wednesday update

SHORT TERM: another gap down opening, DOW -59

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.7%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:15 the ADP index was reported lower: 166k v 176k. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1687 and continued to decline. The market had closed at SPX 1695 yesterday. Around 10:00 the market found support at exactly the 1680 pivot and began to rally. Heading into the afternoon the SPX had rallied back to 1693 by 1:30, then began to pullback. By 3:00 the SPX had dropped a few points to 1689, and then another pop into the close ended the day at SPX 1694.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 9 ticks, Crude rose $1.85, Gold rallied $24, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1680 and 1628 pivots, with resistance at the 1699 and 1779 pivots. Tomorrow: we may get reports on weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then Factory orders and ISM services at 10:00. Also there is a speech by FED governor Powell at 1:30.

Today we had the third gap down in the past four trading days. And the market ended today only 5 points lower than when this all started, last Friday. All three gaps down openings found a low for the day in the first half hour of trading, and then the market rallied for the rest of that day. Resilient, or end/beginning of quarter buying. Right after the open we labeled a tentative Minor B label at yesterday’s SPX 1697 high. But after a decline to SPX 1680 the market rallied back to 1694. So Minor B may not be over yet.

Short term support is at the 1680 pivot and SPX 1654-1665, with resistance at the 1699 pivot and SPX 1730. Short term momentum vacillated around neutral today. The short term OEW charts are vacillating as well with the reversal level still SPX 1692. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend remains choppy

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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189 Responses to wednesday update

  1. One more swing down imho.
    snp fut-5-min

  2. gauravsuri17 says:

    Tony sir what is your preferred count as lot of noise today it will help the backbenchers like me than

  3. The NDX and RUT look to me like they completed their moves from the late August lows yesterday and are bouncing this afternoon after their initial moves lower. When the bounce completes and they begin their next legs lower then the SPX dips might not be bought so quick. C wave?

    • Agree. the bigger picture is key, crossover on Daily MACD is being established today on TF and NQ. Crossover occurred yesterday on Daily ES, NDX. Plus, leaders are tired as evidenced by today’s action, profits will be, are being taken.

  4. 777daimon says:

    Hold on to ya’ pants….we might be on our way to minimum 1705-1710 …..

  5. H&S trade worked like a charm today, and price reversed to test neckline which is common. Expect h&s to fulfill target, and maybe usher in an important wave low..GL to all.

  6. jackkendo2013octbigup says:

    Look at the VIX reversal.
    DOW Intermediate ii of major 5 of Primary III has completed.
    DOW alternate count will become primary count when DOW makes new high, and then oew SPX count will be forced to follow this count of Intermediate iii of major 5 of Primary III.
    HFT confirmed.

  7. lunker1 says:

    Lee how bout that InnerNet!

  8. RDC says:

    Going long now. Closed shorts.

  9. blackjak100 says:

    According to Fiona’s ED, wave iv could have ended today. Another decent size drop being bought…what’s new. The ED has the right look now, but one more lower low would give it an even better look. I have no clue if we get it or not.

  10. I think the quote from IBD below is a great indication for lower prices. I believe the leaders need to fall to give me confidence for lower prices.
    “Leading growth stocks were hit particularly hard, a potentially worrisome sign. Nearly half the stocks in the IBD 50 lost 2% or more.”
    I am hoping for a close below the 50dma today.

  11. torehund says:

    looks bottomish to me, soooo many abcs and symmerty is good.

    • tommyboys says:

      VIX almost hit 19 today…so many on these blogs want to see markets and economy collapse – for some reason. I want to see them soar – and I’m betting they do.

      • uncle10 says:

        Tommy, We are trying to make money trading the market. You buy and hold. Not everyone does that. Its ok if we buy and short on a more shorter term time frame –different from you just holding for years through big corrections? Right?

      • uncle10 says:

        It seems to me the only people that want to see the markets and economy collapse are our so called representatives/leaders??

      • tommyboys says:


      • uncle10 says:

        Go Bravos!! there is my 3. Have a good one!

  12. jackkendo2013octbigup says:

    Big up alert!
    HFT switched from short to long.
    Big Up!
    Tony’s DOW alternate count is bullish with Major ii of primary III completed.
    DOW Major iii of primary III will make new record high.
    DOW also was an alternate count during end of Aug bottom, and then became primary count.
    The same switching will come when DOW makes new high.

  13. mjtplayer says:

    NYT story/rumor floated just as the S&P was at or nearing the important 1,670 area. You can’t make this stuff up, looks like someone was caught too long and needed a rally to sell into 🙂

    • 16golfer says:

      mjtplayer….probably more true than one could imagine. Think next time it gets there it will go through like a hot knife through butter.

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