monday update

SHORT TERM: gap up and go, DOW +141

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.5%. European markets opened higher but closed mixed. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up at the open to SPX 1662. The SPX had closed at 1655 on Friday. By 10:00 the SPX hit 1666, pulled back to 1662 by 10:30, and started to move higher again. Around 2:30 the SPX hit 1672 and then closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.95%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.20%. Bonds gained 11 ticks, Crude $1.50, Gold slipped $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at the 1680 and 1699 pivots. Nothing on the economic agenda tomorrow.

The market gapped up at the open today for the third time in five trading days. By 10:00 the SPX had hit a slightly higher Int. wave B high at 1666. Then after a small pullback the rally move even higher. With today’s rally clearing the SPX 1658-1667 resistance zone it would appear the OEW 1680 pivot range is next (1673-1687). Negative divergences remain on the short term charts and the daily charts are now overbought. As a reminder we posted this over the weekend:

Short term resistance is at SPX 1658-1667 and the 1680 pivot range. The rally hit the lower range on Friday. Fifty percent and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements of Int. wave A suggest SPX: 1669 and 1678. Again just about the same ranges. The Minor fourth wave of Int. wave A was at SPX 1670. So all indications are that Intermediate wave B should be topping out soon.

Short term support now rises to SPX 1658-1667 and SPX 1648-1649, with reistance at the 1680 and 1699 pivots. Short term momentum continues to display a negative divergence. The short term OEW charts are positive with the reversal level now SPX 1655. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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622 Responses to monday update

  1. bhtrade says:

    One week ago (SPX 1639) this was at extreme fear 17. It took a 45 point SPX rally just to get it to neutral 49

  2. gtoptions says:

    SPY ~ Doji @ an inflection point? Hmmm.
    I give it a 50% chance of going either way. LOL 😉

    • gtoptions says:

      But Leaning negative… Just so ya know 😉

      • I have to say that I don’t like the symmetrical triangle SPY formed intraday. Odds favor a continuation based on that, but it’s not certain either way. I would be surprised if the market doesn’t print above the 1680 pivot tomorrow, probably at the open. That could be the top but would be bad for the count.

        • gtoptions says:

          Minor 5 ended with similar pattern. Take a look. Diagonal pattern leading to triangle, with close at the high. It would be fitting for Int. b to end the same way. Confuse as many people as you can. Just a thought. GL

  3. surfonmobile says:

    Most of the symbols in my portfolios are in red today. Maybe tomorrow will be a down day?

  4. fishonhook says:

    5 min SPX
    Broke the uptrend line and back-kissed
    Fingers crossed for a little reprieve!

  5. phil1247 says:

    DOW 60 min upper boll band curling over

    hints at test of 20 period ma.

    thats 100 points below here

  6. bhtrade says:

    The typical final 30 min long liquidators can take today off for a change – now its the short cover’s turn

  7. vorfahrt says:

    It seems like a lot of people were eager to short the market a week ago and are now being squeezed really hard. Ouch, but there was way too much short-eagerness here and in general.

    • Vor I agree…however I come here for guidance and there was a tremendous amount of wave B down imminent rhetoric going on in the last 2 weeks.

    • Hi Tony, your market commentary is very valuable as are comments from contributors like Lee and RC and a select other few. It is sad to see over 600 comments on a day the market has moved 10 points. The comments section is becoming as invaluable as a yahoo board or Daneric message area. I hope you are able to take back the comments area.

  8. phil1247 says:

    POST # 600

    nothing to see here…….

    move along

    congrats tony

  9. Hi every body
    Is it good time buy nugt,
    I bought eve last fri 23.62 now 21.80
    I don,t know buy more or sell

  10. I have convinced myself that all the mkt is waiting for is for me to cover my shorts, then it will drop like Oct/87 on steroids.

  11. It seems there will be no sell off today. I’d cover my shorts.It was worth a try, but just did not materialize.

  12. I have been waiting for my child to get home from all day. I showed him the $spx chart and put a crayon in his hand. He wrote ” Big Down ” and asked for his allowance.

  13. phil1247 says:

    cash dow HWB is 15212…about 40 points different from YM

  14. jackkendo1987 says:

    From HFT …, SPX will certainly move above 1687 tomorrow (not today), clear 1680 pivot.
    Interested to see what Tony will say tomorrow when the 1680 pivot gets cleared.

    tony caldaro says:
    September 9, 2013 at 7:42 pm
    The SPX clearing the 1680 pivot range would require a serious look

  15. phil1247 says:

    ym trying to push thru HWB again

  16. Hi every body
    Is it good time buy sds

  17. Completing point 5 of intraday triangle right now.

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