wednesday update

SHORT TERM: no taper market makes new highs, DOW +147

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Housing starts (891k v 896k), and Building permits (918k v 943k) were reported lower. The market opened one point above yesterday’s SPX 1705 close. The market pulled back to SPX 1700 by 12:30, and then started to drift higher ahead of the FOMC statement at 2:00: The market then spiked higher on news of no QE tapering. By 3:00 the SPX made new highs hitting 1729, dipped to 1724, then closed out the day at 1726.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.15%. Bonds gained 47 ticks, Crude rose $2.50, Gold jumped $54, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1699 and 1680 pivots, with resistance at the 1762 and 1779 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30; then Exiting home sales, Leading indicators, and the Philly FED at 10:00.

The market opened quietly today, as it has since early Monday. Then at 2:00 the fireworks began as the much anticipated QE tapering was not announced. On the “stand pat” news the markets soared to new all time highs. Inflection point resolved. Our preferred count is that this uptrend is Major wave 5 of Primary III. This is the count that has been posted on the DOW charts. There is an alternate count, which is much talked about on the blog, that is even more bullish. Once we have had time to review the charts we will comment further.

Short term support is now at SPX 1710 and the 1699 pivot, with resistance at the 1762 and 1779 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day quite overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1691. Best to your trading on post FOMC day!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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301 Responses to wednesday update

  1. joma11 says:

    To the vegaguy that said Tony is a fake.

    I have been following this blog since its inception andI have never written a comment. Morever I have no need to defend Tony, he can do it himself.
    But I think there are some things to point out from my side, its my personal opinion and belongs just only to myself (disclaimer). I have been working in markets since 1989 (in diferent assets). You can be agreed or not with tech analysis, EW, Lindsay cycles, Kondratiev……But what I realized, is the most difficult thing in my career was finding people with “No bias”, bull o bear. It is human to have a bias. Probably the FX traders are thee ones with less or not bias at all, their change their mind in seconds.
    And that is exactly what I like from Tony in his EW, he can be right or wrong but 99% of the time he inot having a bias. Second, in the different organizations I have been, average ratio of right against wrong position was 60% even the best traders I saw and Knew really good ones had more or less this ratio of accuracy. You know the secret to make money?, Management of p&l, the good trader made a lot of money even double up the winners with the rights, and when they were loosing with the wrongs the cut positions right away.
    I see EW as another tool, useful sometimes, but nothing is the wholy bible, flexibility is the name of the game. The way you use it is another story.
    with Respect I think you are confusing wheat with chaff.
    As I see (personal opinion) you´ve got bias, and you made money in bull markets good for you. And with all respect you didnt say anything about performance in bear ones. But again that is not the issue. The important matter is to use EW as a tool, managing P&L if you trade based on any method and on top of that, respect the markets and the rest of the people. Markets never ever are wrong or mistaken, we are the ones making the mistake.
    Tony the other day I understood you said tha bellweather for you in Europe is Footse, I disagree for me it is Eurostoxx 50 (the most liquid future), or Stoxx 600)
    Best regards.


  2. budfox9450 says:

    From Bud – Free 9/21 – Weekend, SP500 BoYu Charts.…..Thank you Tony.


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