SHORT TERM: rally mode today, DOW +76
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.4%. US index futures bounced around overnight, and the market opened flat at SPX 1679. After an early dip to SPX 1677 the market rallied to 1688 by 10:30. Then after another pullback to SPX 1682 by 11:00, the market rallied to 1692 by 3:00. A dip into the close ended the week at SPX 1691.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.90%. Bonds lost 13 ticks, Crude added 30 cents, Gold slid $7, and the USD was higher. Medium term support moves back up to the 1680 and 1628 pivots, with resistance at the 1699 and 1779 pivots. Last night the FED reported a decline in the Monetary base: $3.528tn v $3.546tn. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 54.8% v 54.9%, and long term Investor sentiment rose: 54.5% v 52.3%. No monthly Payrolls report, or FED speech reports, due to the shutdown.
The market opened flat today but then resumed yesterday’s rally. When the SPX crossed 1685 we posted a tentative green Int. wave A label at yesterday’s 1670 low. Intermediate wave B appears to be currently underway. A 38.2% retracement would give us an upside target of SPX 1693; a 50% retracement SPX 1700. When Int. B concludes we expect the market to head lower in Int. wave C.
Short term support is at the 1680 pivot and SPX 1654-1665, with resistance at the 1699 pivot and SPX 1730. Short term momentum hit overbought today after being quite oversold yesterday. The short term OEW charts flipped positive again with the reversal level now SPX 1687. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend still weak
LONG TERM: bull market