friday update

SHORT TERM: rally mode today, DOW +76

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.4%. US index futures bounced around overnight, and the market opened flat at SPX 1679. After an early dip to SPX 1677 the market rallied to 1688 by 10:30. Then after another pullback to SPX 1682 by 11:00, the market rallied to 1692 by 3:00. A dip into the close ended the week at SPX 1691.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.90%. Bonds lost 13 ticks, Crude added 30 cents, Gold slid $7, and the USD was higher. Medium term support moves back up to the 1680 and 1628 pivots, with resistance at the 1699 and 1779 pivots. Last night the FED reported a decline in the Monetary base: $3.528tn v $3.546tn. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 54.8% v 54.9%, and long term Investor sentiment rose: 54.5% v 52.3%. No monthly Payrolls report, or FED speech reports, due to the shutdown.

The market opened flat today but then resumed yesterday’s rally. When the SPX crossed 1685 we posted a tentative green Int. wave A label at yesterday’s 1670 low. Intermediate wave B appears to be currently underway. A 38.2% retracement would give us an upside target of SPX 1693; a 50% retracement SPX 1700. When Int. B concludes we expect the market to head lower in Int. wave C.

Short term support is at the 1680 pivot and SPX 1654-1665, with resistance at the 1699 pivot and SPX 1730. Short term momentum hit overbought today after being quite oversold yesterday. The short term OEW charts flipped positive again with the reversal level now SPX 1687. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend still weak

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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84 Responses to friday update

  1. One can make a very valid argument that the bellweather index now is not the DOW, its the NASDAQ. Its where most of the technology and leading growth names are in this newer world of Biotech and Tech. Elliott did his work in a bygone era when of course 30 dow companies were the bellweather. I wonder if anyone on this board even trades or owns any DOW stocks, I know I dont.

    The SP 500 I use because it does have a broader index of 500 companies with a good mix

    With that said, the NAS continues with a very bullish chart not speaking of any Primary 3 top. The SP 500 also looks more like a Major 4 of Primary 3 and certainly not a Primary 4 situation

    When we blow past the 1730 highs in the coming weeks, the entire count is going to change again on this blog and then we will still be talking about the DOW? Makes no sense

    But… that is just my 2.5 cents… the new world IS the nasdaq, its not the DOW

    see ya in 1770 soon once Major 4 completes

  2. torehund says:

    Curious how nature seems to selects psycic unstable individuals (firstly) to convey messages pointing to a malfunctioning system or an impending directional change. First out was the poor schizoprenia affected woman and then secondly the man that just recently put himself on fire. As usual the crowd then sooner or later “Wakes up” and a mass movement follows.
    In Norway as I have been speaking of before, the mass killings at Utøya made a popularity peak for the affected Labour party. Latter to the incident the right wingishly oriented (contrary to all common and sane thinking) got increasingly more popular and won the election together With the less blueish conservatives.
    As I have also conveyed in earlier posts, the individual himself isnt freewillishly responsible but merely a tool for the Whole population(or nature) in signaling directional changes.
    Freakishly strange it is, but we experience similar phenomenons in the stockmarket. Buying at a bottom or shorting at the top, no sane person can ever master.
    Thought of tonight, happy weekend to all of you, if I dare to say so…

    • torehund says:

      Maybe, just maybe do all Americans know deep in their heart that grave inequality in the Access to Healthcare just isnt right….and that Obama just migt be the courageous hero will eventually give relief to the whole nation from its bad hidden consience.
      Maybe the line between fairnes humanity and socialism isnt as Clear cut as republicans wants it to be ? Just a thought around the sin of inheritance, or ?

      • Dwayne Smith says:

        Nice post and keep update in future also.Thanks for sharing such information with us.

      • mcmasoniam says:

        torehund, I’m not really understanding what you’re saying is happening in Norway, but it sounds like a violent change; then again, most change is violent.

        Regarding The Affordable Care Act via Obama, I would argue that this edict was ushered into being unlawfully. Pres. Obama did not have it properly ratified by Lawmakers, according to laws of USA.

        That said, I personally don’t believe the 16th Amendment (Income Tax) was properly ratified, as compensation for labor should not be considered ‘income’ in the historic sense of the word. Same with Social Security. Given these beliefs on my part, some would say I belong to “Live Free or Die”, but I’m not that radical.

        Please put in easier to understand terms (probably language difference) what is happening in Norway. It’s a country I take great interest in.


    • torehund says:

      Norway discovered great oil reserves back in the early 1970, and the aim was at that time to secure that the funds were used to provide infrastructure and New Growth for a time when the oil would no longer be available.
      Yes we did retrieve the oil but did nothing constructive With the funds (placed them in Stocks and bonds around the world). In th meeantime we have endured massive inflationary pressure that made us non-competitive in most areas but retrieving oil and harvesting salmon from Our fjords. The left over workforce was then fueled into an ever increasing bureaucracy that is quenching the last efforts of entrepeneurship. In addition to this we have endured migration from Africa and Pakistan to such an extent that 1/3 of the Capitol now consist of not very well Integrated immigrants. The oil reserves are rapidly declining and we have the largest sosial Budget in the world. Most productive Companies has flaged out due to high COSTs and are now in Asia, Arabia and lastly the state owned oil Company Statoil is building New Offices in Aberdeen Scotland.
      We are currenly living on the yields of the oil fund extracting 4 percent of the surplus year after year. If stockmarket descends 10 percent do we have to consume minus 10 percent annually ?, lol.
      Norway is nearing the top of an epic bubble and is running like a large Casino. I expect the running on fumes to last a bit longer as the conservative party is set to revive the economy by injecting 5 or 6 percent into the economy annually. As you see, this is a recepie for ultimate economical disaster.

      • mcmasoniam says:

        torehund, thanks for taking the time to explain the situation in Norway to me in a basic way. Sounds familiar, and is in part, at the very least, playing out across much of the Western world. Not meaning to take away from Norway’s dilemma, specifically. All very sad. M

      • torehund says:

        Its natures way, we in Norway are on the 5th wave but a double 5 i think, With one 5 left to go. And nothing can be done thats the sorry part.

      • mcmasoniam says:

        torehund, to steal a phrase from Al Pacino in “Scent of a Woman”, it’s not that nothing can be done, it’s just that what has to/needs to be done is TOO DAMNED HARD. The pain and sacrifice it would take to correct and get on the right path is more than politicians and the average person (not to mention the very rich) is willing to do/deal with. We have much the same situation here in The U.S. Invariably, you find this in all cultures in the 5th wave process.

      • torehund says:

        Agree fully M- its only very late in a turn, and after some catastropic event that a change is feasible, or you will be ridiculed or in some places decapitated utttering the “yet to become truth”. We can only ride the crazy Waves, initial revolt is sorrly the duty of the mentally unstable. However, we can vote With Our feet and move to another country as long as Our currency is ok, without that latter option we will go Down With the ship we are sitting in. Thats why Money in the bank is Dangerous too.

      • mcmasoniam says:

        torehund, I hear you. My Greek friends say that all the young people who are able to leave the country are splitsville, in droves! For the most part, the elderly and ill remain. No country can stand up to this emigration for long. Eventually it will collapse.

      • torehund says:

        M-thats what the Germans want cheap Young labor from Greece keeping a lid on labor costs. But even if Greece suffers, the currency dont suffer equally(euro) so if you are in cash you can flee, if you have property you are still stuck. But the USD and more seriously still the NOK are single currencies and a drop will make all what one have plunge once you set Your foot abroad. Thats why we have to have Our eyes wide open. I have a dollar and a nok account so that I can adjust.

      • mcmasoniam says:

        torehund, absolutely correct! My best wishes to you. I hope we all make it through these upcoming crises alive and well. Oh, how I hope so…

      • torehund says:

        to you too M- and please buy some peix, and blaim it on me only if it aint a winner..

  3. Thanks for the update Tony! That b wave sure did take hold! Great call! I was expecting more down given the somewhat unconventional c=0.5x a extension, but this market has it’s share of weak c waves… (e.g. int. med. c of major 4). oh well, great bull trap!

    I look forward to you weekend update and after that it will be a weekend full of fall ball! 2 practices, 2 games. A and AA leagues. Next spring season it will be A and AAA. So cool! Oldest son got a new 31″ bat and he’s hitting it much harder now! Him being a lefty too, gotta work on his pitching! it will be bitching!! (pardon my french!)

  4. mjtplayer says:

    “Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson, then Nolan Ryan”

    Hmmm, interesting. I used to follow baseball closely, especially in the 2000’s when the Sox were exciting. But have lost interest over the past few years, more of a football fan than baseball. That said, the Sox are looming good! 1-0 after today’s win against the Rays!

    Best ALL AROUND hitters of all-time? Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Willie Mays. IMO

    • mcmasoniam says:

      Posted this on another forum… From a biography of Lou Gehrig:

      “Aside from baseball, Lou’s favorite hobby was gardening at his vacation home in Lyme, Connecticut.”

      Scary & interesting, don’t you think?

      • zvyezda says:

        McM, the Plum Island bio-warfare research lab across Long Island Sound from Lyme, Connecticut may not have been opened yet in 1941. After WW2 the government brought over a German scientist who specialized in the weaponization of diseases of ticks and mosquitos to head it. The disease itself is native to Eastern Europe although that is never mentioned.

        Just one of many reasons that we will eventually take out the 1932 lows in real dollar terms – because they want it that way.

      • mcmasoniam says:

        zvy, I know all about Plum Island and assure you that Borrelia infections were in the USA as soon as the Anglo population began to move into this country, in fact, even before that time. Tick Bite Fevers are recorded as far back as The Egyptians.

        I had advanced Lyme, more specifically known as Borreliosis, and got infected via congenital transmission. The particular strain I had originated in Central Europe, and has not been found in nature here in almost 30 years (I’m 57 yrs. old).

        Regarding ALS, most advanced cases of Borreliosis in men manifest as ALS, while advanced cases in women manifest as MS.


    • mcmasoniam says:

      zvy: Here’s what’s happening w/TBD’s presently. Scroll down and watch the film. You might save a life because of it someday.


  5. The market opened flat, tested yesterday’s neckline for the first half-hour. Finding some footing, the SPU’s ran ten handles up in sixty minutes. A Boehner news conference took five handles out of the market. While he was full of vitriol, price hardly moved. With bad news not pushing it down, traders stepped in and walked the SPU’s up another ten handles until the MOC sell-side imbalance came out at 90% sell at 700 mil. Those orders were mostly matched (200 mil on the close), and we closed near highs of the day.

    A simpler way to express the moves since 1670 is this: ten up and five down, rinse and repeat. We’ve done it three times in twelve hours.

    My interpretation of the three’s count from last night was a bust as the final 3 in a 333 truncated. However, the count shows the value of looking at the ‘3’s. The final b-c amplitude and frequency was the lowest of the recent declines: it marked a reversal. Friday’s closing price on the c-x connector matches the amplitude high of its brethren.

    c-x. SPX 1691-1704= +07, 07 hrs
    c-x. SPX 1680-1693= +13, 05 hrs
    c-x. SPX 1677-1690= +13, 07 hrs (ongoing)

    There’s a lot of price congestion between 1688 and 1705, the Larry Summers and the FOMC gaps. Tony notes the 38.2 and 50% retracements in his summary. If we get another 5 down and 10 up, it’ll put us exactly at the 50% retrace.

    535 count update and more

  6. Pingback: Risk-Reward Report – 2013.40 | The Risk-Reward Report

  7. hucky2 says:

    Have you got a current Pitchfork chart for the SPX?

    • torehund says:

      what is a pitchfork chart ? I made a chart in which we are in the first part of a reversed five upwards, still sticking to it. For the smallcap futures I think there is a lot to gain yet as for the nasdaq. SP 500 well the bull is aging but when the two former performs why ogo for the lesser one. I play the undervalued Stocks that have mostly descended from year 2000, as the bull matures out I hope they will retrace part of their declines.

      • torehund says:

        Currently 1 usd is 6 nok, but I am starting to play With a bottom of usd at 1 usd to 3,8 nok. Its pretty far Down and it would require a strong commodity rally and a Cold winter. However, looking at the strength of crude right now and the ever more hot printing Activity in the US, it just might happen. Oil projection is then around 200 usd.
        One good thing about a possible usd decline is that the middle east would then be able to still purchase vital commodities(in spite of lesser oil Resources) and europe would get a breather too. And for uncle Sam this downturn would “Lock in” already US Citizens to remain in their country working, until it some time in the future has rid itself of a swelling bureaucracy replacing productivity . The latter made Europe deteriorate, and in Norway bureaucracy is all we have left, besides oil thats getting more and more difficult to find.

      • torehund says:

        Extreme dollar projection

      • torehund says:

        Regarding the possible vast decline in the dollar, it could also possibly redistribute wealth in a major way, maybe the possible winners are the ones that believes in Obama and believe in change for the better. Maybe the New Rich ones are less reluctant to spend some of their wealth and then recharges the economy.
        In economy as in life, play it safe and you eventually loos it all.

  8. scorp100 says:

    Namaste Tony. Thanks for the GREK. Do you expect uptrend to continue?

  9. OEW coffee club tomorrow! Yahoo! Tony, you’re awesome. Each weekend we have your WEEKEND commentary to look forward to with our coffee beans. 🙂 We all owe you a debt of gratitude for your hard work that benefits us all We are grateful and appreciative.

  10. mcmasoniam says:

    Since I gave up on baseball once the Stos let Nolan Ryan go, I’ll side with the squirrel.

  11. 16golfer says:

    Tony, extra hours needed in a baseball game to sell advertising & concessions….lol. Good friend of mine who is retired NFL coach told me he never in his life would have dreamed of the tremendous salaries the players are paid today.

  12. budfox9450 says:

    The 1699 pivot. Suspect will hold, as resistance…Bud

  13. CB says:

    Thanks for sharing your market wisdom Tony! Much appreciated as always. Have a great weekend everyone!

  14. Like I said Lee says:

    PX @ PX
    That Cole is el fuego lately.. No doubt

  15. Nice call yesterday, Tony. And whoever called for a bounce in Tesla nice work too.

  16. student8888 says:

    Piker, are you expecting big up next week?

    • I do not expect anything. A Big Up set up exists, and its trigger would be a cash SP trading above 1693. Stop would be a close below yesterday’s 1670 low. I haven’t worked the target out yet – I’ll post it later.

    • Well, we’ll have to wait a while for that Golfer. The market might go down from here, and it might go down big, but it won’t be a Big Down. A Big Up basically means that all conditions are in place for the market to confirm a SWING LOW, and a Big Down means that the conditions are in place for the market to confirm a SWING HIGH.

      The last Big Down was wed-thurs-fri 918 -20. So the next Big Up/Big Down will, by definition, be a Big Up, as the market is off its highs sufficiently to generate a swing low. Now, that being said, the market can generate a Big Up and soon thereafter generate a Big Down without ever approaching a double top or new highs. For example, 6/6 set a Big Up that triggered 6/7 when SPX traded above1623. On 6/18 the market set up a Big Down, having “rallied” less than 30 points over 8 trading days, and that Big Down triggered 6/19 when SPX traded below 1639. Next Big Up a few days later on 6/24.

      It don’t mean a thing if the market doesn’t swing!

      Speaking of swing, I’m off to the driving range to work through my bag for a four man scramble tomorrow. I had some trouble hitting my long irons yesterday, and I want to try to fix that. Good Times!

      • Young Tom says:

        Put the ball a little further back in your stance, keep your head slightly behind the ball at impact, and if your right handed, feel like your club head is going to right field. See if that works. If not put a couple of tees in the laces in your shoes. Don’t think about your swing, but think about why you have tees in your shoe laces. Remember to come home, after your round, with the smell of liquor on your breath and the truth is not in you.

      • 16golfer says:

        Great swing dance song, Piker! Good luck in the 4-some tomorrow and KISS. I’ll be at a college football game so will miss the President’s cup unless I can get my son-in-law to tape it for me.

  17. Like I said Lee says:

    Thanks Hombre

    • tony caldaro says:

      we routed yesterday, and get routed today … go figure =)

      • Like I said Lee says:

        I’m exhausted already !

      • Being a baseball fan is like being a trader – very humbling, and it humbles when least expected.

      • Young Tom says:

        Exhausted? Try being a Cubs fan. I once saw a video of a baseball game that edited out all the scratching, pulling of the hat, time between pitches etc, etc…the actual game,batter vs hitter lasted for about 15 minutes.
        You all have a great weekend.

        • tony caldaro says:

          In days gone by …
          Once the batter entered the batters box he needed a time out from the home plate umpire to leave it.
          Also, pitchers were not allowed to leave the mound, go to their mouth, walk around and rub the ball.
          Elroy Face, and others were ejected for throwing what was termed spit balls.
          There were no meetings at the mound catcher, pitcher, infielders, unless accompanied by the pitching coach or manager.
          And of course the strike zone was from the shoulders to the knees, not the waist to the knees.
          Games use to take about two hours, now they are three and four hours.

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