wednesday update

SHORT TERM: decline continues, DOW -61

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.1%. US index futures were again lower overnight, and at 8:30 Durable goods orders were reported higher: +0.1% v -7.4%. The market opened one point above yesterday’s SPX 1697 close, then started to pullback. Just before 10:00 the SPX hit 1692 and started to rally. At 10:00 New homes sales were reported higher: 421k v 394k. At noon the SPX hit 1702, and then started to pullback again. Around 2:00 SPX 1692 was retested, then the market tried to rally. At 3:00 the SPX hit 1698, then pulled back to close at 1693.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.25%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude slid 80 cents, Gold gained $11, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1680 and 1628 pivots, with resistance at the 1699 and 1779 pivots. Tomorrow: Q2 GDP (est. +2.5%) at 8:30, along with the weekly Jobless claims. Then at 10:00 Pending home sales, and a speech from FED governor Stein.

The market opened slightly higher, but then immediately pulled back to the lower end of the OEW 1699 pivot range. The then market rallied ten points to SPX 1702. But oddly enough completely retraced that rally when retesting SPX 1692 at 2:00. The price action, since yesterday’s SPX 1708 high, has been uncharacteristic of this uptrend. During the advance from SPX 1627 to 1730, not one of the rallies was fully retraced. Today, both rallies from yesterday’s SPX 1695 low have been fully retraced. This is starting to look more like a correction than an ongoing uptrend. QE 2 GDP tomorrow could be a catalyst in either direction. Market needs to hold the lower end of the 1699 pivot range.

Short term support is at the 1680 and SPX 1654-1665, with resistance at the 1699 pivot and SPX 1730. Short term momentum is still displaying a positive divergence. The short term OEW charts remain negative with the reversal level still SPX 1702. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend getting erratic

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

161 Responses to wednesday update

  1. Nky says:

    so far following this chart pretty well (posted by AndySignal over a week ago).

  2. waddaguess says:


    Any chance for an extending major 5th?

  3. gary61b says:

    I just have this bearish feeling that this is a real slow to start prim. iv., that is waiting for Oct.1 to show its ugly head. thanks Tony.

  4. The arrival of Sir TiredLee is due any minute now.

  5. H D says:

    Tony, when u have a minute. What is the alt count? TY

  6. torehund says:

    boots are reluctant to give away any shares, even when the live ticker says a lower number on has to og up quite a bit to fill an order and still the ticker remains same nonexistent level.

  7. Emily Thorne says:

    Why would there be fear or panic ?
    All obstacles have been removed, are being removed or don’t matter !
    Syria, it’s already an old story and whatever happens, Russia and the USA will find a middle ground.
    Iran is on the apparent path of normalization or so they say. It’s probably totally untrue but all that matters is the current perception, not the reality.
    Europe is great ! All is solved thanks to Draghi and if it’s not, he is there ready to solve it, again and again. To wit, major European stock markets have been on a bullish rampage as GDP growth is not even averaging 1% !
    The FED has announced QE Eternity and the bonds vigilantes seem unable or unwilling to mount any significant attack.
    The debt ceiling issue will be resolved one way or another following some kind of deal.
    In the last few days Apple sold 9 millions basically identical phones to the same ones they have already been sticking to their adoring crowds for the last 10 years, with little or no improvements.
    We can’t open a newspaper in the world without reading about how people can’t make ends meet in most civilized countries, let alone in EM, yet VISA and MASTERCARD are at ATH.
    SPX closed down 5 days in a row and ye we are only 2% from ATH !
    Really, what is there to fear ?

  8. jackkendo1987 says:

    Uncle Cashin:

    Behind the scene HFT talks cropped.

  9. Finding it hard to be convinced by the bullish views here…fading the rally @1698

    • Volume just picked up to the downside, if it turns up again, then I am closing my SDS, otherwise I am on the short side for now… the problem is we have several days left, and market grinds up all the time. So low vol and bears will get hurt.

Comments are closed.