friday update

SHORT TERM: rally mode today, DOW +76

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.4%. US index futures bounced around overnight, and the market opened flat at SPX 1679. After an early dip to SPX 1677 the market rallied to 1688 by 10:30. Then after another pullback to SPX 1682 by 11:00, the market rallied to 1692 by 3:00. A dip into the close ended the week at SPX 1691.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.90%. Bonds lost 13 ticks, Crude added 30 cents, Gold slid $7, and the USD was higher. Medium term support moves back up to the 1680 and 1628 pivots, with resistance at the 1699 and 1779 pivots. Last night the FED reported a decline in the Monetary base: $3.528tn v $3.546tn. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 54.8% v 54.9%, and long term Investor sentiment rose: 54.5% v 52.3%. No monthly Payrolls report, or FED speech reports, due to the shutdown.

The market opened flat today but then resumed yesterday’s rally. When the SPX crossed 1685 we posted a tentative green Int. wave A label at yesterday’s 1670 low. Intermediate wave B appears to be currently underway. A 38.2% retracement would give us an upside target of SPX 1693; a 50% retracement SPX 1700. When Int. B concludes we expect the market to head lower in Int. wave C.

Short term support is at the 1680 pivot and SPX 1654-1665, with resistance at the 1699 pivot and SPX 1730. Short term momentum hit overbought today after being quite oversold yesterday. The short term OEW charts flipped positive again with the reversal level now SPX 1687. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend still weak

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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84 Responses to friday update

  1. OEW coffee club tomorrow! Yahoo! Tony, you’re awesome. Each weekend we have your WEEKEND commentary to look forward to with our coffee beans. 🙂 We all owe you a debt of gratitude for your hard work that benefits us all We are grateful and appreciative.

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  2. mcmasoniam says:

    Since I gave up on baseball once the Stos let Nolan Ryan go, I’ll side with the squirrel.

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  3. 16golfer says:

    Tony, extra hours needed in a baseball game to sell advertising & concessions….lol. Good friend of mine who is retired NFL coach told me he never in his life would have dreamed of the tremendous salaries the players are paid today.

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  4. budfox9450 says:

    The 1699 pivot. Suspect will hold, as resistance…Bud

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  5. CB says:

    Thanks for sharing your market wisdom Tony! Much appreciated as always. Have a great weekend everyone!

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  6. Like I said Lee says:

    PX @ PX
    That Cole is el fuego lately.. No doubt

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  7. Nice call yesterday, Tony. And whoever called for a bounce in Tesla nice work too.

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  8. student8888 says:

    Piker, are you expecting big up next week?

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    • I do not expect anything. A Big Up set up exists, and its trigger would be a cash SP trading above 1693. Stop would be a close below yesterday’s 1670 low. I haven’t worked the target out yet – I’ll post it later.

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    • Well, we’ll have to wait a while for that Golfer. The market might go down from here, and it might go down big, but it won’t be a Big Down. A Big Up basically means that all conditions are in place for the market to confirm a SWING LOW, and a Big Down means that the conditions are in place for the market to confirm a SWING HIGH.

      The last Big Down was wed-thurs-fri 918 -20. So the next Big Up/Big Down will, by definition, be a Big Up, as the market is off its highs sufficiently to generate a swing low. Now, that being said, the market can generate a Big Up and soon thereafter generate a Big Down without ever approaching a double top or new highs. For example, 6/6 set a Big Up that triggered 6/7 when SPX traded above1623. On 6/18 the market set up a Big Down, having “rallied” less than 30 points over 8 trading days, and that Big Down triggered 6/19 when SPX traded below 1639. Next Big Up a few days later on 6/24.

      It don’t mean a thing if the market doesn’t swing!

      Speaking of swing, I’m off to the driving range to work through my bag for a four man scramble tomorrow. I had some trouble hitting my long irons yesterday, and I want to try to fix that. Good Times!

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      • Young Tom says:

        CN,
        Put the ball a little further back in your stance, keep your head slightly behind the ball at impact, and if your right handed, feel like your club head is going to right field. See if that works. If not put a couple of tees in the laces in your shoes. Don’t think about your swing, but think about why you have tees in your shoe laces. Remember to come home, after your round, with the smell of liquor on your breath and the truth is not in you.
        YT

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      • 16golfer says:

        Great swing dance song, Piker! Good luck in the 4-some tomorrow and KISS. I’ll be at a college football game so will miss the President’s cup unless I can get my son-in-law to tape it for me.

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  9. Like I said Lee says:

    Thanks Hombre

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    • tony caldaro says:

      we routed yesterday, and get routed today … go figure =)

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      • Like I said Lee says:

        I’m exhausted already !

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      • Being a baseball fan is like being a trader – very humbling, and it humbles when least expected.

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      • Young Tom says:

        Exhausted? Try being a Cubs fan. I once saw a video of a baseball game that edited out all the scratching, pulling of the hat, time between pitches etc, etc…the actual game,batter vs hitter lasted for about 15 minutes.
        You all have a great weekend.
        YT

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        • tony caldaro says:

          In days gone by …
          Once the batter entered the batters box he needed a time out from the home plate umpire to leave it.
          Also, pitchers were not allowed to leave the mound, go to their mouth, walk around and rub the ball.
          Elroy Face, and others were ejected for throwing what was termed spit balls.
          There were no meetings at the mound catcher, pitcher, infielders, unless accompanied by the pitching coach or manager.
          And of course the strike zone was from the shoulders to the knees, not the waist to the knees.
          Games use to take about two hours, now they are three and four hours.

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