each one reads the wave count differently. As one waits for B , I wait for the completion of Major 5 at 16750. Merry Christmas and a very happy new year ahead folks ! Enjoy the fire works.

  14. H D says:

    Big time follow through, the count? who knows… a retracement will give some clues. Trading the backtest @ 1692-1702,,,, same ole same ole… :mrgreen:
    U guys have a great weekend and be nice to each other.

  15. budfox9450 says:

    JK – Appreciate the free “AD”…Now, all know me….

    • JK says:

      Please remove my post of:

      JK says:
      October 11, 2013 at 11:41 am

    • JK says:

      Bud, you come here to steal Tony’s clients.
      And your fee based service is using OEW charts (copy and paste), you should pay Tony a license fee. Or you violated Tony’s OEW copyright.

      • Like I said Lee says:

        Jack ur a pistol !
        I think Tony has taken a shine to you
        Open that futures account yet ? If not I don’t know what ur waiting for as u certainly have the personality for..this coming from a retired futures trader.
        I’ve got nothing to offer here anymore and please be nice to me if u choose to reply 😛

        Happy Canadian Thanksgiving to Igor and F

      • JK says:

        Lee, your advice is on my table.
        That was when I had the worst 6 weeks in a row losses.

        Leetired says:
        August 15, 2013 at 4:14 pm
        Hey Jack

        Can I assume you were born in 1987 ? If so that makes you about 26 (Gold medal in math also) I would suggest that you get some rest then open up a futures trading account if able or try and get a job at a prop shop and scalp the living daylights out of the ES minis. You seem wired like a bird dog and with futures you can microDH/adjust your positions all day and night . I didn’t start trading my own money until I was 27 .

      • budfox9450 says:

        Actually, I have employed the OEW charts, when
        the timing is right…Meaning, I agree with OEW’s view.
        It is a supportive chart, and credit is given to OEW.
        Actually, I encouraged OEW to build the Simple SP500
        chart, wherein Tony only plots the Primary and Major
        pivots…which is the chart I display, but rarely.
        I have no problem with refunds, either. And, this is
        not the place to carry-on this discussion….

  16. rc1269 says:

    c’mon folks (learned that one from Big O) let’s keep our eyes on the ball here
    a. the mkt has been in a range at trend highs
    b. has been chopping and overlapping (esp the INDU) for 5 months
    c. is developing one -div after another
    d. it’s October

    this combination does *not* typically resolve to the upside. at least not in the near term (1-2 mos). review your long term charts.

  17. lunker1 says:

    “Sliding” – when price exceeds a fork (red) by a certain amount (light blue) you can establish a parallel line to that fork and apply it to the other forks as price at times will tend to respect that new sliding line.

  18. gselsidi says:

    Has anybody noticed the insane amounts of gaps in the s&p the last 5 months? I have never witnessed this, are the markets about to break? I think this is something very interesting.

    Any thoughts on this?

  19. 777daimon says:

    ”Should the market exceed SPX 1700 in the coming days we will need to consider some alternate counts for the SPX.”

  20. mjtplayer says:

    House GOP offers a deal to re-open the gov’t and raise the debt ceiling, market rallies. But, the deal includes spending cuts. Something tells me Obama and the Senate Dem’s won’t agree to more spending cuts – sell the rally.

  21. Tony,
    Is the alternative more than 50% likely now?

  22. JK says:

    IS SPX still with int b of P4?
    It’s way above 38% to 50% retrace of the A wave decline.

    tony caldaro says:
    October 10, 2013 at 9:26 am
    B waves usually retrace 38% to 50% of the A wave decline.
    Normally, the structure in the A wave is repeated in the C wave.

  23. tuamotu says:

    Thanks for your work Tony …
    Newbie here.
    Gold slam again this morning. I would like to have your opinion
    on manipulation and implication with Comex registered gold available .
    China will surely buy more gold and calls for new world global currency …

    • tony caldaro says:

      The Gold bugs will cry foul as they always do.
      HSBC/JPM were manipulating the Silver market, but that ended.
      Gold is in a bear market.
      Bear markets have sudden sharp rallies
      But the overall trend is down

  24. mjtplayer says:

    S&P high just short of the .618 retracement at 1,697.

    Good luck to the ‘Cards tonight Tony! BoSox game 1 tomorrow night – still on pace for that ‘Cards – Sox WS Tony!!

    • tony caldaro says:

      looking forward to it

    • tommyboys says:

      Sorry – go Tigers!

    • themoose101 says:

      Hope you don’t mind, boys, but I’ve got to toss in a vote at least for the Dodgers just to keep it interesting here. Always love a Dodgers-Cards matchup in the NLCS, but gotta give the edge to St. Louis, though. In a 5 game Series, Kershaw and Greinke can get it done, but in a 7 game setup, with Ryu and Nolasco struggling, it could be too tough to handle. However, a Dodgers-Sox Series would be something to see, especially in light of last year’s trade. Dodgers would be bringing Gonzalez and Crawford back to Boston, with Punto coming off the bench. The best part for us is turning off the sound on TBS and tuning in to Vin Scully on the radio. It’s a shame that Jack Buck isn’t with us anymore. Two classic teams and two classic announcers.

  25. TC –

    Thank you for the awesome insights and analysis. Trading is all about creating hypotheses (more than 2), accepting the risk, and letting the market tell you if you are correct or not (honoring stops). Managing risk must be personalized to one’s risk tolerance and the trade probability. Stops are your friend and should be placed where you are wrong on the hypothesis. Big Up gave some great advice yesterday on how to establish a trading plan, move up stops (i.e. flexibility in your plan as the trade goes in your favor), and how to take profits at reasonable targets (i.e. 50% retraces, etc). Best to all in your trading journey. Learn something new each day/week …

  26. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony !
    again Dow and SPX not in parity esp if spx crosses 1699..

    It will be hard for Fed to go ahead with Debt deadlock for 6 weeks. With Yelen appointment Oct interest rate decision will be taken in December.

  27. Like I said Lee says:

    Hit a support zone this am and some shorts took some profits back thru 100.80
    BTW Tony’s a very very good gold trader also.

    • Like I said Lee says:

      Would anybody for a trade in GC think this is a cheap long here ?
      Looking left to the 1 st week of July

      • Like I said Lee says:

        #3 It’s Pivot time again ! SPX 1699
        Some nice calls here when u sort thru the recent noise, very good ones
        Have a great day and weekend and for some a holiday on Monday which is Columbus Day (fuggedaboutit ) U guys are ok with me no matter what the new people say.

    • oneandonlyuniverse says:

      Tony is great with gold. They stopped the world at 1280. It is the most hated trade and that is why we see 1550-1475-1600 before the year is out. All these charts look like June 27th again.

  28. cyassin says:

    Tony we have not reached a low in $NYMO chart . This market require a lot of discipline and patience to stay oin the game otherwise it could hurt pretty badly .For now i will wait patiently until $NYMO send me a good buying signal$NYMO&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=0&r=1381499618592

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