tuesday update

SHORT TERM: turnaround Tuesday, DOW +62

Overnight the USG shut down non-essential operations and Asian markets rose 0.3%. European markets opened lower but gained 0.8%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened higher at SPX 1685 and continued to rally. In the opening minutes the SPX hit 1689, then pulled back to 1684 by 10:00. At 10:00 ISM manufacturing was reported higher: 55.2 v 55.7, and the market started to rally again. By 12:30 the SPX had rallied to 1697, and then began to pullback. Nearing 3:30 the SPX hit 1689 then spiked higher in the closing minutes to end the day at 1695.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.15%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude slipped 50 cents, Gold dropped $37, and the USD was lower too. Medium term support remains at the 1680 and 1628 pivots, with resistance at the 1699 and 1779 pivots. Tomorrow: the ADP index at 8:15, and a speech from FED chairman Bernanke at 3:30.

The market opened higher today, despite the USG shut down, and rallied to SPX 1697 before backing off some at the close. After the rally cleared yesterday’s SPX 1687 we labeled the recent decline an ‘abc’ completing a Minor wave A. This abc rally, thus far, appears to be Minor B. When the market realizes, a government that can not agree on a budget has little chance of raising the debt ceiling in two weeks, Minor C should begin.

Short term support is at the 1680 pivot and SPX 1654-1665, with resistance at the 1699 pivot and SPX 1730. Short term momentum hit overbought today and then dipped. The short term OEW charts turned positive with the reversal level now SPX 1692. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend rebounding

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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172 Responses to tuesday update

  1. One more leg up for Major 3 then Major 4 will begin in time

    • oneandonlyuniverse says:

      Gold hit your pivot overnight ( 1279.66) – so what is your call. Here are your comments from Sept 21

      Active Trading ‏@activetrading 21 Sep
      Continue to look for GOLD to likely work lower to 1271-85 pivots, then go from there. Market to 1829 SP 500 before MAJOR correction

  2. torehund says:


    if this graph was a MACD, would you then buy into the global heating theme ?

  3. Pretty solid breakdown in TSLA, slicing through the 10dma on pretty good volume.

  4. This is an alternate pattern that I haven’t read on any of the posts yet, its my favorite.

    From 5.22 SPX did wave A into 6.24
    From 6.24 SPX has done a 3 wave move into 9.19 for an expanded flat B wave.
    1.27 price extension, 2.618 calendar day extension.

    From 9.19 SPX is in the early stages of a larger C wave decline. This pattern correlates well with other risk markets such as high yield credit, yen, and the housing indices.

    Any thoughts?

    • tony caldaro says:

      welcome Topher
      Sounds like a bear market count

    • Topher,
      I’m in agreement with you. These last 3 mos I believe were a ‘B’ wave, with ‘C’ kicking off.
      Any targets (price and time) for ‘C’ to complete? I actually believe there’s a chance to fill the Jan 2nd gap. Crazy, I know.
      Best to you Topher and thanks Tony for your wisdom.

      • I was thinking 1480 to 1500 SPX for price.

        For time, I don’t have a clear opinion. I have a big Fib date in early Jan but seems like a lot of time for a C wave.

      • Thanks Topher. To me the price action is very similar to the summer 2011 correction. Timing cycles had the ‘B’ wave beginning in late Feb 2011 with C wave down in late July 2011.
        I had a time cycle top in May 2013 with the next low 7-8 mos out, which correlates with your expected Jan ’14 low. Interesting to say the least.
        My very short expectations are for a retest of earlier highs (min 1,700 on ES) and failure with price dropping into Nov before any substantial bounce. Just my game plan. Keeping Tony’s count in mind as well.

  5. Possible X Wave Triangle forming in SPX..


  6. mjtplayer says:

    CNBC keeps touting a big interview with POTUS at 4pm, market looks to be trading sideways till then. If the interview is positive and he’s open to negotiation, market rallies tomorrow? If he’s still dug-in and won’t negotiate, market tanks tomorrow?

    • 16golfer says:

      I personally think Obama wants the market to tank to force the Republican hands. Probably got a good idea how far he can push the envelope after his meeting with the Banksters earlier today.

    • mcmasoniam says:

      How stupid can Republicans get, I ask you? If they get slaughtered, it’s their own fault! Here we had Unions and other more liberal organizations starting to scream about ACA being too expensive, etc. and ready to tear somebody a new one. Republicans didn’t have to do a thing except sit back and watch certain persons hang themselves, but noooo; they had to jump in, take center stage and bring on a shut down, which they will be blamed for. Stupid.

  7. jackkendo1987 says:

    Bearish nested 1-2 from Grand:

  8. lunker1 says:

    SPX is playing coy showing bullish nested 1,2’s since 1675 but the Q’s, Naz, R2K and MDY are showing neg D on the daily. MDY is showing potential quadruple neg D on the weekly. it seems we’re due for 1.5-2.0% gap up or down to determine the trend.

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