tuesday update

SHORT TERM: pullback continues, DOW -67

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 9:00 Case-Shiller was reported higher: +12.4% v +12.1%, and the FAHB housing index was reported higher too: +1.0% v +0.7%. The market opened one point below yesterday’s SPX 1702 close, and continued to decline. At 10:00 Consumer confidence was reported lower: 79.7% v 81.5%. The decline continued until around 10:30 when the SPX hit 1695. Setting up a positive short term divergence the market then started to rally. Just before 2:00 the SPX hit 1708, then started to pullback. The pullback continued right into the close as the SPX hit 1696, then bounced to end the day at 1697.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 16 ticks, Crude lost 25 cents, Gold added $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops to the 1680 and 1628 pivots, with resistance now at the 1699 and 1779 pivots. Tomorrow: Durable goods orders at 8:30, then New home sales at 10:00.

The market opened lower today, pulled back to SPX 1695 (the exact low of the pre-FOMC low) then rallied to 1708. After that it pulled back again, but this time to SPX 1696. This appears to be a bit unusual for this uptrend. If the Int. wave iv pullback, from SPX 1730, is forming a flat. Then a retest of SPX 1695 would be considered normal. However, a drop below the lower end of the OEW 1699 pivot range (1692) would not. So some caution is advised.

Short term support is at the 1680 pivot and SPX 1654-1665, with resistance at the 1699 pivot and SPX 1730. Short term momentum bounced off a negative divergence, but ended the day oversold. The short term OEW charts vacillated again today ending negative with the reversal level now SPX 1702. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp