wednesday update

SHORT TERM: market dips then rebounds, DOW +26

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened at SPX 1659. The SPX had closed at 1655 yesterday. In the opening minutes the market dropped to SPX 1653, then bounced to 1658 by 10:30 before heading lower. At 11:30 the SPX hit 1646 and then started to rally. At 2:00 the FED released the FOMC minutes: The rally continued until 3:00 when the SPX hit 1662. Then a pullback into close ended the day at SPX 1656.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.40%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude dropped $2.05, Gold slid $14, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at the 1680 and 1699 pivots. Tomorrow we may/or may not get reports on weekly Jobless claims and Export/Import prices at 8:30, then the Treasury budget at 2:00.

The market opened higher today, then dropped down to a new downtrend low by 11:30. After that it appears that the market rallied from an extremely oversold condition. Just past 1:00 we posted a tentative Minor wave a label at today’s SPX 1646 low. This afternoon’s rally would then be considered Minor b of Intermediate wave C. The larger rallies, during this downtrend, have been about 22 points. This suggests Minor b could get near the SPX 1668 area. Then we would expect Minor c of Int. C to take the market to new downtrend lows.

Short term support is at SPX 1654-1665 and the 1628 pivot, with resistance at the 1680 and 1699 pivots. Short term momentum remained extremely oversold this AM then rebounded to neutral. The short term OEW charts remain negative with the reversal level now SPX 1671. With Janet Yellen now nominated for FED chair, let’s go all the way and nominate Sen. Elizabeth Warren for vice chair. Too big to fail will be a thing of the past! Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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259 Responses to wednesday update

  1. travis01 says:

    Thanks for the clarification yesterday…huge day today! Been in meetings all day in Chicago, thoughts on this topping?

  2. hucky2 says:

    From an RM perspective it looks like mainly lows on the radar for about 2 weeks. Today should work out to be a significant high. 4 days time another high (hopefully lower), but should be very choppy. So choppy means correction & downtrend continues – Imho

  3. H D says:

    nothing a six pack can’t fix.

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