wednesday update

SHORT TERM: flat opening, dip, then rally DOW +48

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.0%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.5%. US index futures were slightly lower overnight, but the market opened flat at SPX 1630. In the first few minutes the SPX dipped to 1627, and then began to rally. At 10:00 Pending home sales were reported lower: -1.3% vs -0.4%. The rally continued until 1:00 when the SPX hit 1641. Then after a pullback to SPX 1635 by 2:30 it tried to rally again. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 1640, and then pulled back again to close at 1635.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.40%. Bonds lost 14 ticks, Crude gained 40 cents, Gold was flat, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at the 1680 and 1699 pivots. Tomorrow: Q2 GDP (est. +2.1%) and weekly Jobless claims at 8:30.

After a flat opening, and lower downtrend low, the market then staged a good rally from SPX 1627-1641. The rally was well overdue since the market was extremely oversold short term. Today’s rally, however, had difficulty breaking through the area from which it broke down: SPX 1638-1640. Should the market manage to clear this resistance area in the next few days, there would be a possibility that SPX 1627 was a, much discussed among some, Intermediate wave A low. If not, the market should continue on our projected Int. wave C down scenario.

Short term support remains at the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1636-1640 and SPX 1648-1649. Short term momentum rose to neutral during the day. The short term OEW charts remain negative with the reversal level now SPX 1653. Best to your trading with tomorrow’s GDP number.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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393 Responses to wednesday update

  1. blackjak100 says:

    Tony-

    Any new update on the Int A scenario still ongoing scenario from the OEW community? Last night you said ‘split’…how about now?

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    • twosidedtape1 says:

      All I have to say is….is Int B over today? lol.

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      • blackjak100 says:

        If you really think an Int wave last 3 days…I guess you’re right.

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      • twosidedtape1 says:

        I don’t think this is Int B, but that’s just my opinion. Market will tell us soon enough.

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      • jparkins10 says:

        BJ, during this bull market, there has been several instances of 4,5 & 6 days….and one instance of 2 days!

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      • blackjak100 says:

        jpark…int waves? I don’t think so, but I could be wrong. Int waves should retrace more than 30pts. Minute/Minor waves go 30 pts – not Int waves. Maybe I’m completely off base.

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      • jparkins10 says:

        BJ, yes, Int. waves, all in corrections, both up & down

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    • tony caldaro says:

      Think it is still split
      Posted Int. C underway on SPX hourly
      And alternate Int. B underway on DOW hourly
      It’s up to the market now

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      • blackjak100 says:

        I’m just confused how an Int wave can last 3 days. Int iv lasted 22 days…essentially a fib 21 days. If we are going to 1530-1560, I would think Int A has to retrace farther than 1627 even without the time factor. Then, not to ever show any +div on the hourly is mind boggling for a wave that should go 50+ pts. Anyhow, I’m not going to rehash my view or count as I’ve posted it a few times but stayed consistent with Int A still underway.

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      • andysingal says:

        Tony,
        Is it possible we see 1600-1611 followed 1720 anthem 1520.thnx

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  2. Leetired says:

    Everybody having fun ?
    That’s trading baby !

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  3. SimpleFinanz says:

    Tony,
    Many thanks for the charts!
    In EUR – USD daily chart you noted EUR is uptrending vs USD.
    Chart support appears to be around 127, is that the likely target?
    or EUR should go below that level?

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