tuesday update

SHORT TERM: pullback continues, DOW -67

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 9:00 Case-Shiller was reported higher: +12.4% v +12.1%, and the FAHB housing index was reported higher too: +1.0% v +0.7%. The market opened one point below yesterday’s SPX 1702 close, and continued to decline. At 10:00 Consumer confidence was reported lower: 79.7% v 81.5%. The decline continued until around 10:30 when the SPX hit 1695. Setting up a positive short term divergence the market then started to rally. Just before 2:00 the SPX hit 1708, then started to pullback. The pullback continued right into the close as the SPX hit 1696, then bounced to end the day at 1697.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 16 ticks, Crude lost 25 cents, Gold added $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops to the 1680 and 1628 pivots, with resistance now at the 1699 and 1779 pivots. Tomorrow: Durable goods orders at 8:30, then New home sales at 10:00.

The market opened lower today, pulled back to SPX 1695 (the exact low of the pre-FOMC low) then rallied to 1708. After that it pulled back again, but this time to SPX 1696. This appears to be a bit unusual for this uptrend. If the Int. wave iv pullback, from SPX 1730, is forming a flat. Then a retest of SPX 1695 would be considered normal. However, a drop below the lower end of the OEW 1699 pivot range (1692) would not. So some caution is advised.

Short term support is at the 1680 pivot and SPX 1654-1665, with resistance at the 1699 pivot and SPX 1730. Short term momentum bounced off a negative divergence, but ended the day oversold. The short term OEW charts vacillated again today ending negative with the reversal level now SPX 1702. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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138 Responses to tuesday update

  1. pbnj123 says:

    I know the importance of 1692 but it looks like a descending wedge (which is bullish) which terminates below the 1692 level – bear trap?

  2. H D says:

    -5+10-10+5= happy hour:mrgreen: 13 days up, 5 down

    • jackkendo1987 says:

      happy hours? Loving it. But this forum discourages tradings, only about views, all theory?

      • H D says:

        triangles and me don’t agree, 1691.70 was the first BS FED news price, Monday gap, we have found that price today- they always come back. I am not seeing the swagger from the 1730 bulls though:mrgreen:

  3. Any one buy nugt today

  4. kloutt says:

    TF made it to the tippy top and of course NOT as single trader bought TF at 1080 hoping for a blow off ….. as expected everyone exited perfectly and bulls win again HA HA HA !!!!!

    PS if ur underwater after buying at 1080 sell the bounce

  5. infantguru says:

    Weekly S1 pivot hit.
    Market hasnt improved much since morning to trigger rally yet. Hasnt deteriorated either.
    Limbo time, I guess

  6. gary61b says:

    ES is stuck in value today between 1695-1685 waiting for the break out.

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