monday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening then choppy, DOW -136

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.7%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down at the open to SPX 1676. Within a few minutes the SPX hit 1675 and then began to rebound. The market had closed at SPX 1691 on Friday. Around 10:30 the SPX had bounced 10 points to 1685. After a pullback to 1680 by 1:00 the market started moving higher again. At 2:00 the SPX hit 1686, then started to pullback. At 3:00 Consumer credit was reported higher: $13.6bn v $10.6bn. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1676 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.85%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.90%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude slipped 75 cents, Gold rose $11, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance now at the 1680 and 1699 pivots. Tomorrow we may/or may get a report on the Trade balance.

The market gapped down at the open for the fourth time in seven trading days. No gap up openings during this period. And, just like the previous three the market hit its low early on and started to rally. Today, however, the rally gave back nearly all of its gains by the close. This appears to be a change in the character for the short term. Early this morning we marked a tentative green Int. wave b high at Friday’s SPX 1692. The market will need to drop below SPX 1670 to confirm.

Short term support is at SPX 1654-1665 and the 1628 pivot, with resistance at the 1680 and 1699 pivots. Short term momentum touched oversold this morning, bounced to neutral, then ended oversold. The short term OEW charts turned negative at the open and remained there with the reversal level SPX 1686. Get the impression the political stalemate may last all month. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend seems in play

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

165 Responses to monday update

  1. mcmasoniam says:

    Gap filled.
    Have a great evening, All!

  2. Interesting chart of the NDX, especially considering today’s move. I don’t have any favor to the count, just an option, but the price confluence is a fairly substantial. Definitely seems ripe for an intermediate decline.

  3. Tony

    Could Major wave A bottom today ?

  4. alexh110 says:

    Tony, if you’re right about a Primary IV flat-wave, is 1552-1680-1552 a likely scenario for the major waves?
    Also if the Debt Limit crisis is the driver of Major a, what would be the catalyst for Major c?

  5. Well looks like c is definitely here. Next few days should be fun.

Comments are closed.