friday update

SHORT TERM: choppy market continues, DOW -31

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher but lost 1.2%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Personal income (+0.1% vs +0.3%)/spending (+0.1% vs +0.5%) and PCE prices (+0.1% vs + 0.2%) were all reported higher. The market opened one point above yesterday’s SPX 1638 close, ticked up to 1640, then started to pullback. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported higher: 53.0 vs 52.3. Then at 10:00 Consumer sentiment was reported higher as well: 82.1 vs 80.0. The pullback continued into the afternoon, with short 2-3 point bounces, until the SPX hit 1628 just after 1:00. Then the market rebounded to SPX 1636 right after Kerry’s press conference on Syria. After a pullback to SPX 1631 by 2:00 the market bounced back to 1636 just past 3:00. Then another pullback hit SPX 1628 just before a 1633 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.75%. Bonds lost 13 ticks, Crude slid $1.10, Gold dropped $12, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at the 1680 and 1699 pivots. Last night the FED reported another decline in the M1 multiplier: 0.740 vs 0.758. Today the WLEI was reported lower as well: 54.2% vs 54.7%. The WLEI has been declining slowly since hitting a peak at 58.8% in early February.

Another choppy trading day as the market makes lower highs and lows from yesterday. Around 1:00 we posted a tentative green Minor b label at yesterday’s SPX 1646 high. This suggests Minor c of Intermediate C could be underway. The rationale is simple. After Wednesday’s apparent Minor wave a low at SPX 1627, the market has rallied in an abc pattern: 1641-1631-1646. Today the market continued yesterday’s afternoon decline dropping to SPX 1628. This suggests that abc rally has completed. The market may, however, bounce around a bit further. As Minor b of Int. A was an expanding triangle. Yet, either way the trend is still down heading into September.

Short term support remains at the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1636-1640 and SPX 1648-1649. Short term momentum remained between oversold and neutral all day. The short term OEW charts remain negative with the reversal level now SPX 1646. Best to your holiday weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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43 Responses to friday update

  1. StemSki says:

    Hello Tony and the rest of the Tonyites!!

    As always, great analysis. I thought I would share 2 charts that have helped me keep track of the big picture. The 1st one is through today and it uses 2 moving averages and 2 TII indicators (I use the top one most of the time). Pretty good at determining trend changes on a weekly scale.
    I also use a similar one on a 60 min time frame to make trades (not investments). I almost never short the market unless I am absolutely sure that the main trend is down. Anyway, the second one is from the 2007 top through the end of 2008.


  2. Goldman issue’s sell in 2nd Qtr, but ironically bought GLD in the 2nd qtr and became the 7th biggest holder


    • torehund says:

      Swedishfish; gold has had a good can of course continue. I closed all my goldminers positions last week, but bought a very small position in a miner that has not yet had a run…just in case. Its called Nordic mines AB, and if you are Sweedish you may know about it..


  3. budfox9450 says:

    Tony – Enjoy the days off, and relax….


  4. student8888 says:

    Tony, are the counts different for the SPX and RUT? RUT made a lower low today. Have a great weekend.


  5. Pingback: Risk-Reward Report – week 35 | The Risk-Reward Report

  6. M1 says:

    It looks to me this third wave down may be subdividing.
    Happy holidays to all.
    Thanks Tony


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