friday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -70

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.3%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 Personal income (+0.4% v +0.1%)/spending (+0.3% v +0.1%) were reported higher. Also PCE prices came in higher: +0.2% v +0.1%. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1689 and continued lower. The market had closed at SPX 1699 yesterday. Just before 10:00 Consumer sentiment was reported higher: 77.5 v 76.8. Then the market hit SPX 1687 and tried to rally. Around 1:30 the SPX hit 1693 and started to pullback. Around 3:30 the pullback bottomed at 1689. Then the market bounced into a SPX 1692 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.15%. Bonds gained 7 ticks, Crude slipped 40 cents, Gold rallied $12, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1680 and 1628 pivots, with resistance at the 1699 and 1779 pivots. Last night the FED reported Medium Home Sale prices declined: $254.6k v $256.3k, and the M1 multiplier declined: 0.721 v 0.742. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 54.9% v 54.1%.

The market gapped down today for the first time in a month. There were five gap up openings in between. The gap opening jumped over, as has been the case during this bull market, the OEW 1699 pivot range. But found support in the 1680 pivot range at SPX 1687 to end the slide and the market rebounded somewhat. After a rally to SPX 1693 the market went into a trading range for the rest of the day. An interesting week as the market entered another chop-chop mode with a weakening trend. Just like it did prior to the last correct. And the DOW is leading lower again too.

Short term support is at the 1680 pivot and SPX 1654-1665, with resistance at the 1699 pivot and SPX 1730. Short term momentum has maintained a positive divergence since early Monday. Yet the market has only drifted lower. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend weakening

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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33 Responses to friday update

  1. 777daimon says:

    Hi Tony,

    At the end of Friday you switched the primary count with the alternate count on spx and dow. Can you please detail the reasons for that in a more extended comment? They are opposite counts and switching them must have a good reason for that.


    Lucky spirit (777 daimon :D).


  2. lunker1 says:

    SPX Daily RSI very similar to early August.
    “sell the 50…”.


  3. torehund says:

    Interestingly; Japan just recently closed the last plant; and 20 mill pounds of uranium is withdrawn from consumption. A gradual Growth in the US will pull nat and oil upwards, and japan is then ready to go for a New Nuclear boost not to hamper Growth.
    I have never seen a more bullish graph than what is displayed in uranium spot price right now.


  4. OEW coffee club awaiting your weekend commentary, Tony. 🙂 Thanks for the daily.


    • 16golfer says:

      See you tomorrow jedi!


      • Hey golfer, If you want to talk “humbling,” my 11 year old daughter just took me 3 holes to 2, with 4 holes tied on a little par 3 course nearby. And she did it using my new wedge! The greens are so uneven and chopped up on this crappy little course, that it really comes down to getting your tee-chip shot real close to the pin, otherwise it becomes a putting nightmare. And tonight, she had the stuff 😉

        My only other play this weekend will be with my three kids on a real nice par 3, with most holes 5 holes 147 yards + (the longest is 208 to the center of the green), and only two less than 100 yards. Very well maintained, country club quality greens, etc. Sunday afternoon we’ll be at the driving range working through the bag, and weather permitting, I’ll have three rounds this week with my buds. If you’re playing, I hope you break 80!


  5. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Continuation of the Ugly Weekly Candles. 😉
    Have a great weekend all.


  6. Tony, good afternoon. Are IVs typically 10 to 15% or is it based on IIIs move? Thank you, I am way behind on my tutoring lessons.


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